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Black Caviar Lightning Tips - Sunlight to shine at Flemington

  • Black Caviar is the most famous winner of the race
Luke Currie riding Sunlight

What makes Saturday’s Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) hard to analyse is the fact seven of the 11 runners are resuming from a spell. 

Also, Osborne Bulls, In Her Time, Divine Quality and Graff have never raced over 1000m – and I think this is a disadvantage to Osborne Bulls and Divine Quality as that pair are get back and run on types.

If we compare that pair’s 200m splits from the 600m mark at Flemington, Osborne Bulls has produced a superior closing sprint over a slightly longer trip so I can’t see Divine Quality outsprinting him. 

Osborne Bulls 10.82, 10.45 and 11.27 over 1200m.
Divine Quality 10.81, 11.12 and 11.35 over 1100m.

The two-year-old Jedastar gets in with just 44kg and is likely to take up the running from Written By who has a fitness edge on most and will want to make the most of that by being on speed. 

Written By ran his final 600m at Caulfield over 1000m nearly six lengths quicker than Jedastar, and although Jedastar gets in with the light weight, I don’t think she can outmuscle Written By. 

Likewise, Sunlight is running her final 600m at Flemington over 1200m approximately three lengths quicker than Jedastar did over 1000m so Sunlight also rates higher.

Sunlight finished six lengths 2nd to Nature Strip when first-up over 1050m last campaign, but trainer Tony McEvoy has said she is much more forward for this first-up assignment. 

Sunlight had the measure of all the boys in the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) at Flemington, and she was unlucky to have not finished much closer to the older horses in the Manikato Stakes (1200m) where she never day daylight – no pun intended. 

This is an extremely classy filly who not only has the right form to win a race like this, but she maps perfectly and is likely to get a soft run behind Jedastar and Written By.

I think she’s slightly better than Written By and can peel off his back and edge him out, while the other three-year-olds, Graff and Lean Mean Machine, look better suited in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m).
Missrock is out of form, this is a tough assignment for Battle Hero and Glenall, and I think In Her Time and Osborne Bulls rate as the biggest danger to Sunlight and Written By. 

However, they may struggle to pick the three-year-olds up over 1000m, especially Sunlight who carries just 53.5kg.


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Black Caviar Lightning Tips - Sunlight to shine at Flemington

What makes Saturday’s Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) hard to analyse is the fact seven of the 11 runners are resuming from a spell.

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