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Caulfield Cup Tips - Who does history tell us wins the Caulfield Cup?

  • How does history help us find the winner of the Caulfield Cup?
Elvstroem held off Makybe Diva in a classic edition of the Caulfield Cup

The $5 million Caulfield Cup (2400m) is one of the biggest events on the Australian racing calendar and the gruelling handicap race for stayers has a rich history. 

Famous winners include Tulloch, Tobin Bronze and Might And Power, whilst in recent years the event has attracted a number of overseas runners including Dunaden, who won in 2012, while the ill-fated Japanese runner, Admire Rakti claimed victory in 2014. Last year it was another international galloper, Best Solution, that prevailed. 

Finding a winner for the Caulfield Cup is always a challenge due to the handicap conditions of the race, combined with the large field and the influx of overseas contenders. 

We have had a look at the results of the race since the year 2000 in order to take some of the guesswork out for you and here are a few things to consider. 

The average winning price in that time period has been $13.40 and gallopers closest to that quote in early markets with sportsbet are Vow And Declare at $11, as well as The Chose One and Prince Of Arran (both $15). 

Ahead of that group is the $6 favourite, Finche, Mer De Glace ($8), Constantinople ($9), Mr Quickie ($9.50) and Mustajeer ($10)

For those that are considering backing Finche  keep in mind that the Caulfield Cup has been a bit of a mixed one for favourite backers. Only two horses have won the race in single figure odds since 2007. They were Mongolian Khan, who scored as a $5 popular elect in 2015, while the mare, Jameka, landed as a $4.25 fancy in 2016.  

In 2007, the Danny O'Brien-trained Master O'Reilly was installed favourite after a famous incident involving Maldivian, who was scratched as a raging top pick after playing up in the barriers. 

Last year, Kings Will Dream ran 6th as the $6 favourite, while in 2017 Johannes Vermeer ran 3rd as an $8.50 fancy. Boom Time scored in that race as a $51 shot. Best Solution won at the odds of $12 in 2018. 

It should be noted that favourites had a purple patch in the event in the early 2000s with four successive winners on the trot including memorable efforts from Northerly (2002) and Elvstroem (2004). 

All winners since 2000 have started at $17 or under except for Boom Time in 2017, while the Godolphin winner All The Good scored at $41 in 2008. 

The Turnbull Stakes (2000m) has been one of the proven lead ups to the Caulfield Cup with eight winners coming out of the Flemington Group 1 since 2000 including five of the last nine. 

Of this year's Caulfield Cup runners, Finche (2nd), Hartnell (3rd), Vow And Declare (4th), Sound (7th), Rostropovich (9th) and Mr Quickie (10th) come out of the Turnbull. 

Jameka was 2nd behind Hartnell in 2016 before her triumph. Humidor ran 3rd to the mighty Winx in 2016 and jumped as second favourite in this race before running 5th. 

Since 2000, two Caulfield Cup winners have come out of the Caulfield Stakes (2000m) and they were Mongolian Khan and Mummify in 2003. 

In 2017, Boom Time ran 4th in the Herbert Power and that race has provided just two winners of the Caulfield Cup since 2000. Last year, Best Solution claimed the Preis Von Baden, a 2400m Group 1 race in Germany before winning at Caulfield. 

He joined the ill-fated Admire Rakti as the only international gallopers since 2000 to have won the Caulfield Cup after having their prior start overseas. Four have won this millennium and they were Best Solution, Admire Rakti, Dunaden (2012) and All The Good (2008). 

This year, Mirage Dancer, Mer De Glace, Mustajeer, Gold Mount, Red Verdon, Constantinople and True Self are those that have come to Australia having had their last start overseas. The emergency, Prince Of Arran, is trained overseas but has had a recent Australian run. Crown Prosecutor is a New Zealand galloper. 

The most successful age category since 2000 has been the four-year-olds with nine winners, including Jameka and Mongolian Khan, while Descarado scored for Gai Waterhouse in 2010. 

This year there are seven runners aged four including Angel Of Truth, Constantinople, Mr Quickie, Crown Prosecutor, Vow And Declare, The Chosen One and Qafila, 

Of that group, Qafila is a mare and in the lead up to this race there is sometimes a bit of talk about mares aged four having a good record in the Caulfield Cup. 

34 have started in the Caulfield Cup since 2000 and three have won. They were Jameka in 2016, Southern Speed in 2011 and Ethereal in 2001. Youngstar missed out last year as a $7.50 chance after some good lead up form that saw her narrowly miss out behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. 

Six–year-olds also have a good record with six winners since 2000 including Boom Time and Fawkner in 2013. This year, Mirage Dancer, Finche and Brimham Rocks are six. 

In what is good news for fans of horses that have drawn wide, gallopers have generally been able to come from a wide range of gates in the Caulfield Cup. 

Nine of the 19 winners have come from double figure barriers including Best Solution (15), Dunaden (18) and Descerado (15). Jameka won from 11 in 2016. Some of the notable gallopers to draw out this year include Finche (19), Mer De Glace (21), Mustajeer (16), The Chosen One (22) and Hartnell (17). That group are likely to come in four spots after the removal of the emergencies. 

The most successful barrier to jump from has been barrier 3, providing three winners since 2000.  The emergency, Neufbosc has drawn there this year but it may end up being Gold Mount. No's 6, 9, 10, 11 and 13 have each provided two winners since 2000. 

Going on the performances of runners since 2000, horses carrying either 52kg or 52.5kg have provided six winners, while three have been able to win with 58kg. The average weight carried to victory is 54kg. 

This year the old warrior, Hartnell, carries 58kg. Angel Of Truth and Big Duke both have 54kg. Crown Prosecutor and Vow And Declare have 52.5, while Brimham Rocks and The Chosen One have 52kg. 

Since 2000, only David Hayes and Saeed Bin Suroor have won the race twice as trainers. Hayes was successful in 2006 with Tawqeet and joined his son Ben as well as Tom Dabernig in 2017 to win with Boom Time. That trio have Rostropovich, Constantinople, Qafila and Neufbosc this year. Hayes also won in 1993 with Fraar. Bin Suroor does not have a runner. 

The most successful jockey's in the event since 2000 have been Craig Williams and Nick Hall. Williams won aboard Southern Speed and Dunaden. Hall partnered Fawkner and Jameka. Williams steers Vow And Declare this year. 

It should be noted that Damien Oliver has four wins in the event, which were all in the 90s. Ollie takes the ride on Mustajeer. 

Selections based on trends: 

As always the Caulfield Cup is a wide open affair but the Turnbull Stakes gives us a great guide. Vow And Declare ticks the most boxes in terms of trends.

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Caulfield Cup Tips - Who does history tell us wins the Caulfield Cup?

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