No spam ever. Unsubscribe in one click. By submitting your email address, you indicate your consent to receiving email marketing messages from us.

Australian Derby Betting Tips - How history can help us find the winner?

  • What are the recent trends in the classic staying race for the three-year-olds?
It's A Dundeel is a former winner of the Australian Derby

One of the oldest races in Australia is the Australian Derby (2400m) and the classic race for the three-year-olds has been won by the likes of Phar Lap and Kingston Town, while recent winners include Levendi, Mongolian Khan, Criterion and It's A Dundeel.  

In taking a look at the recent trends of this race, there are a few things for you to consider when it comes to picking a winner. 

The ideal lead up form has generally been the Rosehill Guineas (2000m), run at Rosehill the fortnight prior to the Derby. 12 of the past 19 winners have come out of that race and three have completed the double. That trio are Criterion in 2014, Eremein in 2005 and Starcraft in 2004. 

Of the remaining seven winners since 2000, four have come out of the Tulloch Stakes (2000m), including Jon Snow last year, while Ethiopia won the Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) prior to his win in 2012. 

The other two were New Zealand gallopers that had their previous run in their homeland, including, Tavago, who claimed the NZ Derby (2400m) prior to his win in this race in 2016, while Nom Du Jeu also raced in NZ before winning the Derby in 2008. 

The 2017 winner, Jon Snow, ran 3rd in the NZ Derby before claiming the Tulloch Stakes. 

This year, The Autumn Sun won the Rosehill Guineas but won't be in action in the Derby. Arrogant and Chapada placed behind that horse. 

Other runners that come out of this year's Rosehill Guineas include Surely Sacred, Aramayo and Costello. Arrogant and Surely Sacred were unplaced in the NZ Derby prior to that. 

With the exception of Fairway in 2000, every horse that has gone on to win the Derby has finished inside the top five at their previous start. 

Chapada is a $5 favourite in early markets with BetEasy ahead of Arrogant, while Global Exchange and Stars Of Carrum are both at $8. Declarationofheart is at $10, while Madison County heads the rest at $11. 

Madison County was runner-up last Saturday in the Tulloch Stakes, finishing behind Angel Of Truth. Jon Snow claimed that lead up in 2017 before winning the Derby. 

It should be noted that it hasn't all been one-way traffic for favourites in this race. Only four of the last 19 leading fancies have saluted including Criterion and It's A Dundeel, the latter of whom won at $1.25 in 2013. 

Horses to miss out over the years as the popular elect include Gingernuts in 2017 as well as Jimmy Choux in 2011, Carnegie Express in 2002 and Blackfriars in 2000. The average starting price of the winners has been $9. Five of the past 16 winners have paid more than $10, including Ethiopia, Roman Emperor and Nom Du Jeu. 

Arrogant and Chapada have drawn barriers 12 and 13 respectively. Only three winners since 2000 have drawn in double digits. Five winners have jumped from barrier 1 and three from barrier 3. This year, Declarationofheart and Cossetot jump from those spots. 

The most successful trainer in the race since 2000 has been Murray Baker with four winners and the Kiwi horseman saddles up Madison County and The Chosen One this year. 

Horses from across the ditch have won the race seven times since 2000 and are also represented by  In A Twinkling, Surely Sacred and Platinum Invador. Arrogant recently transferred to Mike Moroney's Flemington stables. 

Selections based on trends

This is a very difficult one to predict this year. The inclination is to go with a Kiwi contender that comes out of the Rosehill Guineas. Given that a number of recent winners have paid double figure odds, In A Twinkling might be the value

Share this with your friends

Your comments:

Australian Derby Betting Tips - How history can help us find the winner?

What are the recent trends in the classic staying race for the three-year-olds?

Read more »

You have unread messages

You have unread messages