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George Main Stakes Tips - Who does history predict?

  • No problems for favourites over the years
  • Race dominated by Winx in recent times
  • Chelmsford Stakes a key lead up, can Avilius turn the tables?
Lonhro is a former winner of the George Main Stakes

The Colgate Optic White Stakes (1600m), which is registered as the George Main Stakes, is a major lead up to the Epsom Handicap (1600m) and is a brilliant race in its own right, always won by high-class performers. 

The Randwick weight-for-age is worth $500,000 and has been won by guns such as Defier (2002), Lonhro (2003), Grand Armee (2004) and More Joyous (2010). 

But it is the mightiest of them all, Winx, that stands out above those and registered a hat-trick of wins in the 2018 version of the George Main. She claimed the event in 2016 as a $1.09 favourite before saluting at $1.12 in 2017.  She won at $1.10 in last year. 

This year, the recently retired champion will not be in action, opening it up for the likes of Avilius, who has been installed as a $3.70 favourite in early markets with sportsbet. 

So just which of this year's contenders can take out the Group 1? If we look through the results since the year 2000 it reveals the following trends.  

12 favourites have won the event since 2000 including four at odds on and they were Winx in 2016/17/18 as well as More Joyous (2010), Racing To Win (2006) and Grand Armee (2004). Kermadec scored as a $2.35 chance in 2015, while Lonhro won at similar odds in 2003. 

No horse has lost as an odds on favourite this millennium, although another mighty mare, Sunline, was rolled as a $1.60 chance by Shogun Lodge in 1999. 

Only two horses have won above $10. Road To Rock caused a boilover in 2009, winning at $41 and Adam saluted at $13 in 2000. The average winning price since the year 2000 is $5.90 although that number has been compressed somewhat due to the dominance of Winx. 

Behind Avilius in this year's market are Dreamforce at $4.50 and Happy Clapper at $5. Verry Elleegant is at $6.50 in front of the recent giant-killer, Samadoubt, at $7. Danzdanzdance heads the rest at $15. 

The field of 11 is slightly above the long-term average of eight runners in this race and with the smallish fields, barriers haven’t tended to be a factor in the event with winners coming from a variety of positions. 

Horses to jump from between barrier's 1 to 5 have been the most successful with 12 wins in total in that time period. No runner has won from Barrier 2 or 7 since before the year 2000. 

The most successful age group in the George Main Stakes since 2000 has been the five-year-olds with eight winners. Danzdanzdance and Youngstar are the five-year-olds this year. 

Danzdanzdance and Youngster are two of four mares in the race and the others are Con Te Partiro and Verry Elleegant. Outside of Winx, Streama and More Joyous are other members of the fairer sex to salute since 2000.

Winx' trainer, Chris Waller, has been the most successful trainer in the race since 2000 with six wins, while Gai Waterhouse and John Hawkes have registered three wins apiece in that time period. 

Waller has won six of the past seven editions and saddles up Life Less Ordinary, Youngstar and Verry Elleegant this year. Waterhouse has Con Te Partiro. 

The most successful jockeys since 2000 are Hugh Bowman with three winners, while Corey Brown and Blake Shinn have two wins apiece. None of that trio will be riding in this year's edition of the race. 

Finally, the main form references in the past have been the Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) and the Winx Stakes (1400m). Four winners have had their previous run in the Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) and two have come out of the Tramway Stakes (1400m). 

This year, Samadoubt took out the Winx Stakes from Avilius. Dreamforce claimed victory in the Tramway. 

Suggested bet according to history: 

Avilius comes out of the right lead up race and favourites have a good record here. He can turn the tables on Samadoubt. 


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George Main Stakes Tips - Who does history predict?

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