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Cox Plate Tips - Who do the trends point towards winning?

  • Analysing the recent history of the weight-for-age championship. 
  • Which horse to the trends point towards?
In 2017, Winx held out Humidor in a classic edition of the Cox Plate

For the purists, the Cox Plate (2040m) is simply the best event on the Australian racing calendar and the Moonee Valley classic features an honour roll that is choc full of the greats. 

Phar Lap, Tulloch, Rising Fast and Kingston Town are just some of the names to have taken out Australia‚Äôs weight-for-age championship. In more recent times, Sunline, Northerly, Makybe Diva and So You Think have rocked the ampitheatre that is the Valley. 

Then of course, there is Winx. The modern day champion notched up a record-breaking fourth win in the race last year with victory ahead of Benbatl and Humidor. 

This year, we enter the post Winx era and the likes of Lys Gracieux, Mystic Journey and Avilius will do battle around the Valley. 

Those three head the early betting markets. Lys Gracieux is a $3.60 chance with sportsbet ahead of Mystic Journey at $6.50, while Avilius is at $10. Kluger, Cape Of Good Hope and Castlevecchio head the rest at $13. 

In order to find you a winner we have looked back through the record books of the race since the year 2000 and it reveals the following trends. 

Eight of the 19 runnings of the Cox Plate have been won by favourites but outside of Winx, that drops to four from 15. The likes of It's A Dundeel, Whobegotyou, Miss Finland, Elvstroem, Lonhro and Sunline missed out as the popular elect. 

Eight of the past 19 winners have scored at double figure odds or higher including the 2013 winner Shamus Award ($21), while Fields Of Omagh also scored at those odds in 2006. 

Favourites to have saluted include Sunline in 2000 at $2.40, while her famous rival, Northerly, saluted at $4 in 2002. In 2005 Makybe Diva triumphed as a $2 favourite. 

Outside of Winx, So You Think is the shortest priced winner since 2000, starting at $1.50 when he won his second Cox Plate in 2010. 

The weight-for-age race has seen both young and old gallopers succeed. Three-year-olds have won the race on three occasions since 2000 with Savabeel (2004), So You Think (2009) and Shamus Award all successful with the lightweight. Castelvecchio is the sole three-year-old this year. 

There has been an even spread of winners from the four, five and six-year-old age groups. Four-year-olds and six-year-olds have won the Cox Plate on six occasions each since 2000. 

Avilius, Homesman, Kings Will Dream and Lys Gracieux are the six-year-olds this year. Cape Of Good Hope, Mystic Journey and Verry Elleegant are four. 



The latter duo are among three mares in the race. The other is the favourite, Lys Gracieux. Sunline, Maybe Diva, Pinker Pinker and Winx are the mares to have won the Cox Plate since 2000 and have combined for eight wins. Sunline also won in 1999, while Dane Ripper won in 1997. 

An interesting statistic is that horses drawn between barriers 3 and 7 have supplied 14 of the past 18 Cox Plates winners. 

Magic Wand, Castelvecchio, Verry Ellegant, Mystic Journey and Avilius are in those spots at the moment. However, they will all come in one spot as the third emergency, Gailo Chop, has been allocated barrier 1. Cape Of Good Hope has drawn barrier 8 but is likely to jump from barrier 7. 

The most successful jockey in the race since 2000 has been Hugh Bowman with four wins courtesy of Winx, while Glen Boss has won the race three times. Craig Williams (twice) is another multiple winner.  

Bowman rides Kings Will Dream this year, while Williams is on Castelvecchio. Boss will be hoping that the second emergency, Mr Quickie, can sneak into the field. 

The key lead ups to the Cox Plate have been the Caulfield Stakes (2000m) and the Turnbull Stakes (2000m). Five winners have come through the Caulfield Stakes and four have claimed the Caulfield Stakes/ Cox Plate double. 

This year, Cape Of Good Hope claimed the Caulfield Stakes from Black Heart Bart. Harlem ran 3rd in that, while Avilius was 4th. 

Five winners since 2000 have come out of the Turnbull Stakes including Winx in 2017 and 2018. This year, it was Kings Will Dream. Mystic Journey ran 5th in that race. 

Finally, for people who are keen on the likes of Lys Gracieux, Kluger, Danceteria, and Magic Wand, keep in mind that the international gallopers generally have a poor record in the Cox Plate. 

Of the gallopers that were trained internationally in their lead up to racing in the Cox Plate, only Adelaide (2014) has won, while Benbatl, Grandera and Folkswood are the only other one to have placed since 2000. 

Grandera came 3rd in 2002 behind Northerly, while Folkswood finished in that spot behind Winx and Humidor last year. 

Selections based on trends;

There is no obvious winner based on trends but Cape Of Good Hope does tick enough boxes and represents value at the each-way quote. 



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Cox Plate Tips - Who do the trends point towards winning?

Analysing the recent history of the weight-for-age championship. Which horse to the trends point towards?

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