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Memsie Stakes Tips: Expert guide to finding the Caulfield Group 1 winner

  • Who will win the Memsie Stakes?
  • 12-strong line-up set for the first Group 1 of the season
Can Black Heart Bart go back-to-back?

With Caulfield rated a Good 4 and nothing but clear skies leading up to Saturday’s Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m), reigning champ Black Heart Bart will get ideal conditions for his title defence. 

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The Darren Weir-trained son of Blackfriars has built an imposing record at the track and trip, having won four from five with his only miss being a 3rd placing last start when resuming in the PB Lawrence Stakes.

As well as being first-up and slightly underdone, Black Heart Bart was resuming on a Soft 6, and although he still goes ok on rain-affected ground, he’s clearly at his best on Good-rated tracks. 

Before the PB Lawrence, Weir advised that Black Heart Bart was in need of a run to bring him to his top, and he would be cherry ripe for the Memsie.

He jumped well in the PB Lawrence and settled in 5th position while Charmed Harmony set the early speed from Harntell.

With the race  being run to suite those up on pace, Hartnell’s class saw him take over and prove too good, while Charmed Harmony held down 2nd place and Black Heart Bart worked past a couple to get 3rd.

Considering Black Heart Bart had pace, fitness and track conditions against him, the run was far better than it looked, and when he lines up on Saturday with a favourable Good track and added fitness, he can sit that bit closer if he needs to and that will cancel out any on-pace bias if Charmed Harmony tries to dictate terms up in front.

With most of the top-class rivals preparing for longer trips deeper in the spring, there are only a few genuine dangers over this trip.

Le Romain has finished runner-up in all four runs over 1400m, but he was a bit disappointing first-up as the class runner in the Missile Stakes (1200m).

He’s since trialled but hasn’t set the world on fire yet this time in.

Stablemate Tosen Stardom is more than capable of running a big race, but considering Weir said he was more forward than Black Heart Bart last start, it’s hard to see him turning the tables.

Hey Doc is all class and he did resume with a big win in the Aurie’s Star Handicap (1200m), but his record of two 3rd placings from four starts at Caulfield has me concerned. 

Charmed Harmony is capable of running another big race from the front – he’s third-up and loves the track and trip.

And last but not least, former Perth galloper Vega Magic is undefeated in two runs for the Lindsay Park stable, and he returned in great order with a win over Brave Smash in the Regal Roller Stakes (1200m).

He won the Group 1 The Goodwood defeating Missrock, while Hey Doc was further back in the field.

He did a massive job to carry so much more weight than his rivals and still win last time. 

If Black Heart Bart doesn’t bring his A-game, Vega Magic will be there to pounce, but as long as the track is rated Good, Bart is the one to beat.

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Memsie Stakes Tips: Expert guide to finding the Caulfield Group 1 winner

Who will win the first Group 1 of the new season? Get our expert tips to finding the Memsie Stakes winner.

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