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2019 CF Orr Stakes Runners - Runner-by-Runner guide for the CF Orr Stakes

  • Runner-by-runner guide for the Group 1 C.F. Orr Stakes (1400m)
Hartnell wins the 2018 CF Orr Stakes

The first Group 1 for 2019 will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday, with the running of the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes (1400m). The James Cummings-trained Kementari holds early favouritism. 

Here is our runner-by-runner guide for the C.F. Orr Stakes.

1. BRAVE SMASH (7) - Kris Lees, Michael Walker, 59kg 
Brave Smash is now trained by Kris Lees. I know plenty of punters were on him first-up but don’t  read anything into his performance in the Australia Stakes. He wasn’t even entered for the race at the start of the week before Weir decided to run him for fitness, putting Michael Walker on board. Walker only gave him one slap across the shoulder coming into the straight, treating the race like a barrier trial. He ran second-last in the Australia Stakes last year and bounced right back in the Orr Stake second-up, running third behind Hartnell. I’m expecting a much improved effort for him on Saturday.
Odds: $9.50 (Unibet

2. REDKIRK WARRIOR (10) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Regan Bayliss, 59kg 
The Lindsay Park stable may be struggling for form but they have Redkirk Warrior back to his best. He put the writing on the wall with an imposing jumpout at Flemington and took that to raceday, running an outstanding fifth in the Australia Stakes. He ran the fastest last 400m and 600m of the racing, running his last 600m 5.8 lengths quicker than the class benchmark. He should take natural improvement from that run. The concern is from a map point of view, from barrier 10 with Regan Bayliss on he is likely to get back to last, which could be too far back.
Odds: $18.00 (Neds


3. FELL SWOOP (13) - Matthew Dale, Damien Oliver, 59kg
I can’t make a case that Fell Swoop is a legitimate winning chance. He has never raced over 1400m in his 33-start career and although the 1400m at Caulfield isn’t a testing 1400m, I still feel like he struggles against the likes of Land Of Plenty, Redkirk Warrior and Brave Smash who all have a run under their belt. He got his opportunity last start in the Australia Stakes, getting the perfect run and he made the most of it, finishing second behind Whispering Brook. He has a horror map from barrier 13 and will need a magic ride from Ollie to figure in the placings.
Odds: $21.00 (Sportsbet)
 
4. KEMENTARI (2) - James Cummings, James McDonald, 59kg 
Our favourite for the race is the four-year-old son of Lonhro, Kementari. He was unlucky to not win a Group 1 in the Spring, finishing in the placings in the Memsie Stakes (1400m) and Manikato Stakes (1200m). Godolphin has finally made jockey change that comes one preparation too late in many people's eyes, with Glyn Schofield off and James McDonald on. The map is the obvious concern with Kementari, from barrier two he will be back on the fence. If he gets the luck, he will go very close to winning but keep in mind if you’re taking the $3.30, It’s unlikely to be an easy watch. 
Odds: $3.40 (Sportsbet)

5. MATERIAL MAN (6) - Justin Warwick, Lucy Warwick, 59kg
The W.A. visitor beat all bar Arcadia Queen in the Group 1 Kingston Town (1600m) last start. He maps to get a cosy run near the speed from barrier six but Lucy Warwick in a Group 1 in Melbourne is a massive concern for me. I’m happy to risk him.
Odds: $31.00 (Ladbrokes
 
6. D’ARGENTO (1) - Chris Waller, Kerrin McEvoy 59kg
D’Argento hasn’t been seen at the races since leading and running a respectable race in the Cox Plate (2040m) considering the circumstances. He did run well behind Winx in the Winx Stakes over 1400m first-up in the Spring but from barrier one and his usual pattern, I’m happy enough to oppose him at the price.  
Odds: $12.00 (Sportsbet)
 
7. LAND OF PLENTY (11) - Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, Damian Lane, 59kg 
Now with Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, Land Of Plenty only needs to hold his form to go very close here. I loved the way he hit the line first-up in the Australia Stakes, running 4.6 lengths faster than class benchmark over the final 600m. He went so close at this track and distance third-up last preparation, running third (beaten 0.2 lengths) behind Jungle Cat in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. If D.Lane can find a position three-wide with cover, I think he will be very hard to beat. 
Odds: $6.00 (Unibet)

8. BEST OF DAYS (4) - James Cummings, Craig Williams, 59kg 
With the blinkers on, Best Of Days showed he is an elite miler, winning the Group 1 Cantala Stakes (1600m) defeating Le Romain and Peaceful State. The blinkers stay on, which is important to note but his barrier trial suggested he’ll need the run. 
Odds: $17.00 (Sportsbet)

9. MOSS ‘N’ DALE (12) - Peter Gelagotis, Jack Martin (a), 59kg 
The six-year-old strung three wins together last preparation, including a tough win on a heavy track in the Craven Plate (2000m) defeating Egg Tart. He flies for jockey Jack Martin but is probably at least a few lengths off Group One level. I’d rather back him in something slightly easier second-up.
Odds: $27.00 (Sportsbet

10. SO SI BON (15) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Luke Nolen, 59kg
He finally broke through for a victory two starts ago at Caulfield and ran well behind the in-form Silentz last start at Flemington. With that being said, I’m happy to give up the punt if he wins a Group 1. 
Odds: $101.00 (Ladbrokes
 
11. MANUEL (3) - Tony McEvoy, Luke Currie, 59kg
I thought his run in the Australia Stakes was full of merit. It was his first go in Group class and he sat three-wide with no cover on-speed and still managed to go to the line with the likes of Fifty Stars. That run could’ve been a gut buster and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a flat run, however, he maps to get a soft run in transit and I won’t be losing on him at $41. 
Odds: $41.00 (Beteasy)

12. MASK OF TIME (5) - Ciaron Maher & David Eustace,Jordan Childs , 59kg 
First-up over 1400m last preparation he ran into fourth as a $21 chance in Open grade at Flemington. His recent barrier trial was ok at best and I’d be surprised if he ran in the top 10.
Odds: $101.00 (Sportsbet)

13. HOLBIEN (16) - Steve Richards, Patrick Moloney, 59kg 
He wasn’t far away from the likes of Whispering Brook and Manolo Blahniq earlier this preparation before having no luck last start at Caulfield. With that being said, I couldn’t take $34 with Patrick Moloney on board from barrier 16. 
Odds: $35.00 (Sportsbet)

14. FIFTY STARS (9) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Ben Allen, 58.5kg 
Fifty Stars was terrific first-up in the Australia Stakes, running the second-fastest last 200m and 400m of the race. Although I’m not doing my form any differently for these ex-Weir horses until I see something that suggests I should, a horse like Fifty Stars is one I’d proceed with caution. He has risen through the grades and was crunched from $18 into $7.50 for the Australia Stakes first-up. That was a betting move I couldn’t and still can’t explain and therefore, I will be treating this runner with caution. 
Odds: $15.00 (Ladbrokes)

15. SHILLELAGH (14) - Chris Waller, Ben Melham, 57kg 
Shillelagh went to another level last preparation, running terrific races in the Epsom Handicap and Toorak Handicap before a peach of a ride by James McDonald saw her take out the Group 1 Empire Rose (1600m). Her first-up form isn’t the best and she has a similar issue as Redkirk Warrior. They will both be out the back without a lot of speed on paper and both could just be too far out of their ground. 
Odds: $15.00 (Beteasy)

16. WHISPERING BROOK (8) - Simon A Miller, Mark Zahra, 57kg
I was extremely bullish about her chances in the Australia Stakes and she got the perfect run to win.She had the ideal setup for that race, fitness, a low barrier with Mark Zahra on board and everything went to plan. We’ve got the money from her now and I’m happy to be against her here. The likes of Land Of Plenty, Brave Smash and Redkirk Warrior have the run under their belts and I can’t imagine she gets all the favours again. The 1400m is also a query. 
Odds: $7.00 (Unibet)

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2019 CF Orr Stakes Runners - Runner-by-Runner guide for the CF Orr Stakes

The first Group 1 for 2019 will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday, with the running of the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes (1400m). The James Cummings-trained Kementari holds early favouritism.

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