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Caulfield Tips July 27- Saturday best bets for Caulfield

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 22 Jul 2019
  • 3 to 4 best bets for each Caulfield meeting.
  • Previous results included
Caulfileld racing action

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Caulfield? 

Our form analyst gives you their expert racing tips for Victorian racing each weekend including Caulfield - the home of the Caulfield Cup.

See our free Caulfield tips below:

Caulfield Tips - July 27

Check back on Friday to see our updated best bets.

Previous Caulfield Tips:

July 13

Race 6 - 2:10pm Ladbrokes $101 Odds Handicap (2000m)
The price is gone but I have to tip the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained JUNIPAL. Bookies went up $5.00 and that was simply the wrong price, when doing the form on Wednesday afternoon he was still hovering around $3.80-$4.00 but has been smashed all the way into $2.40. He was outstanding first-up at Flemington behind a smart horse in Big Night Out, he then went and contested a G2 race in Queensland, he didn’t have much luck and still finished fifth behind the likes of Kolding, Baccarat Baby, Pohutukawa and Seabrook. He was terrific again last start, running second in the G3 Sunshine Coast Guineas (1600m) despite having no luck yet again. He weaved through the pack and was savaging the line late but Baccarat Baby had a margin. That 1600m run on a Heavy 10 will condition him nicely to step-up to 2000m fourth-up and there doesn’t look much opposition in this race. Tavirun got his win last start, controlling and beating up on a weak bunch of horses and I’m putting the pen through that 2000m leadup. Aristocratic Miss probably doesn’t run 2000m, despite winning over 2100m last start at Sandown. Dwayne Dunn led on her and went 32 lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m. This looks Junipal’s race to lose.
Result (3rd)

Race 7 - 2:50pm Ladbrokes Back Yourself Handicap (1200m)
The Daniel Bowman-trained GOLDEN HALO looks a nice bet at around $6.50 in early markets. The ex-Weir galloper didn’t really perform with Maher & Eustace but looks to have returned a better horse now in the Daniel Bowman stable at Warrnambool. First-up for Bowman, she ran a cracking fifth in the G2 Euclase Stakes (1100m) behind Valour Road, Tofane and Gytrash. She then pulled up lame in the G3 Proud Miss Stakes but bounced back with an easy kill at Swan Hill. She contested the Listed A.R. Creswick Stakes (1200m) down the straight at Flemington last start and her second behind Gytrash put the writing on the wall that she is ready to win here. She ran 5.1 lengths above benchmark to the 600m, then ran the fastest last 600m of the race, running 5.7 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m for an overall figure of 10.8 lengths above benchmark, which is clearly the best last-start performance of any runner in the race and It’s also the best personal best figure of any horse in the race. From barrier 12, Yendall will likely take her back near the tail of the field but that shouldn’t pose too many issues with speed from News Girl, Tell Me, Gododdin and Street Icon likely to give horses back in the field their chance. 
Result (4th)

June 29

Race 2 - 12:20pm Ladbrokes Multiverse Hcp (1600m)
I’m keen to forgive the Lindsay Park-trained FIVE KINGDOM after he was a beaten favourite at Flemington last Saturday. He looked disappointing on face value but looking at the replay and the data, his run was nearly the run of the day in my opinion. It was a terrible ride from Lewis German and the jockey change from German to Lachie King, who has won on the horse in the past is a very positive one. The horse began well and was snicked back to near last before overracing badly and expending too much energy for the position he was in. The leader went 3.9 lengths slower than the class benchmark to the 600m and Five Kingdom was never a winning chance from back near last. He ran the second-fastest 600m-400m split of the race before hitting a flat spot and running the fifth-fastest 400m-200m, he then really picked up late  running the fastest last 200m of the race and the 19th-fastest last 200m of the meeting. I wrote in my review of the meeting that Five Kingdom could improve ten-lengths if ridden properly next start and I think King has every opportunity to do so from barrier 10 with not much speed on paper. Pria Eclipse will likely kick up and lead from barrier four but the position outside the leader looks up for grabs and if King slides forward from that barrier, he is clearly the horse to beat and $4.00 is a terrific price.
Result (4th)

Race 3 - 12:55pm Long Fine Plate (1400m)
The more I look into this race, the more I struggle to see how they beat the Leon & Troy Corstons-trained MORRISY. The difference in his parade from his victory at Caulfield three starts ago to his last start victory at Sandown was astounding. He sweated up awfully at Caulfield, raced four-wide on the speed and still bolted in, beating Poised To Strike Mumbles. He was a different horse at Sandown, parading perfectly. He was given a great ride from Craig Williams and the result was never in doubt, winning by 1.3 lengths and recording a new career personal best figure of 12.1 lengths above benchmark, it was the third-best figure of the meeting, less than a half-length behind the older sprinters Jungle Edge and Malibu Style. Craig Williams sticks here and he maps to get a very similar run to last start from barrier one, sitting just behind the speed that should be set up by Robe De Fete. His rivals don’t look as well suited as him here. Fabric got the perfect run last start at Flemington last start, she is a month between runs and goes C.Williams to M.Poy and cops barrier 10. Persuader is Persuader and Really Swish, who hasn’t been suited at her last two starts will be giving Morrisy a big start at the top of the straight. 
Result (scratched)

May 11

Race 2 - 12:30pm Ladbrokes Back Yourself Handicap (1100m)
I’m very keen on the John Price-trained WILLIAM THOMAS. Looking at him first-up in the mounting yard at Caulfield, he was always going to take improvement from that run and I’m actually surprised he got as close as he did to Propelle. He came into the race with no trials or jumpouts and showed outstanding closing speed in a race that rated extremely highly vs the day. He ran the second-fastest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m of the meeting, running 12.3 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m. He can sit three-wide with cover for M.Dee from barrier 12 and swoop home over the top of his rivals. The danger does look to be Delvecchio. I thought it was a weird first-up run at Sandown until I looked at the Stewards vision. The fourth, fifth and sixth-placed horses all go past him at the 200m and he kicks back for third. Looking at the head on vision, D.Dunn was only riding hands and heels until the last 100m when the race is all but over. He ran the 10th-fastest 600m-400m of the race, seventh-fastest 400m-200m and fastest last 200m. He will improve off that the winner has won at Sandown again since. 
Result (1st - $3.60)

Race 7 - 3:40pm Le Pine Funerals Handicap (1100m)
As mentioned in my race two preview, that Propelle and William Thomas race rated extremely highly and I’m keen to follow both horses. The Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained PROPELLE went to a new level last start, she ran a Group standard figure, running two-lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m and coming home 15.6 lengths above benchmark for the last 600m to record an overall figure of 13.6 lengths above benchmark, running the fastest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m of the meeting at Caulfield. I thought the danger at a price was Lady Vega on the seven-day back-up. She opened $16 against the likes of Poised To Strike and started upwards of 40/1 on betfair late. She went back to the inside down the straight, as all the horses in the finish were making their runs on the outside. She ran the fastest 600m-400m of the race, the third-fastest 400m-200m and loomed like she was going to run a big race but just peaked late, running the sixth fastest last 200m.
Result (2nd)

Race 9 - 4:52pm JRA Handicap (1800m)
I thought the Chris Waller-trained BIRTH OF VENUS was a moral beaten last start and we found the horse at $16 off a hidden gem run two starts prior. He sat back last off a tempo that was 14.9 lengths above benchmark to the 600m but it’s the sectional data that tells the full story. The leaders went very quick early, 1800m-1600m (11.20s), 1600m-1400m (11.34s) then they started to slow up, 1400m-1200m (11.89s), 1200m-1000m (12.53s) and 1000m-800m (12.43s). This is when Oliver gets moving on the winner Grinzinger Star, he blends into the race and expends no energy in the process, going from four-lengths off the leader at the 800m to 2.7 lengths off the leader at the 400m. Michael Walker shows on intent to get on the back of the favourite and only goes from 6.4 lengths off the leader at the 800m to 6.1 lengths off the leader at the 400m. Grinzinger Star runs the fourth-fastest 800m-600m and fastest 600m-400m of the race. Birth Of Venus runs only the fifth-fastest 800m-600m and the seventh-fastest 600m-400m of the race. Birth Of Venus then savages the line, running the fastest last 200m and 400m of the race and 100m past the post, is alongside Grinzinger Star. Grinzinger Star started a solid $2.30 favourite in a good race at Flemington last Saturday and those formlines are strong. M.Dee on from barrier four, I’m happy to take the current $5.00 on offer. 
Result (unplaced)

April 27

Race 1 - 12:05pm Keno Classic Handicap (1000m)
The opening race on the program at Caulfield looks a two horse affair between William Thomas and the Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained PROPELLE. With race fitness on her side, I’m keen on the latter. I thought she was good first-up at Ballarat, just being nosed out by Ben Hercules on the line. The leader went 10.7 lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m and she just didn’t have the explosive turn of foot first-up. She went to Caulfield at her last start and was given a very tough run, being three-wide no cover throughout and I thought her effort to sick on for third behind Columbus Circle and Leiter was outstanding. Despite the tough run, she ran 9.3 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m for an overall figure of 7.9 lengths above benchmark. That is the best last start figure in the race and should take her a long way here. The John Price-trained William Thomas is the clear danger. The Nicconi gelding has plenty of talent but has been off the scene for 328 days and I couldn’t find any public trials or jumpouts for him. 
Result: (Won - $3.30)

Race 2 - 12:40pm Keno Fun Money Handicap (1400m)
On a tricky meeting with plenty of short priced favourites, my best bet of the program is the Scott Brunton-trained MANDELA EFFECT. I loved the style of his last start victory at Bendigo, the pattern was in his favour that day but he really savaged the line. He ran the fastest last 1000m of the meeting, then just the 25th fastest last 800m and 24th-fastest last 200m before running the seventh-fastest last 400m and ninth-fastest last 200m of the meeting. His last start here at Caulfield was over the 1400m where he defeated Streets Of Avalon, who we saw win a Group 3 over the same track and distance just seven days ago. Scott Brunton is a master trainer and he doesn’t travel horses just a for a trip away. Brunton has had 12 runners in Victoria over the last 6 months for five winners and a profit on turnover of 198.33 percent. Brunton spoke after Mandela Effect won his last race at Bendigo, saying that this is the best horse he has ever trained and that’s good enough for me to launch into him here.
Result: Unplaced

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Caulfield Tips July 27- Saturday best bets for Caulfield

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