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Flemington Tips January 19 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 17 Jan 2019
  • 3 to 4 best bets for Flemington each meeting.

Flemington racing

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Flemington Tips - January 19


Race 2 - 1:35pm Voting Opens Monday for All-Star Mile (2500m)
This looks the perfect race for the Danny O’Brien-trained LYCURGUS. He has been good without winning this preparation and I’d suggest it’s this race or never for him. Looking at his preparation, he was tremendous second-up at Flemington, as he traded $1.08 in play at the 200m mark but just ran out of fitness late to finish third. He pulled up sore third-up at The Valley in what was, a complete forgive run. I was with him last start over this track and distance and although he had worked a little early, Ollie had him Outside the leader and I thought he was a great winning chance. What I didn’t account for was Etymology turning into Phar Lap over a staying trip. He won easily and not surprisingly, has won a listed race since. There is absolutely no speed in this race and D.Oliver can control the race from the front. He looks very hard to beat.

Race 8 - 5:20PM Bitalli Handicap (1800m)
I don’t like to Jockey blame but gee whiz, LAURE ME IN should’ve won his last two starts. From barrier 12 over 1600m at Flemington, Laure Me In somehow ended up last on the fence at the 800m and then forced 10-wide at the 400m to start his run. He still looked like he was the winner at the furlong but just found Diplomatic Jack who had the better run. I’m confident he wins that race 95/100 times but enough talking through my pocket. His sectionals were outstanding, running the fourth fastest last 200m of the meeting and the ninth fastest last 400m of the meeting. Two starts ago he should’ve beaten Silentz at Caulfield. He drops 2kg on his last start run, goes barrier 12 to barrier 3 and Chris Caserta to Luke Currie. He is a bet at any price above $2.10. 

Race 9 - 5:55pm Victorian Owner Gold Card Handicap (1200m)
The Mick Price-trained LANGHRO is a horse different horse since being gelded at the end of 2017. The lightly-raced six-year-old showed plenty of potential at the trials and jumpouts early in career but was too much of a colt to put it together on raceday. He returned with a nice jumpout at Caulfield before his first-up run. He was big drifter when he returned on Boxing Day ($4.40-$7.50) as the big punters stepped into Star Fall. He raced keenly in the early stages and still wanted to do a bit wrong, flashing home for second behind Star Fall who has since travelled to Sydney and won impressively. He will be fitter second-up and Mick Price has suggested that 1200m will be more suitable. He drops 7.5kg and maps well from barrier six for Dwayne Dunn. I have a big opinion of this horse and I’m confident he will be going close.


Previous Flemington Tips:


January 12


Race 4 - 2:18PM Furlong Bar Handicap (1400 METRES)
Race 4 pits some promising three-year-olds up against one another and it is the Greg Eurell-trained O'TAUTO that can go one better after resuming with a runner-up performance behind Poised To Strike just before Christmas. On that occasion, the son of O'Lonhro settled at the tail in the 1200m straight race and made some solid ground in the dying stages before just peaking on his run and missing out. At his previous campaign he tackled the Flemington 1400m and ran home well to grab 2nd behind Crockett. That form lines up well for this and he will enjoy a peach of a run from barrier 2 with Damien Oliver on board. 
Result (Won - $2.70)

Race 7 - 4:08PM Paddock Bar Plate (1100 METRES)
I'm pretty keen on ORDER OF COMMAND to continue his winning ways in this one. The Danny O'Brien-trained galloper was close up in a number of key sprints down the Flemington straight last winter, providing the exacta behind the likes of Nature Strip and Brave Song in successive races and has had two runs this campaign for wins over the 1100m and 1000m. This doesn't seem to be a huge step up for the four-year-old and he should have the race run to suit as he can settle behind the speed that will be set by a number of those on his inside.
Result (Unplaced)

December 22

Race 1 - 1:00pm Santa's Workshop Plate (1400m)
I’m with the Danny O’Brien-trained MY PENDANT in the opening race at headquarters. Two starts ago she bolted in at Sandown, unleashing a terrific turn of foot beating Angel Lass and Sora, who won easily at The Valley at her next start. She ran her last 200m in 11.24s and her last 400m in 22.06s, which were both the fastest of the meeting. The horse that ran the 2nd fastest last 200m of the meeting? Declares War. Her last start win at Moonee Valley was terrific and the clock backed up her effort. Three 1200m races were run on that day at The Valley and all three winners ran the quickest closing sectionals of the race. My Pendant, who won the Benchmark 70 race, ran her last 400m in 22.74s and her last 200m in 11.21s. The winner of the Benchmark 78 race, Exceltara, ran her last 400m in 22.96s and her last 200m in 11.30s. Only potential star Behemoth ran a quicker last 400m (22.27s) in the opening race on the program. My Pendant’ goes up 3kg but stays in BM70 grade, her figures suggest she is better than these. She maps to get a nice run midfield from barrier five with Craig Williams on board, she looks very hard to beat. 
Result (1st - $3.40)

Race 3 - 2:10pm Nominate Now for the All-Star Mile (1600m)
I might be going a run or two early, but I’m keen on the Darren Weir-trained TEODORA at a price. She won her first two career starts over 1300m and 1600m but since then, hasn’t performed well over less than 1600m. First-up at Bendigo over 1400m, she missed the start badly and the race was all but over from there. She finished ninth but I really like the way she attacked the line late. She ran the quickest last 1200m of the race (1:10.04) which was the second-fastest of the entire meeting. This is a weak benchmark 84 race. Only Shokora and Penny To Sell come out of a Benchmark 84 (The rest Benchmark 78 grade or below) and both don’t win out of turn. Although she won’t be anywhere near peak fitness, getting to Flemington, barrier six, on the minimum, I’m happy to have an each-way play at Teodora.
Result (3rd - $2.60 - each-way suggested)

Race 5 - 3:20pm VRC Christmas Donation Appeal Trophy (1400m)
I usually avoid these Metro benchmark 64 races like the plague but I’m making an exception for the Tony McEvoy-trained RENEGADE. His Jumpout on December 10 at Werribee was clearly the most impressive work of the morning. He sat outside the leader before putting his rivals away under a stronghold. His rivals included Hang Man who won a Benchmark 78 at Metro level last start. Renegade bolted in his only start over 1400m last preparation at Benalla, winning by 2.2 lengths, defeating Skelm (who beat home Box On Collins at his next start). 
He was then pipped in a head-bobber by Nothin’ Leica High at Pakenham before running third behind Think Bleue and the Group One placed Sheezdashing at Flemington. He maps slightly worse than midfield from barrier seven and with Mark Zahra on, I’m happy to bet. 
Result (4th)

December 15


Race 3 - 2:05PM VRC EMPLOYEE VOLUNTEER PROGRAM TROPHY (1720 METRES)
Looking for a much-improved run from MASCULINO who never really found clear running last start in the Kilmore Cup (1600m) and finished 3.3 lengths from Manuel. His first-up run was average and his next was much better, and that’s the same trend as last campaign where he charged home to grab 2nd behind Gaulois at Moonee Valley over 1600m. This looks much easier than last start and he only has to carry 3kg more with Lachlan King claiming 3kg and getting him down to 57kg from 60kg. He’s a winner at Flemington over 2000m and the step up to 1720m third-up looks perfect. 
Result (1st - $3.60)

Race 5 - 3:20PM UNION RD TRADERS ASSOCIATION HANDICAP (1410 METRES)
I was keen on Gaulois in this race until he was scratched and is now my top selection in the Villiers Stakes (1600m) at Randwick, but his scratching opens the door for the ever-consistent CHAMOIS ROAD. He resumed this campaign with a 2nd placing behind the speedy Runson who broke the track record when running 1:08.77 over 1200m at Moonee Valley. He then went back to the trials and followed that with a 4th placing over 1300m before heading the Rosehill where he finished 3rd in the Festival Stakes (1500m) behind My Nordic Hero and Goodfella who line up in the Villiers. Chamois Road went to Sydney for his third run last campaign and then returned to Melbourne to claim a 1400m win at Caulfield. I love the way he follows the same path as last campaign, and with fitness on his side and the drop back to 1400m, she should be strong through the line and making his own luck up on the speed. 
Result (1st - $5)

November 10


Race 1 - 12:15PM MELBOURNE’S OWN 3AW TROPHY (1600 METRES)
Manuel has the class to be winning this, but he steps up to the mile for the first time following a taxing 1400m run on Heavy ground four days ago – no thanks. If you take Fifty Stars out of that race, Manuel wins convincingly, but it’s the unknown that has me wary of him. AL PASSEM on the other hand is a winner at the track and distance fourth-up before going for a break, and with four runs under his belt following that break, he’ll take some catching from out in front. 
Result (3rd)

Race 2 - 12:50PM JUVENILE DIABETES RESEARCH FOUNDATION PLATE (2000 METRES)
LUCKY FOR ALL finished best to score from Danon Roman last start, and that pair can fill the Quinella again. Lucky For All was a tragedy beaten fourth-up last campaign as the $1.40 favourite, but with three runs under his belt this time in, he looks ready to show his best. Danon Roman does meet him better at the weights, but the inside draw may work against him if he drifts a few pairs back. Lucky For All is unbeaten in two starts over 2000m and should get every chance down the Flemington straight from barrier 7.
Result (Unplaced)

Race 4 - 2:10PM DERUCCI CHATHAM STAKES (1400 METRES)
WIDGEE TURF has been racing extremely well this campaign and has only missed the placings once in his past 13 starts as well as racking up nine wins and nine placings from his 23-start career. He was charging home behind Iconoclasm last start over 1500m before that galloper went on to finish 2.5 lengths from Best Of Days in the Group 1 Kennedy Mile. Widgee gets in with 1.5kg less here, has won at Flemington previously and this looks easier. 
Result (2nd)

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Flemington Tips January 19 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Jackson Oldham previews racing from Flemington on Saturday, January 19, and gives his best bets for the meeting.

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