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Caulfield Tips April 27 - Saturday best bets for Caulfield

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 26 Apr 2019
  • 3 to 4 best bets for each Caulfield meeting.
  • Previous results included
Caulfileld racing action

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Caulfield? 

Our form analyst gives you their expert racing tips for Victorian racing each weekend including Caulfield - the home of the Caulfield Cup.

See our free Caulfield tips below:

Caulfield Tips - April 27

Race 1 - 12:05pm Keno Classic Handicap (1000m)
The opening race on the program at Caulfield looks a two horse affair between William Thomas and the Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained PROPELLE. With race fitness on her side, I’m keen on the latter. I thought she was good first-up at Ballarat, just being nosed out by Ben Hercules on the line. The leader went 10.7 lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m and she just didn’t have the explosive turn of foot first-up. She went to Caulfield at her last start and was given a very tough run, being three-wide no cover throughout and I thought her effort to sick on for third behind Columbus Circle and Leiter was outstanding. Despite the tough run, she ran 9.3 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m for an overall figure of 7.9 lengths above benchmark. That is the best last start figure in the race and should take her a long way here. The John Price-trained William Thomas is the clear danger. The Nicconi gelding has plenty of talent but has been off the scene for 328 days and I couldn’t find any public trials or jumpouts for him. 

Race 2 - 12:40pm Keno Fun Money Handicap (1400m)
On a tricky meeting with plenty of short priced favourites, my best bet of the program is the Scott Brunton-trained MANDELA EFFECT. I loved the style of his last start victory at Bendigo, the pattern was in his favour that day but he really savaged the line. He ran the fastest last 1000m of the meeting, then just the 25th fastest last 800m and 24th-fastest last 200m before running the seventh-fastest last 400m and ninth-fastest last 200m of the meeting. His last start here at Caulfield was over the 1400m where he defeated Streets Of Avalon, who we saw win a Group 3 over the same track and distance just seven days ago. Scott Brunton is a master trainer and he doesn’t travel horses just a for a trip away. Brunton has had 12 runners in Victoria over the last 6 months for five winners and a profit on turnover of 198.33 percent. Brunton spoke after Mandela Effect won his last race at Bendigo, saying that this is the best horse he has ever trained and that’s good enough for me to launch into him here.

Previous Caulfield Tips:

April 20

Race 2 - 12:50pm Bill Collins Handicap (2000m)
I thought the Chris Waller-trained BIRTH OF VENUS has flown under the radar in his two runs in Australia. He was given no chance in his Australian debut at The Valley, he was slow away then back and wide in a slowly run race and was outsprinted the final 600m. He stayed at 1600m second-up and was a hidden gem. The leader Pria Eclipse went 7.3 lengths slower than class benchmark to the 600m, giving horse back in the field no chance. Meech made a move at the 800m and he ran the fastest 800m-600m split but was then outsprinted. He ran the seventh-fastest 600m-400m and fifth-fastest 400m-200m before balancing up and running the fastest last 200m of the race. He has been outsprinted in two slowly run mile races and he should love getting out beyond that distance, up to 2000m now. He looks a good each-way bet in a race where I can find plenty of negatives for the favourites. 
Result (3rd)

Race 6 - 3:15pm Geoff Murphy Handicap (1100m)
It was hard to not be impressed with the Chris Waller-trained VOILA in her recent Flemington jumpout. She just cruised around the 800m jumpout in very quick time, as the jockey sat motionless, never asking the three-year-old filly for an effort. She has performed ok in Sydney but looks better suited in Melbourne, as her one run in Melbourne she produced a career PB, running 7.1 lengths above benchmark and finishing just 0.5 lengths off Bleu Roche and Causeway Girl at Flemington last preparation. She comes to Caulfield second-up off the back of a good run at Warwick Farm and that impressive Flemington jumpout. The favourite Tofane does look talented. Ollie has gone to Ballarat & Bendigo to ride her at her first two starts, she was backed as if unbeatable last start, $1.85 into $1.35 and she bolted in, winning by 3.8 lengths. She went 11.1 lengths above the class benchmark. Barrier 2 with the speed on was my issue with her.
Result (4th)

April 13

Race 1 - 12:20pm Ern Jensen Funerals Handicap (1200m)
I was keen to follow the team Corstens-trained STAND TO ATTENTION at his next start but the favourite Super Seth does look a special talent, so I’ll only be tipping Stand To Attention the place. I really like this horse, he just missed on debut at Kyneton before going to a listed race at The Valley and had excuses, he was slowly away, raced wide and pulled up with a slow recovery in the race won by Cheer Leader who is favourite for a good race at Randwick on Saturday. His last start effort at Bendigo was full of merit, he was back on the inside which was the worst ground and didn’t have any room between the 400m-200m before finally getting clear and charging home. That’s backed up by the sectionals, as he ran just the 10th-fastest 400m-200m split but the second-fastest last 200m of the race. From barrier two with James Winks on board, he should get a soft run just off the speed and can run into the placings.
Result (2nd - $3.70 Place only was suggested)

Race 5 - 2:45pm Thoroughbred Club Galilee Series Final (2425m)
I’m very surprised to see the Tony McEvoy-trained Secret Blaze so short in the market, as I thought he was more around a $6.00 chance. He got his birthday last start, sitting in the perfect spot, wide with cover and peeling onto the best ground in the straight. I’m happy to put the pen through that race at Bendigo that the top three horses come out of, as it looks junk. The horse I want to back is the Archie Alexander-trained CONVICT SAM. He was hard in the market second-up at Sandown and looked to have the race shot to pieces but Smiling City just out bobbed him in the last 50m. With that being said, he did run the quickest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m of the race. He bolted in his maiden at Donald last start as a $1.40 favourite, justifying that short quote to win by 2.8 lengths. He brings the different form and maps perfectly from barrier four with J.Childs on board. 
Result (4th)

Race 8 - 4:50pm Bel Esprit Stakes (1100m)
This Sarah Zschoke-trained EDUARDO looks the best of good things in the listed Bel Esprit Stakes at Caulfield and I can’t believe we’re still getting even money on Friday morning. He bolted in a Cranbourne trial by eight-lengths before his first-up run in the Oakleigh Plate and despite the trainer and jockey combination, the ‘smart’ money poured in late, as he went from $11 into $5.00 in that Group One. He sat three-wide on a lightening fast tempo, as the leaders went 12.2 lengths above benchmark to the 600m. While the likes of Nature Strip couldn’t absorb that pressure, he did and still looked the winner at the 200m before Booker and Encryption ran him down late. Looking at the position in running at the 800m mark of top five placings in the race, Booker (10th), Encryption (13th), Eduardo (3rd), Bons Away (9th) and Spright (16th), we see that  Eduardo was the only horse on or near the speed to keep kicking which gives even more merit to his performance. He was well-backed last start in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m), he ran an uncharastically poor race and it was obvious that his Oakleigh Plate run flattened him. Zschoke has given him a quick freshen up and judging by his Cranbourne jumpout, he looks back at the top of the game. There does look good speed in this race but Eduardo has proven he can handle that pressure and the likes of Bons Away and Desert Lashes shouldn’t be giving him too much trouble.
Result (3rd)

April 6

Race 2 - 1:00pm Selangor Turf Club Handicap (1600m)
The class horse in the field is clearly the Anthony Freedman-trained DANON ROMAN. He ran 11.9 lengths above benchmark in his Australian debut at Flemington, when finishing a close-up third behind Furrion. Only Mihany has a better career PB and that horse will never win another race against. He went to Caulfield second-up last preparation and wasn’t beaten far behind Furrion and Group One winner Best Of Days. He was soft from the mounting yard first-up at Sandown and his sectional times reflect that. He ran the quickest 800m-600m, second-fastest 600m-400m, third-fastest 400m-200m and only the seventh-fastest last 200m of the race. Horses only go one way off that type of first-up run and that’s up. I’m keen to back him at around $4.40. The danger looks to be the Joseph Waldron-trained I Got You. I blackbooked his horse after he ran some of the best sectionals of the day first-up in Australia behind Mystyko and Redcore at Caulfield. He went to Sydney two starts ago and ran a nice fourth at a big price behind the likes of Star Of The Seas who has won since. Nothing went right for him last start at Geelong and he gets J.Kah from C.Douglas.
Result (unplaced)

Race 8 - 4:55pm Ladbrokes Anniversary Vase (1400m)
I’m pretty keen on the Scott Brunton-trained HELLOVA STREET. He went down narrowly last start at Flemington behind Widgee Turf who is a $26 chance in the G1 Doncaster Mile at Randwick. Looking at the form behind him, the third-placed Streets Of Avalon has won a listed race since and the eighth-placed Haripour has won a listed race since. Three starts ago Hellova Street only went down to Mystic Journey by a half-length. I cannot understand how this horse is $6.00. His last start figure of 11.4 lengths above benchmark is clearly the best last start figure in the race and is an each-way moral. The Mick Price-trained Heptagon is $4.60 into $2.50 and I’m shocked at that early move. I had him priced $5.00 and I can’t make heads or tails of this massive early go. I thought he got the perfect run to win last start at Echuca and although he gets 6kg from Hellova Street, the latter is a much better athlete.
Result (unplaced)

Race 9 - 5:30pm Le Pine Funerals Handicap (2000m)
The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained THUNDER CLOUD does look over the odds in the last race on the program. He ran the best figures on a good day at Flemington second-up, running 14.1 lengths above benchmark to defeat Antah, who has won again since and has Group One targets in the Spring. He was disappointing on face value at Flemington two starts ago but faced a completely different race shape than his win the start prior and didn’t really handle the sit and sprint nature of the race. He got too far out of his ground last start at Mornington, which doesn’t look his ideal track but still ran home solidly into third. He gets the blinkers back on, gets the best appearance in Victoria on board, Teo Nugent and gets in with only 51kg. The speed will be on and he should get every chance to run over the top of them late.
Result (unplaced)

February 23

Race 4 - 2:20pm Ladbrokes Angus Armanasco Stakes (1400m)
I think the Mick Price-trained ZOUBO is way over the odds here. I’m completely forgiving and forgetting his last start effort at Caulfield where on face value, he ran a poor last. He started $4.80 against Crack The Code and never got into the race. He missed the start, hung around the home turn and pulled up lame. Despite this, he still ran the fastest last 200m which is the sign of a very good horse. He’ll be better for the run around Caulfield and only needs to run up to his win at Sandown last preparation to be very competitive here. He beat Kaplumpich, running 6.3 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m. He ran the second-fastest last 200m of the day (fastest My Pendent), the fastest last 400m and fastest last 600m of the meeting. This was a day where the winners from the first two races were Declares War and My Pendent. At $18 he looks the best value bet of the day.
Result (3rd - $3.80 Place)

Race 6 - 3:30pm Yulong Futurity Stakes (1400m)
ALIZEE is the second-best horse in the country in my opinion. Her two wins this preparation have been superb, I thought she was a small risk staying at 1200m last start in the Expressway but the race was never in doubt and Blake Shinn hardly moved on her in the final 200m. Looking at the figures, we get a sense of just how good she has been this preparation. In the Expressway she ran her last 600m 11.8 lengths above the benchmark, the only horse in this race who has gotten close to that over there last 10 starts was Redkirk Warrior, when he produced exactly the same figure (11.8 lengths above benchmark) when he beat Redzel in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes over 1000m. Alizee produced the same performance under hands and heels riding whilst being eased to the line over the final 100m. I don’t like backing Hugh Bowman when he has what I call the ‘Winx Goggles’ on.. But this looks like a sit and steer job, she’ll get back, peel to the outside at the top of the straight and should be too good for her rivals. 
Result (1st - $2.70)

Race 8 - 4:50PM Ladbrokes Oakleigh Plate (1100m)
Although I do admit Nature Strip is more than likely the best sprinter in Australia and will be very hard to beat, the value may like with the Sarah Zschocke-trained EDUARDO. He put the writing on the wall in the Spring, running a close-up second in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes, splitting I Am Excited and Bons Away before winning the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint in impressive fashion. I’m backing him off his recent trial at Cranbourne. In this trial he jumped straight to the front and stormed away from the field under a strong hold by regular rider Brian Park. He won untouched by eight-lengths, running the quickest time of the morning defeating Goodwood placegetter I’ll Have A Bit and Divine Quality who wasn’t far off them in the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes. He should slide across and sit outside of Nature Strip from the wide barrier and he looks a very good chance.
Result (3rd)


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Caulfield Tips April 27 - Saturday best bets for Caulfield

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