No spam ever. Unsubscribe in one click. By submitting your email address, you indicate your consent to receiving email marketing messages from us.

Black Caviar Lightning Tips 2018 - Expert guide to finding the Lightning Stakes winner

  • Black Caviar is the most famous winner of the race
Heatherly

Form students are faced with a unique situation heading into Saturday’s Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) as all 10 runners are first-up from a spell.

So trying to find the winner will be based on how each runner performed last campaign, recent trials and jump outs, record at the track and trip etc.

Without any doubt, the Peter and Paul Snowden-trained Redzel is the horse to beat.

He’s aiming for seven consecutive wins, is unbeaten in two runs at Flemington, has trialled sensationally and has claimed The Everest (1200m) and Darley Classic (1200m) at his two most recent runs.

But is $1.80 a fair price? And can we do better looking for a value placegetter?

Going through the form of each and every runner, I couldn’t make a case for anything to get close to Redzel – until I got to the last horse – Formality.

If we use Redzel as the benchmark, Formality has a couple of formlines to suggest she could indeed go close to beating Redzel. I repeat, GO CLOSE, which is why I’ll be backing her for the Place.

Redzel’s best run at Randwick was in The Everest where he stopped the clock at 1:08.360 while carrying 58.5kg. 

In comparison, Formality ran 1:08.830 in the Silver Shadow Stakes (1200m) at Randwick when she was first-up last campaign while carrying 56kg.

Again, Redzel’s best performance at Flemington over 1200m was in the Darley Classic (1200m) where he ran 1:08.740 with 58.5kg.

Formality finished 0.3 of length from Merchant Navy in the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) at Flemington in a time of 1:09.100 when carrying 55kg.

So on average, Formality has run three lengths below the benchmark set by Redzel, but she has a couple of things in her favour on Saturday to suggest she can narrow the gap.

She gets into Saturday’s event with 53.5kg and has blinkers for the first time – and blinkers the first time on Fastnet Rock progeny generally sees them improve.

She’s drawn in barrier 8 – right next to Redzel – and if she can take a sit on his back and get a nice cart into the race, she’s a great chance of mounting a strong challenge in the final 200m.

I think the weight turnaround gives her about a length, and the blinkers could possible give her another length.

That still gives Redzel a length to spare over the Lindsay Park filly, but at $2.80 for the Place, I think she represents good value.

If you ignore her run in the Golden Rose (1400m) where she didn't get the trip, her other fourstarts last campaign resulted in two Group 2 wins, a Group 3 win and a Group 1 3rd placing. 

Those are the stats of a serious sprinter, and I think she goes into this race a bit underrated.


/*

Share this with your friends

To:
From:
Your comments:

Black Caviar Lightning Tips 2018 - Expert guide to finding the Lightning Stakes winner

The Group 1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) will be held at Flemington Racecourse on February 17, and is worth $750,000 in prizemoney.

Read more »

You have unread messages

    You have unread messages