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2018 Kennedy Oaks Runners - Runner-by-Runner guide for the Kennedy Oaks

  • 2018 Kennedy Oaks field 
  • Runner-by-runner preview

Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) winner Amphitrite will head a three-pronged Darren Weir attack on the Group 1 Kennedy Oaks (2500m) at Flemington on Thursday, November 8.

Here is our runner-by-runner guide for the Kennedy Oaks

1. AMPHITRITE (5) - Darren Weir, Craig Williams, 55.5kg 
The early money has come for Amphitrite, who is into clear favourite for the Oaks after the barrier draw. It was a horror watch for Punters who backed her in the Empire Rose (1600m) on Saturday, as Jockey Dean Yendall found himself in a horrible position from barrier seven. She never got clear and was running up the back of horses for the entire straight. Craig Williams is four from four on her this preparation and he jumps back aboard on Thursday. The Thousand Guineas to the Empire Rose into the Oaks is hardly a traditional preparation and the obvious concern is the rise from 1600m to 2500m however, Darren Weir is a freak and she might just be too good for them.
Odds: $3.50 (Pointsbet

2. ARISTIA (4) - Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra, Damian Lane, 55.5kg 
The Lonhro filly broke her maiden in impressive fashion in the Wakeful Stakes (2000m) on Saturday. She proved the stronger stayer, defeating Qafila and El Dorado Dreaming. Admittedly, she did get an absolute peach ride from Damian Lane and had every possible chance. I think the Weir duo of Amphitrite and Verry Elleegant have the class edge but she maps perfectly from barrier four and has to be respected.
Odds: $4.60 (Sportsbet)

3. QAFILA (10) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Jim Crowley, 55.5kg 
The Lindsay Park galloper Qafila is an odd horse to assess. First-up this preparation she ran Sunlight to within a length over 1100m. Six starts later and she’s running in the Oaks. She ran home extremely well in the Wakeful on Saturday, indicating that she will relish the 2500m trip. They settled further forward from the good barrier last start but have drawn barrier 10 here. She will more than likely settle back near the tail which could be an issue. This is her seventh run for the preparation and she could be over the top now. 
Odds: $8.50 (Sportsbet

4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (13) - Darren Weir, John Allen, 55.5kg 
Only a fortnight ago, it seemed as if Verry Elleegant had a stranglehold on this race. Now, it is becoming increasingly more likely that she will start a drifting third favourite. The daughter of Zed has performed well in Australia, running third behind Amphitrite first-up before winning the Ethereal Stakes (2000m). It was clear that her run in the Wakeful Stakes (2000m) on Saturday was nothing more than a barrier trial to try and teach her to settle. Jockey John Allen looked like he was under strict instructions to restrain the horse at all costs. That gave her no chance of victory. Over the longer trip and slower tempo, will she overrace again? If she settles she is more than likely the best stayer in the race. 
Odds: $5.00 (Beteasy)

5. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR (1) - Mark Newnham, Tim Clark, 55.5kg 
Greysful Glamour bolted in the Oaks Trial (1800m) back in September, the race Pinot won last year before winning the Oaks six weeks later. The daughter of Stratum returned in the Ethereal Stakes (2000m) and was disappointing. Jockey Tim Clark reported that the horse didn’t appreciate racing inside other horses. The isn’t ideal news, seeing as the horse has drawn barrier one. I’m expecting Tim Clark to be extremely positive from the barrier and have her leading clearly at the post the first time. 
Odds: $16.00 (Ladbrokes)

6. SIZZLEME (14) - Cindy Alderson, Luke Currie, 55.5kg 
The Cindy Alderson-trained Sizzleme is an extremely honest filly. She has performed well in all the Oaks lead-up races, running fourth in the Oaks trial, third in the Ethereal Stakes and fourth in the Wakeful Stakes. She led the field in the Wakeful on Saturday and looks forced to go forward from barrier 14.  She looks a few lengths off these top filly’s and might be found out at the end of 2500m. 
Odds: $26.00 (Sportsbet)

7. DARK CONFIDANT (15) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Regan Bayliss, 55.5kg
The Lindsay Park-trained galloper looks a good roughie in the race to my eye. Two starts ago she got right out the back in the Edward Manifold (1600m). She ran some nice sectionals behind Amphitrite, running the second-quickest last 200m of the race. I’m willing to forgive her last start run in the Ethereal Stakes (2000m). She got too far back again and never quickened on the soft track. She will get a long way back again from barrier 15 but can run home late and is one for the exotics. 
Odds: $41.00 (Ladbrokes)
8. MISS MOANA (9) - John Sargent, Mark Zahra, 55.5kg 
John Sargent-trained horses must be respected and he brings Miss Moana down for the Oaks. She was a long way off the smart Girl Tuesday four starts ago over 1400m but has improved over further ground. She proved too strong in a Newcastle maiden (2340m) last start, defeating Arlington Magic, who could only manage a fourth in her next start in maiden company. She will stay the trip but I’m happy to risk her. 
Odds: $26.00 (Sportsbet

9. MARACAIBO (8) - Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young, Stephen Baster, 55.5kg 
The daughter of Redoute's Choice has won her last two races, admittedly in weaker grade. A Canberra class one victory was followed by a Benchmark 58 victory at Benalla (2046m). Jockey Stephen Baster won this race last year but I’d be surprised if she’s good enough to win this. 
Odds: $34.00 (Beteasy)

10. SCAMPER (12) - Leon & Troy Corstens, Kerrin McEvoy, 55.5kg
Her last start victory was only in a Yarra Valley maiden but I was impressed with the performance. She copped a bump at the start and settled in the back quarter of the field. She looped the field on the home turn which is hard to do at Yarra Valley before drawing away. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy is in terrific form after winning the Cup on Tuesday. 
Odds: $41.00 (Bet365

11. ZAPURLER (3) - Darren Weir, Hugh Bowman, 55.5kg 
Darren Weir and Hugh Bowman combine with the daughter of High Chaparrel, Zapurler. She ran a close-up second to Grinzinger Star two starts ago, who has franked that form by running third in the Geelong Classic before running in the Victoria Derby. She got every possible chance last start at Echuca, not going around a horse and she was entitled to win by the margin she did. She draws to get a soft run from barrier three. 
Odds: $13.00 (Beteasy

12. COLLECTABLE (11) - Robbie Griffiths, James McDonald, 55.5kg 
The Robbie Griffiths-trained Collectable is still a maiden after four starts but is set to perform well here.
She was the eye-catcher last start in the Ethereal Stakes, running fourth behind Verry Elleegant and Arisita on a on-pace bias track. The clocked backed up what we saw visually. She ran the equal-fastest last 400m (24.99s), the fastest last 600m (37.26s), 800m (48.91s) and 1000m (1:01:15). The 2500m should be a positive and James McDonald goes on board. She is over the odds.
Odds: $19.00 (Sportsbet)

13. EXCLUSIVELY OURS (6) - Matthew Brown, Ben Thompson, 55.5kg 
She couldn’t match Scamper two starts ago at Yarra Valley before running last in the Wakeful Stakes. This looks too tough. 
Odds: $201.00 (Ladbrokes)

14. MINER’S MISS (2) - Paddy Payne, Michelle Payne, 55.5kg
If she can win here, that $6.70 on offer for her last start in an Avoca maiden (1860m) will look like the biggest overs of all time. She won well but this looks a bridge too far.
Odds: $51.00 (Beteasy
15. LESEDI (7) - Robbie Laing, Noel Callow, 55.5kg 
Robbie Laing knows how to train stayers but a third in a Kilmore maiden doesn’t look good enough for an Oaks. 
Odds: $201.00 (Beteasy

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2018 Kennedy Oaks Runners - Runner-by-Runner guide for the Kennedy Oaks

Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) winner Amphitrite will head a three-pronged Darren Weir attack on the Group 1 Kennedy Oaks (2500m) at Flemington on Thursday, November 8.

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