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Black Caviar Lightning Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • What are the recent trends in the Black Caviar Lightning?
Black Caviar

The short course sprinters are set to burn down the Flemington straight on Saturday February 17 in the Black Caviar Lightning (1000), a race that has been won by some out and out champions over the years. 

The $750,000 Group 1, which is registered as the Lightning Stakes, underwent a name change in 2013 to honour the mighty mare, Black Caviar, who won the race in 2011, 2012 and 2013. 

Other big names to have claimed the Lightning include the barnstorming 2016 winner, Chautauqua, while Takeover Target (2006), Choisir (2003) and Schillaci (1992-93), are other guns to grace the honour roll. 

In looking at the trends of the race since the year 2000, there are a few things for you to consider when it comes to picking a winner. 

The average price of the winning horses has been just $6.60, although this number has been compressed somewhat due to the dominance of Black Caviar, who paid $1.28, $1.10 and $1.10 in her three wins. 

A total of six favourites have won the race. Outside of Black Caviar's hat trick, Chautauqua, Miss Andretti (2007) and Takeover Target were the other three that started as popular elects before going on to win. Last year, Redkirk Warrior saluted at the odds of $10

Interestingly, horses that started second favourite in the Lightning have a great record including Lankan Rupee, who knocked over the previously unbeaten Deep Field in 2015. 

This year, Sunlight heads the market with sportsbet at $4, while In Her Time is a $5 pop. Osborne Bulls ($6.50), Graff ($6.50), Written By ($8) and Lean Mean Machine ($8) are other major contenders. 

All of those gallopers bar Osborne Bulls and In Her Time are three-year-olds. That age group has won the Lightning on four occasions since 2000 but none have won since Fastnet Rock defeated Alinghi in a memorable edition of the race in 2005. 

One of the big talking points heading into the race has been the impending appearance of Jedastar, who is a two-year-old filly from the Lloyd Kennewell stable. The last two-year-olds to appear in the Lightning were Boomwaa and Bugatty in 2015. Both finished down the track. She is the first two-year-old filly to race since 1993 when Clever Zoe finished runner-up to the mighty Schillaci. 
Sunlight will be out to become the first three-year-old filly to win the Lightning since Regimental Gal in 2004. 

Barriers can play a decisive role in the Lightning Stakes and horses in either the inner or outer two barriers have dominated with 12 of the 19 winners. 

This year’s field of 11 is just above the long term average of 10. Barrier's 1, 2 and 6 have each provided three winners in the Lightning since 2000. Choisir was a famous winner as he went it alone on the fence in 2003, while the rest of the field headed to the grandstand side at Flemington. 

This year, In Her Time has drawn the inside, while Jedastar is next to her. Glenall jumps from barrier 6, while Lean Mean Machine and Written By are in the two outermost barriers. 

The most successful trainer in the race since 2000 has been Peter Moody, courtesy of Black Caviar, while Paul Perry enjoyed success with Choisir and Fastnet Rock. 

Leading jockeys in the race include Luke Nolen with three winners, while Craig Newitt, Damien Oliver, Glen Boss and Steven Arnold have also enjoyed success in the race on two occasions since 2000. This year, none of those hoops are in action.

Finally, the ideal lead up form has come from horses that have raced in one of the big sprints during Melbourne Cup week. Six of the past nine winners have had their last start at Flemington during cup week with five of those coming out of the VRC Classic (1200m). 

In Her Time finished runner-up in that race last year. Sunlight, Lean Mean Machine has their most recent runs in the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) at Flemington, while Osborne Bulls was a winner in the TAB Stakes (1200m). 

Selection based on trends:

It is an intriguing version of the race this year with some high class youngsters taking on the older horses. Recent history suggests to look for one with more experience and In Her Time ticks plenty of boxes. 

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Black Caviar Lightning Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

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