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Caulfield Tips September 21- Saturday best bets for Caulfield

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 19 Sep 2019
  • 3 to 4 best bets for each Caulfield meeting.
  • Previous results included
Caulfileld racing action

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Caulfield? 

Our form analyst gives you their expert racing tips for Victorian racing each weekend including Caulfield - the home of the Caulfield Cup.

See our free Caulfield tips below:

Caulfield Tips - September 21

Race 2 - 1:10pm 4CYTE for Living Legends Hcp (1600m)
This looks a two-horse race and I’m happy to be with the outsider of the two, SKIDDAW. He had excuses behind Condo’s Express in listed grade two starts ago at The Valley and was $9.00 into $5.50 last start. He was back on the fence, which clearly was the worst part of the track and I was impressed with his last 200m, running into third. He was one of only three horses to who finished in the top three who were on the fence in run over the entire meeting.The danger is the favourite Long Jack, who ripped home 5.8 lengths above the class benchmark for his final 600m first-up in Australia at Ballarat and he looks a type who will get over much further than 1400m. He looks a Derby prospect but I can’t back a horse off a slow run race on the synthetic into Saturday grade at this price. Looking at the other two horses hard in the market, The Lifeline won and controlled an average midweek race at Sandown and did start $21. The other horse is Huntly Castle who just got over the top of Purrfect Scent at Bendigo before winning an average race at Flemington for two-year-olds, beating Marndarra who finished third in a five horse field at Benchmark 70 level at her next start and Presently, who is whacking around in a Sale maiden on Thursday.

Race 6 - 3:35pm East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
I was with the Lindsay Park-trained SIKANDARABAD last start in the Feehan Stakes at The Valley and I’m happy to stick with him after a luckless run. There was support for him first-up in the Lawrence ($34 into $21). He got all the favours along the fence but was really strong through the line, running the second-fastest last 200m of the race and was taking ground off the likes of Hartnell and Cliff’s Edge late. He was just totally unsuited last start behind Homesman who controlled the race in front, running 1.9 lengths slower than class benchmark to the 600m. Sikandarabad was wide and swooping, when finally clear at the top of the straight he ripped home for sixth, running the eighth-fastest 600m-400m split of the race, the seventh-fastest 400m-200m split and the fastest last 200m of the race, while also running the fourth-fastest last 200m of the entire meeting. He gets M.Dee on which certinaly isn’t a huge positive but I’m confident enough that he can give the horse a good steer from barrier six. Some corporates went up as much as $12 in the early markets, that was clearly the wrong price. I’m still happy to take the price on offer but I will wait as we will more than likely get $6.50-$7.00 on the day.

Previous Tips:

August 31

Race 6 - 3:30pm MRC Everest Series Heath 1100 Stakes (1100m)
How quickly things can change in racing, it was only a month ago I said VEGA MAGIC would never win another race after I saw his first jumpout and Flemington, now I’m making him my best bet of the day. As mentioned, I thought his first jumpout was very poor back in late July, his second showed some improvement and his last jumpout on August 12 was the best I’ve ever seen him jumpout with the blinkers on. He jumped cleanly, sat on the speed and slowly increased his margin inside the last 200m, building into his work and won untouched by seven-lengths, defeating Hawker Hurricane, with another three-length gap to Moldova in third. I don’t take much notice of times in jumpouts but he did run 47.77s for the 800m jumpout, which was the quickest of the morning. He started a $2.50 favourite in the Memsie Stakes on this day last year and looked the winner before finding the 1400m a bridge too far. He has an outstanding fresh record, with three wins and two seconds from eight first-up runs and looks to be flying as a seven-year-old. Looking at the race, Gytrash has the best last start benchmark figure in the race, of 13.1 lengths above benchmark but is 70-days between runs and drops back from 1200m to 1100m. The main danger appears to be Ball Of Muscle, who won this race first-up last year. He has been trialling well in Sydney and gets synthetic hoof filler off for the first time, which suggests the horse is sound. 
Result (unplaced)

Race 8 - 4:50pm New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes (1400m)
The first Group One of the season in Melbourne is the Group One Memsie Stakes and I’m keen to take on the favourite Alizee. She is a classy mare but she is far more effective off slow/moderate speeds and I’m expecting a fast early tempo with the likes of Begood Toya Mother, Cliff’s Edge, Fundamentlist, Scales Of Justice and Despatch all likely to push forward. She did win the Group One Futurity Stakes over this track and distance but the leaders did run 2.6 lengths slower than class benchmark to the 600m. The horse I was keen to back was the Lindsay Smith-trained SCALES OF JUSTICE. His first-up victory in the Bletchingly Stakes (1200m) was outstanding and is overall figure of 14.1 lengths above benchmark is Group One quality any day of the week. Although his last start performance was disappointing on face value, he was second-up off a long break, sat three-wide on the speed and it took a very impressive Dalasun to run him down. The race still rated very highly, with Scales Of Justice recording an overall figure of 10.1 lengths above benchmark, which rates as the third-best last start performance in the race. He gets back to Caulfield, which is a positive, as is the speed map. He looks to slot in perfectly from barrier five and should be two pairs back, one-off the fence in a beautiful position.
Result (1st - $5)

August 17

Race 1 - 12:15pm MRC Foundation Supports Legacy Handicap (1100m)
I priced GODODDIN and Pippie as almost equal favourites, so I’m clearly with the James Cummings-trained Gododdin at the price. She won over 1200m here at Caulfield two starts before running a terrific fourth at Flemington behind Sylvia’s Mother in what was, a very high rating race. The race rated 15.1 lengths above the overall benchmark and 5.1 lengths above the class benchmark and the form has already been stacking up, with the second-placed My Pendent and the third-placed Ruban Bleu both winning at Flemington last Saturday. The only small query is the month between runs and 1200m back to 1100m but the positives far outweigh the negatives for mine. He goes from D.Dunn to D.Lane, who is the best jockey in Melbourne since returning from Japan and has the perfect map, able to sit just off a predicted fast tempo, set-up by Tony Nicconi, Pippie, Definia and I Am Queen. I can understand why Pippie is favourite but I couldn’t get her anywhere near $2.30. She started favourite against Sunlight at this meeting last year, was spelled for 326-days and bobbed up in Doomben, being backed from $2.60 into $1.50 and bolting in. The race didn’t rate that well vs the day and she will need to improve significantly second-up to be winning.  
Result (unplaced)

Race 3 - 1:25pm Nitto Denko Handicap (1600m)
This is an odd race, with plenty of internationals who are first-up. Liam Howley has three runners, who haven’t raced for 700 days, 343 days and 298 days respectively. Waller has two imports who are first-up and Duretto hasn’t raced since running in the Caulfield Cup last year. Looking at the five remaining runners, New Universe is now eighth-up, had his birthday winning last start at The Valley and gets barrier one. Guizot has had 15 runs this preparation, Sylpheed hasn’t won since winning at Doomben in 2017 and Beau Balmain has had a 40-day freshen-up and drops back from 2600m to 1600m. This leaves us with literally one horse, SNITZEPEG. She was huge last start at Caulfield behind Tshahitsi and did all she could do from being back and off the bit at the 600m. Tshahitsi ran them along in front and that didn’t suit Snitzepeg, who was at least one or two runs off peak fitness. Once he got balanced in the straight, I loved the way he hit the line, running 11.2 lengths above benchmark for his last 600m, with an overall figure of 8.5 lengths above benchmark which rated well vs the day. He ran the fastest last 200m of the meeting, the third-fastest last 400m and second-fastest last 600m of the meeting. The step-up to 1600m fourth-up should suit and this looks his right race.
Result (unplaced)

Race 4 - 2:00pm Blue Star Print Handicap (1400m)
The Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained AGE OF CHIVALRY has been $2.80 into $2.30 since markets opened on Wednesday and that is no surprise, as this race looks perfect for him. His first-up run at The Valley a fortnight ago was outstanding, he wasn’t anywhere near screwed down from a mounting yard perspective and he will take significant improvement from the run. I was very impressed with his run, as he was held-up between the 400m-150m and even when it looked like he was clear late, he was still racing in restricted room over the final 100m and jockey Damian Lane never fully went for him. Despite this, he only finished a length from the winner Usain Bowler, while running the fastest last 200m of the race and the 14th-fastest last 200m of a meeting that included three 1000m races. Damian Lane should be able to do as he pleases here from barrier seven. There looks to be plenty of speed on paper, with the likes of Silent Roar, Angelic Spirit and Smart Elissim likely to come across from wide barriers, whilst Sam’s Image, Shot Of Irish and Rox The Castle all may want to hold positions from inside barriers, Age Of Chivalry can settle right behind that speed battle and get every possible chance.
Result (1st - $2.30)

July 27

Race 1 - 11:55am Steph Hunter VOBIS Gold Ingot (1400m)
The Danny O’Brien-trained Can’t Be Done is clearly the horse to beat but I thought the John Sadler-trained SCORE represented the value in the race. I thought she battled on well two starts ago at Sandown behind Maozi and Hafaawa. She then dropped back from 1200m to 1000m at Cranbourne last start and I change of tactics saw her settle second-last on a day where it was advantageous to be up near the lead. She really savaged the line to run fourth behind a smart horse in Paris. The race rated clearly the best of the day as a maiden, which is rare and Score ran 5.6 lengths above the maiden benchmark, whilst also running the second-fastest last 200m, 400m and 600m of the meeting. I don’t usually like horses jumping from 1000m to 1400m but she has had that 1200m run and is fourth-up and should be nearing peak fitness. As mentioned, Can’t Be Done is the horse to beat but is now fifth-up in his first preparation and has had some tough runs in that time and might just be coming to the end of his prep. The other horse to watch is Forever Loud, who started $151 when Can’t Be Done started $3.50 last start. He was luckless and when he got out, flew home to run the sixth-fastest last 200m, 13th-fastest last 400m and 31th-fastest last 600m of a meeting that included in the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes.
Result (unplaced)

Race 6 - 3:00pm Jenna Ross VOBIS Gold Reef (1600m)
The Clinton McDonald-trained BENITOITE has serious ability and with even luck from barrier one, should be going very close. She showed an outstanding turn of foot to beat Pinyin two starts ago at Sandown, that horse started a $5.00 second favourite behind Sylvia’s Mother last Saturday. She went from Damien Oliver to Michael Walker last start, was $10 out to $14 and finished seventh, suggesting to me It was just a run to keep her ticking along for this race. She made good ground on the inside of runners in straight,  running the ninth-fastest 600m-400m split of the race, sixth-fastest 400m-200m split and the fastest last 200m of the race. She was untested over the last 100m, as Michael Walker thought she was amiss, as reported in the Stewards Report. Despite not riding her out, she ran the 16th-fastest last 200m of the meeting and the 27th-fastest last 400m of the meeting. She gets Damien Oliver back on here and although I don’t love the map from barrier one, she has the right jockey on board and the fence has been no disadvantage at Caulfield in recent meetings.
Result (1st - $4.40)

Race 9 - 4:55pm Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap (1400m)
I love this map and race shape for the Tasmanian visitor TSHAHITSI. He was first-up for 490 days in the All Victorian Sprint (1200m) at Flemington and the market said he couldn’t win, drifting from $21 to $51 at the jump. He led and battled on well behind the handy sprinters, crossing the line with Sirius Suspect who bolted in a handy sprint race at Flemington last Saturday. I love the jockey change here, with regular rider B Mc Coull going off and 3kg claimer Teodore Nugent going on. Teo suits this horse down to the ground and will be positive on him early and with no other real speed in the race, he should get an uncontested lead. My only concern is the first-up run flattened him off a long spell and I may be going a run too early but at $4.60 I’m happy enough to find out. Two horses I blackbooked from the Sir John Monash meeting here a fortnight ago can both run well. I Thought So started $7.50 against Sesar earlier this preparation and he didn’t have much luck in the SIr John Monash Stakes (1100m), running the fastest last 400m, 600m and 800m of the meeting in a race that didn’t suit him. Micheal Walker on from barrier one is scary behaviour and the reason I didn’t make him a bet. The Matthew Cumani-trained Sylpheed was first-up since running in the Adelaide Cup, she was left flat footed when they sprinted, which was to be expected. She then really savaged the line, running clearly the fastest last 200m of the race to only be beaten 0.6 lengths by a handy bunch of sprinters and 1400m will suit here.
Result (1st - $5)


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Caulfield Tips September 21- Saturday best bets for Caulfield

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