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Racing Bet of the Day November 5 - $19 chance can surprise at Ballarat

Aaron Hamilton in Free Tips 5 Nov 2018
  • Suggested stake: 1 unit to Win and 2 units to Place
  • Confidence rating: Win 75%, Place 90%

A fascinating contest to open the day at Ballarat with a genuine value chance appealing in Race 1, the Craig's Royal Hotel Mdn Plate (1400m).

Really Swish comes out of the Gothic Stakes (1400m) where he finished 2.3 lengths from Ranier who has won again since.

He’s the $1.85 favourite based on that performance, while the Lindsay Park runner, Dalswinton, and Darren Weir’s Countess De Galvez have looked good finishing runner-up in their respective races last start. 

But it’s the Mick Price-trained Vunivalu that I’m keen to have an Each-Way bet on at $19 and $3.50.

He’s always shown plenty of ability but did nothing on debut.

He was gelded following one run and then lined up in the Vobis Gold 2YO Sires (1200m), but after leading at a quick pace, he dropped out in the straight and finished 11 lengths from Thrillster.

Price sent the Toorak Toff gelding to the paddock and he has improved with each run this time in.

For a horse that has led in every start and weakened in the straight, the step up to 1400m for the first time last start looked beyond him. 

However, it was his best run to date, and he only finished 2.5 lengths from the Godolphin filly Waka.

He has speed to burn and should be leading without any trouble at Ballarat on Tuesday.

With that 1400m run under his belt, he should be stronger through the line, and at $19, I think he’s over the odds.

A comparison of his sectionals compared with the favourite’s last start gives me confidence he’ll prove hard to catch if he can improve by a couple of lengths. 

200m splits over 1400m last start:
Vunivalu (from the 1200m to finish) 11.14, 11.86, 11.76, 12.04, 11.66, 12.16
Really Swish (from the 1200m to finish) 11.83, 12.41, 12.32, 12.26, 11.54, 12.35

The rail is out 15m at Ballarat, and if Vunivalu can get a break on the turn, he may prove hard to catch. 

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Racing Bet of the Day November 5 - $19 chance can surprise at Ballarat

A fascinating contest to open the day at Ballarat with a genuine value chance appealing in Race 1, the Craig's Royal Hotel Mdn Plate (1400m).

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