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2019 Australian Derby Runners - Runner-by-Runner guide for the Australian Derby

  • Runner-by-runner guide for the Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m) 
Global Exchange (PA Images)

A capacity field of 18 runners contest Saturday’s Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m) at Royal Randwick. 

Here is our runner-by-runner guide. 

1. EXTRA BRUT (18) - Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, Sam Clipperton, 56.5kg 
The Victoria Derby winner was good first-up without luck. He went to the Australian Guineas last start and pulled up with heat stress but still ran the fourth-fastest last 200m of the race. He has had 33 days between runs and will get a long way back and needs the speed on to be a factor. I’ll be willing to risk off his preparation. 
Odds: $21.00 (Sportsbet)

2. MADISON COUNTY (11) - Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman, Tommy Berry, 56.5kg 
He was given a less than perfect ride from Tommy Berry last start and he admitted as such post-race. He was back on the fence and swung wide, as the runs opened up on the fence. He went 7.9 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m and ran the fastest 600m-400m and 400m-200m split and then the third-fastest last 200m. The step-up to 2400m is the only query but he looks in this race. 
Odds: $12.00 (Ladbrokes

3. IN A TWINKLING (15) - Jamie Richards, Opie Bosson, 56.5kg 
He was given an absolute peach of a ride from James McDonald in the Tulloch Stakes seven days ago and I thought he was entitled to finish off better than what he did and was weak through the line. JMac jumps off and Opie Bosson jumps on from barrier 15. I can’t have him.
Odds: $41.00 (Ladbrokes

4. ARROGANT (12) - Michael Moroney, Craig Williams, 56.5kg 
Arrogant was given a terrific ride from Craig Williams last start in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and almost tipped out The Autumn Sun, giving him an almighty battle down the straight. He went eight-lengths above benchmark and a repeat of that performance will see him in this finish. 
Odds: $6.50 (Bet365)

5. CHAPADA (13) - Michael Moroney, Damien Oliver, 56.5kg 
He should’ve won the Derby last preparation. He ran the best last 600m of the race first-up in the C.S. Hayes (8.9 lengths above benchmark). Forget his run two starts ago in the Australian Guineas (1600m) where he pulled up with an irregular heartbeat. He was huge last start in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) when he was $61 into $26. He was held-up between the 600m-400m and was huge late, running the fastest 400m-200m of the race but was being held over the last furlong, running the third-fastest last 200m. Ollie sticks and he looks ready to peak fourth-up. He is a big winning chance.
Odds: $6.00 (Beteasy)

6. SURELY SACRED (6) - Tony Pike, Damian Lane, 56.5kg 
He ran the fastest 600m-400m split and the fourth-fastest 400m-200m of the race last start in the Rosehill Guineas behind The Autumn Sun. Damian Lane sticks and barrier six suits. I’m assuming 2400m will suit but I can’t find a spot for him in my top four.
Odds: $21.00 (Ladbrokes)

7. PLATINUM INVADER (14) - Lisa Latta, Jonathan Riddell, 56.5kg 
There isn’t enough in the data to suggest he is good enough to win this. B.Shinn to J.Riddell and barrier two to barrier 14 are two very big negatives. Not here.
Odds: $41.00 (Ladbrokes

8. GLOBAL EXCHANGE (8) - Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, Kerrin McEvoy, 56.5kg 
Global Exchange looked to have a mortgage on this race three weeks ago but the task has gotten much tougher and the market has reflected that, with him drifting out to a double-figure price. His win two starts ago in the Group 2 Autumn Classic at Caulfield was terrific, as he went 11.3 lengths above benchmark. He went to The Valley last start and won despite not handling the track. He still ran the quickest last 200m, 400m, 600m, 800m and 1000m of the race. He is a really good type and Kerrin McEvoy should give him all the favours from barrier eight. Looks the overs.
Odds: $11.00 (Beteasy)

9. STARS OF CARRUM (10) - Robbie Laing, Hugh Bowman, 56.5kg 
Stars Of Carrum was beaten easily by Global Exchange two starts ago at The Valley but that was over 2040m. He wasn’t suited by the early tempo the Mornington Cup, as the leader Trap For Fools went 9.5 lengths below benchmark to the 600m. He can improve off that but will need to improve sharply to win.
Odds: $11.00 (Sportsbet)

10. ARAMAYO (19) - James Cummings, Tim Clark, 56.5kg 
His last two runs behind The Autumn Sun have been fair. He does have an SP over Global Exchange in the Group Two Autumn Classic (1800m) at Caulfield but is likely to be cast from barrier 19.
Odds: $23.00 (Beteasy)

11. ANGEL OF TRUTH (4) - Gwenda Markwell, Corey Brown, 56.5kg 
He got the perfect run last start in the Tulloch Stakes (2000m) but still got the job done well to defeat Madison County. He gets G1 Corey Brown on board and he is in-form over the last few weeks. He maps well from barrier four and I like the quick back-up. Must be given a chance.
Odds: $17.00 (Sportsbet)

12. THE CHOSEN ONE (17) - Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman, Blake Shinn, 56.5kg 
He started $34 and finished 11th, beaten 5.8 lengths behind Crown Prosecutor and In A Twinkling in the NZ Derby. He was seventh behind Surely Scared in the Avondale Guineas and that form doesn’t look good enough to win this. B.Shinn goes on is a positive but looks outclassed.
Odds: $27.00 (Sportsbet)

13. COSSETOT (3) - James Cummings, Gyn Schofield, 56.5kg 
He is an honest horse but could well be over the top now. There was a big move for him the Tulloch Stakes last start $5.50 into $3.40 and got the perfect run but simply wasn’t good enough, finishing 2.8 lengths off Angel Of Truth. I’m not sure if the 2400m will suit and Glyn from gate three is scary. Too short in the market for mine.
Odds: $27.00 (Sportsbet)

14. DECLEARATIONOFHEART (1) - Anthony Freedman, Mark Zahra, 56.5kg 
He needs another win for me to be backing him. He beat all bar Global Exchange last start at The Valley but that was probably his opportunity to beat that horse. His run behind Mystic Journey in the Australian Guineas (1600m). Barrier one looks sticky as he maps buried on the fence. 
Odds: $15.00 (Beteasy)

15. COSTELLO (9) - David Payne, Jason Collett, 56.5kg 
He went from a Benchmark 74 over 1800m to the Rosehill Guineas last start and just battled away for sixth. He’s trending like the 2400m will suit but he looks outclassed.
Odds: $67.00 (Sportsbet)

16. TWINSPIER (7) - Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young, Luke Nolen, 56.5kg 
He was held-up behind Secret Blaze in a legless race last start at Bendigo and finished off ok for fourth. The figures from that race aren’t good enough and although I respect the stablem, I couldn’t have him.
Odds: $151.00 (Unibet)

17. SHAMAN (2) - Anthony Cummings, Travis Wolfgram, 56.5kg 
He was coming off a class 1 fourth at Newcastle when going into the Tulloch Stakes last start. He started $26 and ran a credible seventh but this looks a bridge too far. M.Zahra to T.Wolfgram isn’t ideal either.
Odds: $126.00 (Ladbrokes

18. FRANKELY AWESOME (16) - Kris Lees, James McDonald, 54.5kg 
She was very good behind Pohutukawa in Kembla Grange Classic (1600m) two starts ago over an unsuitable distance, she ran the second-fastest last 200m of the race. The step-up to 2000m suited her last start and she ran a huge race behind Verry Elleegant, running the fastest last 200m in the race. The 2400m should be yet another positive. J.Collett to J.McDonald is a positive jockey change and JMac will try and blend her into the race three-wide with cover. She’s already been $11 into $6.00 and is a big player.
Odds: $6.50 (Bet365)


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2019 Australian Derby Runners - Runner-by-Runner guide for the Australian Derby

A capacity field of 18 runners contest Saturday’s Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m) at Royal Randwick.

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