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Railway Stakes Tips 2017: Weights to play big part in Railway Stakes

  • Who will win the Ascot Group 1?
  • Weights look set to decide the outcome

$1 million in prizemoney is up for grabs in Saturday’s Group 1 Railway Stakes (1600m) at Ascot where weights play a big part under handicap conditions.

In the past seven years, horses carrying between 52kg and 53.5kg have won six times with Luckygray being the only runner in that period to carry 58kg and win.

In 2017, Black Heart Bart has to carry 59kg and will have to overcome a 50-year weight carrying record if he’d to prove successful.

He’s clearly the class runner but it will be a herculean effort to give that much weight to some highly-credentialed gallopers and still come away with the win. 

Last year’s winner, Scales Of Justice, has to carry 4.5kg more this time around, but with a big weight swing to a horse that defeated him last time, I can’t see him going back-to-back. 

Silverstream defeated Great Shot and Scales of Justice in the Waroa-Lee Steere Stakes (1400m) last start which is traditionally the best guide to finding the Railway Stakes winner.

Silversteam carried 57kg and now drops to 53.5kg while Great Shot and Scales Of Justice carried 59kg and now drop to 53.5kg and 57.5kg respectively.

On weights alone, Great Shot has the advantage dropping 5.5kg into Saturday’s assignment, and the fact Silverstream has come up with the outside gate gives Great Shot an even better chance of turning the tables.

Great Shot and Scales Of Justice went toe to toe out in front last time but the reigning Railway champ couldn’t get past Great Shot – so with a 4kg swing in the favour of Great Shot, I can’t see Scales Of Justice getting past him this time either.

A number of horses have performed well at the track and distance, and when you use weight and times as a measure, Great Shot has produced the best performance.

Best track and distance performance:

Variation – 1st - 01:37.08 (56.5kg) WA Guineas
Scales Of Justice – 1st - 01:36.13 (53kg) Railway Stakes
Great Shot – 1st - 1:36.510 (58kg) Old Comrade Stakes
Silverstream – 2nd 1:38.560 (56.5kg) Starstruck Classic
Cosmic Storm 1st - 1:36.43 (54kg) BM72
Dispostion – 2nd - 1:36.04 (56.5kg) WA Guineas (2014)
Pounamu – 1st - 1:36.71 (55.5kg) BM72

He ran 1:36.51 when winning the Old Comrade Stakes at his fifth run last campaign when carrying 58kg.

He now heads into Saturday’s feature at his fifth run from a spell and only has to carry 53.5kg.

Unlike many others that will need some luck in running, Great Shot is a natural leader or will sit just off the speed at worse.

From barrier 8 (if emergencies don’t run), the only horse that is likely to take him on is Scales Of Justice.

Great Shot proved he could outgun that galloper last time and with the weight advantage in his favour, he should have him covered again as he’s set to peak based on previous campaigns.   

Tom Melbourne and Ulmann are nicely weighted and loom as the biggest threats, but Tom Melbourne will probably run 2nd again while Ulmann gets 3rd.

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Railway Stakes Tips 2017: Weights to play big part in Railway Stakes

The Group 1 Railway Stakes (1600m) takes place at Perth’s Ascot Racecourse and weights look set to play a big part on Saturday.

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