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Kennedy Oaks Tips - Analysing the recent trends of the VRC Oaks

  • How does history help us find the winner in the VRC Oaks at Flemington on Thursday November 7?
Jameka is a former winner of the Kennedy Oaks

The VRC Oaks (2500m) is one of the oldest races on the Australian racing calendar and brings together the best of the early season staying fillies. 

The $1 million race has been won in the past by some guns such as Jameka in 2015, Samantha Miss in 2008 and Miss Finland in 2006. The 2018 edition of the race was taken out by Aristia. 

This year, the Wakeful Stakes (2000m) quinella horses, Miami Bound and Vegas Jewel, feature prominently in early betting markets with sportsbet at $3.80 and $4 apiece, while Moonlight Maid at $4 and Gamay at $6.50 are other leading contenders. 

If we take a look at the recent history of the race, there are a few things to consider when trying to find a winner and whether to not to back the favourite or a roughie. 

In the past two years, the respective favourites have missed out. Amphitrite ran last as a $3 chance in 2018, while in 2017, the $1.80 pop, Aloisia, was upstaged by Pinot, who scored at $5.50. Aloisia, could only manage 6th. 

In 2016, there was a major blowout in the race with Lasqueti Spirit producing an astonishing win as a $101 outsider, opening up a massive lead in the middle stages of the race before eventually winning by four lengths. Yankee Rose struggled as the $1.90 favourite that day. 

However, the Oaks has generally been a good race for favourite punters with nine of the past 19 favourites taking out the race, while 16 of the 19 winners have paid $7.50 or below. 13 of the 19 have paid $5.50 or below, auguring well for the likes of Miami Bound, Moonlight Maid, Vegas Jewel and Gamay. 

Since the year 2000, the average price of the winners has been $10.60 but take Lasqueti Spirit out of the equation and that figure drops to $5.30. Outside of Lasqueti Spirit, only two other horses have won at double figure odds. 

They were Bulla Borghese in 2002 and Lovelorn in 2000. This year, Beauty Bolt is on the fifth line of betting this year at $12, while Foxborough at $21 heads the rest. 

Jameka started as a $4.50 second favourite behind Ambience when she won in 2015, while her stablemate, Set Square started at $7.50 in 2013. Two winners have started at odds on in the past 10 years and they were Faint Perfume in 2009, Samantha Miss in 2008. 

For fans of Miami Bound and Vegas Jewel, who ran the exacta in last Saturday's Wakeful Stakes (2000m), the Group 2 race that is run on Derby Day has been the ideal lead up for contenders since 2000 with 11 of the 19 winners coming out of that race

Six have completed the double, including Aristia (2018), Kirramosa (2013), Brazilian Pulse (2010) and Faint Perfume (2009). 

Moonlight Maid comes out of the Moonee Valley Vase (2040m), finishing runner-up to Soul Patch. It is rare to see the fillies in that race but Jameka in 2014 used that as a launching pad prior to her Oaks win. 

Another key lead up is the Ethereal Stakes. Gamay won that this year and will be out to follow Pinot in 2017 and Set Square in 2014 as other recent winners of the Caulfield Group 3. The Archie Alexander-trained galloper held out Vegas Jewel that day.  

Horses to have drawn in the first half of the field have tended to do better in the Oaks than those drawn outside. With the 2500m start at Flemington, horses usually jostle to find a position so they are not caught out wide on the first turn. 

Barriers 1-7 have accounted for 13 of the past 19 winners, with barrier 2 the most successful, providing four winners, while two winners have drawn 5,6 and 7.  

This year, Gamay has drawn barrier 1, while Miami Bound jumps from barrier 8. Moonlight Maid (11) and Vegas Jewel (15) will have to do it from further out. 

The most successful trainers in the race since the year 2000 have been Ciaron Maher, Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman with two winners apiece but none have a runner this year. 

Of the hoops, Damien Oliver, Hugh Bowman and Craig Williams have won the Oaks twice since 2000 and this year Oliver rides Miami Bound, while the other two do not have a ride. 

Selection based on trends

On trends it is clearly out of the top four in the betting and Miami Bound ticks enough boxes. 

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Kennedy Oaks Tips - Analysing the recent trends of the VRC Oaks

How does history help us find the winner in the VRC Oaks at Flemington on Thursday November 7?

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