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Kennedy Oaks Tips - Favourite and $51 chance appeal

  • Favourite looks hard to beat.
  • $51 chance to consider
Craig Williams riding Amphitrite

There are two fillies that I’m keen on ahead of Thursday’s Group 1 Kennedy Oaks (2500m) at Flemington – and they are poles apart in the market.

Firstly, Darren Weir’s Amphitrite is the $3.30 favourite, and her unlucky run in the Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) could be a blessing in disguise. 

She was blocked for a run down the straight and never really got clear, and with a lot of these horses backing up from last Saturday, at least Amphitrite should have plenty left in the tank.

The query with Amphitrite – and most horses – is will they get the trip?

Amphitrite has the breeding to get it and her racing style suggests she’ll appreciate getting back and finishing off hard over longer, but we simply won’t know until Thursday.

As long as she gets the trip, Amphitrite is clearly the one they all have to beat. 

But there is one horse at massive odds I think can run a big race.

Jockey Michelle Payne is no stranger to causing a boilover in a Flemington feature, and at headquarters on Thursday, Payne rides Miner’s Miss for her father Paddy Payne.

Having created history by becoming the first female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup aboard 100/1 chance Prince Of Penzance in 2015, Payne will be looking to become the first female to win the VRC Oaks.

Ironically, her mount is by Rebel Raider who Clare Lindop rode to success when becoming the first female to win the Victoria Derby at Flemington.

And as far as names go, horses with ‘Miss’ in their name have fared well in the Oaks with Miss Finland (2006) and Samantha Miss (2008) being previous winners.

But with omens and historical trends pushed to the side, Miner’s Miss looks way over the odds and certainly has the breeding to stay all day – which is what 80 percent of this field will struggle to do. 

As well as being by Rebel Raider, Miner’s Miss is out of the Gallo Di Ferro mare Posnet who is a winner over 2200m. 

She finished alongside Darren Weir’s Zapurler at Ballarat over 2200m when that pair were edged out by Grinzinger Star who finished seven lengths from Extra Brut in the Victoria Derby.

While Zapurler has gone on to win by 3.5 lengths at her next start and is a $12 chance on Thursday, Miner’s Miss has won by 4.5 lengths at Avoca and is a $50 chance on Saturday.

She was powering through the line last time and is getting better with each and every start.

She’ll get back from barrier 2, but with some stout breeding on her side, she should be strong through the line and could surprise at massive odds. 

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Kennedy Oaks Tips - Favourite and $51 chance appeal

There are two fillies that I’m keen on ahead of Thursday’s Group 1 Kennedy Oaks (2500m) at Flemington – and they are poles apart in the market.

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