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CF Orr Stakes Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • What are the recent trends in the CF Orr Stakes?
Hartnell claimed the 2018 Orr Stakes

The Orr Stakes (1400m) is traditionally Australia's first Group 1 race of the calendar year and features an honour roll that reads like a who's who of Australian racing. 

Past winners include champions such as Black Caviar, Lonhro, Saintly and Manikato, while in recent times the $500,000 Group 1 has been taken out by the likes of Hartnell and Black Heart Bart. 

When having a bet on this classic race, there are a few things to keep in mind. Favourites have an excellent record, especially in recent times. With the exception of Suavito, who scored as a $15 chance in 2016 the popular fancies have dominated. Between 2010 and 2015, the average price of the winners was just $1.97. 

That figure is compressed somewhat, due to the mighty Black Caviar scoring at the bank interest odds of $1.05 in 2012, while the fellow Peter Moody-trained mare, Typhoon Tracy, saluted at $1.40 in 2010. Typhoon Tracy backed up her win in the Orr by winning again in 2011 at $2. Black Heart Bart saluted as a $3.25 popular elect in 2017. 

Last year, Hartnell lobbed as a $6 chance last year, while Darren Weir's Tosen Stardom flopped as a $4 favourite for the disgraced trainer. 

Since 2000, the average winning price is a bit healthier at $6.20. Shinzig (2008) at $26 and Desert Sky (2001) at $17 are the only other runners apart from Suavito to score at odds of above $10. 

In early markets this year with Ladbrokes this year it is another Godolphin galloper, Kementari that has been posed as a $3.40 favourite. Former Weir gallopers in Land Of Plenty ($5.50), Whispering Brook ($6.50) and Brave Smash ($9) are also under double figure odds. 

The weight-for-age race tends to attract some seasoned horses that are returning from a spell. Horses aged five or six have combined to win 10 of the past 13 Orr Stakes. Hartnell won as a seven-year-old last year. 

Horses aged five this year include Land Of Plenty, Best Of Days, So Is Bon, Manuel, Mask Of Time and Whispering Brook. Brave Smash and Moss N Dale are six. 

It should also be noted that mares have an excellent recent record in the Orr Stakes. In the last 11 years, mares have won the race on five occasions and the girls this year are Shillelagh and Whispering Brook

Horses racing fresh have won eight Orr Stakes since 2000, including Hartnell last year. He was returning after finishing down the track in the previous year's Melbourne Cup (3200m). 

However, six of the past eight winners have had their previous race at Moonee Valley. Five of those six came out of the Australia Stakes (1200m), while All Too Hard was first up after having run in the previous year’s Cox Plate (2040m). 

This year, horses that are resuming are Kementari, Material Man, Best Of Days, Moss N Dale, Mask Of Time and Shillelagh. Whispering Brook (1st), Land Of Plenty (3rd), Redkirk Warrior (5th), Fifty Stars (6th) and Brave Smash (9th) come through the Australia Stakes. 

The 1400 metre start of the Orr Stakes presents a short run to the first turn, which can disadvantage runners to have drawn out and 12 of the past 18 winners have drawn between barriers 1-7. 

Barrier 1 has provided four winners of the race since 2000. This year, D'Argento, Kementari, Manuel, Best Of Days, Mask Of Time, Material Man and Brave Smash occupy those spots. 

The Orr Stakes (1400m) was dominated by Peter Moody gallopers from 2010 to 2015, with five of six winners coming out of that stable in that time period, while other successful trainers since the year 2000 include Lee Freedman and John Hawkes.  Darren Weir won once with Black Heart Bart. James Cummings will be out to join the likes of Moody and Hawkes as back to back winners. 

Of the hoops, Luke Nolen has had four winners courtesy of his association with Peter Moody and will be steering So Is Bon. Craig Williams will be out to make it two wins in a row and he rides Best Of Days.  

Prediction based on trends.

Leading horses in the market have a top record in the Orr Stakes and a recent trend is the Australia Stakes form. Whispering Brook looms as the one. 

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CF Orr Stakes Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

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