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Caulfield Cup Runner-by-Runner guide

  • 2019 Caulfield Cup runner-by-runner guide
Finche

The 2019 Caulfield Cup (2400m) will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday and it looks a highly competitive race.

Here is our runner-by-runner guide for the Caulfield Cup.

1. HARTNELL (17) - James Cummings, Brad Rawiller, 58kg
The old warrior Hartnell is having his first start over further than 2000m since the 2017 Melbourne Cup. It’s very hard to knock him, as he’s run in the top four in his last nine starts and has a perfect platform for this race, sixth-up with two runs at 1400m, a fast run 1600m, an 1800m run and then 2000m last start in the Turnbull Stakes, where he was left a sitting duck. He runs his best races when the speed is on, which he will likely get and is actually well weighted despite having the top weight of 58kg. 
Odds: $19.00 (Beteasy)

2. MIRAGE DANCER (13) - Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young, Ben Melham, 56kg 
He sat outside the lead and grinded away into third two starts ago in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes (2400m) behind Defoe who had beat Kew Gardens in a G1 the start prior. He posted a timeform rating of 119 in that race, which puts him around the mark. His last start second at Goodwood was another grinding run and that made me wonder if he has the turn of foot to win a Caulfield Cup. Unlike some of the other internationals, his best form is over 2400m and they have brought this horse out for a Caulfield Cup, not a Melbourne Cup. 
Odds: $17.00 (Sportsbet)

3. MER DE GLACE (21) - Hisashi Shimizu, Damian Lane, 55.5kg 
I found it very hard to line-up the Japanese form. What I will say is, he looks to have an explosive turn of foot which will take him a long way and he is progressive and still on the way up. His timeform rating of 121 puts him right around the mark and Damian Lane on board is an obvious positive. My concern is, he has been racing on genuine firm tracks. With the rain around during the week and the Good 4 track policy, will it be firm enough for him?
Odds: $7.50 (Beteasy)

4. MUSTAJEER (16) - Kris Lees, Damien Oliver, 55.5kg
He is an interesting runner for Kris Lees. He didn’t get a race shape two starts ago in the Curragh Cup (2800m) in a race that was dominated by the horses on-speed including Latrobe. He won the Ebor (2787m) last start but had the complete perfect run. His timeform rating of 119 puts him right in the race but he might just lack an explosive turn of foot and I think Ollie will need to get moving early to put him into the race. I would assume a Melbourne Cup is his target race. 
Odds: $11.00 (Ladbrokes)



5. ROSTROPOVICH (18) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Dwayne Dunn, 55.5kg 
He was fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year and has another crack at a Cups preparation this year. First-up he was outstanding in the Makybe Diva and the overraced off a slow tempo last start in the Turnbull Stakes. He has plenty of gear changes here including the tongue tie off first time, which is interesting. He’ll be better suited in a Melbourne Cup. 
Odds: $23.00 (Sportsbet)

6. FINCHE (19) - Chris Waller, MIchael Walker, 54.5kg 
I can’t fault anything Finche has done in Australia, especially this preparation. It was a good pipe opener first-up in the Chelmsford Stakes, he went to the Kingston Town second-up and beat up on a bunch of walkers. He was heavily backed last start in the Turnbull Stakes ($10 into $5.50), he ran 2L above class benchmark his last 200m and had a better last furlong than Mystic Journey and Mr Quickie. Is a slowly run 2000m the best platform for this race? My other concern is will he handle Caulfield.. I’m confident he is much better suited to Flemington. He is in the race but I couldn’t back him at the price. 
Odds: $6.00 (Beteasy)

7. GOLD MOUNT (4) - Ian Williams, Mark Du Plessis, 54.5kg
He was 2000m to 3200m in Dubai Gold Cup three starts ago and got gapped by Cross Counter and Ispolini. He was snicked early but didn't matter in Grand Cup (2816m) bolting in vs Raheen House, those two and Red Verdon went to the line together in G3 Silver Cup (2816m) gut feel is doesn't have the class. He will be back and is big striding horse, Flemington will be more suitable than Caulfield. 
Odds: $23.00 (Sportsbet)

8. RED VERDON (15) - Ed Dunlop, Patrick Cosgrave, 54.5kg 
He started $21 vs Raheen house (started favourite) and Gold Mount (start $4.00) when he won the G3 Silver Cup (2787m) two starts ago then failed in the Ebor last start. He will be out the back and I doubt he is up to these.
Odds: $46.00 (Sportsbet)

9. ANGEL OF TRUTH (14) - Gwenda Markwell, Dean Yendall, 54kg
He resumed ok in the Chelmsford Stakes when seventh behind Samadoubt then finished fifth behind Avilius in the George Main. He did start $4.20 vs Verry Elleegant and was woeful last start, not here.
Odds: $71.00 (Beteasy)
 
10. BIG DUKE (1) - Kris Lees, Brett Prebble, 54kg 
He has produced two really nice closes in his two runs this preparation. First-up in the Kingston Town he ran the fastest last 200m and 400m of the race, running 4.1L above class benchmark over the last 200m. He hit the line well last start in The Metrop (2400m), he ran the third-fastest 400m-200m split in the race and the fastest last 200m. The horse is flying and has the platform to run 2400m but will be buried on the fence from barrier one. 
Odds: $61.00 (Ladbrokes

11. CONSTANTINOPLE (7) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Luke Nolen, 53kg 
He finished second behind South Pacific three starts ago, that horse wasn't awful behind Stradivarius in a Goodwood. He then went to the G3 Gordon Stakes (2412m) and was all over the place in the straight and cost himself the race really behind Nayef Road. Last start  in G2 Voltigeur Stakes (2385m) he finished second behind the unbeaten Logician who franked that form winning the G1 English St Leger at his next start. Lindsay Park have put winkers on, he maps to get a good run from barrier 7 and with timeform rating of 120 he gets in really well at the weights here.
Odds: $9.00 (Sportsbet)

12. MR QUICKIE (10) - Phillip Stokes, John Allen, 53kg 
His first-up run in the Makybe Diva was outstanding, as he savaged the line running his last 200m three-lengths above the G1 benchmark, running the fastest closing sectionals of the day. He was given nothing more than a barrier trial last start in the Turnbull Stakes, snicking back off a speed that was 11.4L below class benchmark to the 600m and just had no chance. He goes third-up into the Caulfield Cup off a 1600m run and a slowly run 2000m, does he have the fitness to win?  
Odds: $9.50 (Sportsbet)

13. CROWN PROSECUTOR (2) - Stephen Marsh, Craig Grylls, 52.5kg 
He has started 40/1 in his last two races in New Zealand vs Melody Belle. He started $26 against The Autumn Sun in his only Australian run and led/weakened. Not here.  
Odds: $46.00 (Sportsbet)

14. VOW AND DECLARE (9) - Danny O’Brien, Craig Williams, 52.5kg
He was on the heels of Mr Quickie in Queensland before bolting in beating Big Duke over 3200m. He resumed in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington and was completely unsuited with the pattern of the day and the tempo of the race that was 8.6 lengths slower than class benchmark to the 600m. He savaged the line and I thought his last 100m was as good as Mystic Journey. I’m confident he is a legitimate G1 stayer but the question is, does he have the platform to win second-up over 2400m? I also think he is a better horse at Flemington than he will be at Caulfield. 
Odds: $9.00 (Beteasy)

15. BRIMHAM ROCKS (20) - Chris Waller, Michael Dee, 52kg 
He got his perfect set-up two starts ago and was good winning the G3 Foundation Cup here at Caulfield. He was able to build momentum from the 800m-400m and got the perfect run. His figure of 4.4L above the class benchmark was good but he was poor last start in the Metropolitan (2400m). He has a good platform but a question of the class and his map.
Odds: $26.00 (Ladbrokes

16. THE CHOSEN ONE (22) - Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman, Stephen Baster, 52kg 
He was $10 into $6.00 late for the Herbert Power and there was unlimited cash to back him. The tempo was against him first-up in the Feehan Stakes and he was coming off a forgivable run second-up in the Underwood Stakes. His overall figure in the Herbert Power of 1.3 lengths above the class benchmark is only average and did get the perfect run in transit and now goes D.Lane to S.Baster.
Odds: $20.00 (Sportsbet)

17. QAFILA (6) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Cory Parish, 51.5kg 
The stable/jockey combination love the Caulfield Cup but she looks completely gone now after a really nice first-up run. She couldn’t have paraded any better last start and showed nothing in the Herbert Power (2400m). She is on the quick back-up and the winkers go on but this seems ambitious. 
Odds: $34.00 (Beteasy)

18. WOLFE (5) - Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott, Beau Mertens, 50kg 
Too good Gai, bringing Wolfe back from 2500m in the Bart Cummings to 2000m at Caulfield 11-days later, the blinkers went on and he was too good, beating Top Of The Range, Kiwia and Sin To Win. He will be on the three-day back-up and the blinkers go off, not for me.
Odds: $23.00 (Beteasy)



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Caulfield Cup Runner-by-Runner guide

The 2019 Caulfield Cup (2400m) will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday and it looks a highly competitive race.

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