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Kingsford Smith Cup Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • What are the recent trends in the Eagle Farm feature?
Impending overhauled Le Romain in the 2018 Kingsford Smith Cup (PA Images)

The Kingsford Smith Cup (1350m) is one of three Group 1 sprints for the open class horses over the course of the Brisbane winter and will be run at Eagle Farm in 2019. 

The race was formerly known as the BTC Cup (1200m) and was run prior to the Doomben 10000 (1200m), which used to be over 1350m. Previous winners include Apache Cat and Black Caviar. 

In taking a look at the history of the Queensland sprints, there are a few things to consider when aiming to pick a winner. 

For the purpose of this exercise, we have analysed the 2017 & 2018 editions of the Kingsford Smith Cup as well as the Doomben 10000 from 2000-2016 as the race is, in essence, a replacement of the middle Group 1 on the new look Brisbane racing calendar. 

The key lead up form has always been the first of the sprints, which was the BTC Cup (from 2000-2016) and now is the Doomben 10000, with that sprint the obvious lead up to the Kingsford Smith. 

Nine of the 19 winners of the Doomben 10000/Kingsford Smith have come out of the first of the Brisbane sprints. This year, it was The Bostonian from Osborne Bulls and Dollar For Dollar. 

Interestingly, only Apache Cat (2009) and Sea Siren (2012) have been able to win the BTC Cup/Doomben 10000 double since 2000.  

The average price of the winning horses of this race has been $8.90 since the year 2000. Eight favourites have saluted in that time period, including Impending in 2018, who shared favourism with Le Romain at $4.20. Those two filled the quinella. 

This year, it is a wide open betting market. In early prices with sportsbet, The Bostonian is at $7 and is just shaded by Trekking at $6.50. That horse comes off a win in the Luskin Star Stakes (1300m) at Scone. 

I Am Excited is at $9, while Ringerdingding and Outback Barbie are at $10. Victorem and Home Of The Brave are on the next line at $11, while Prompt Response heads the rest at $13. 

There has been a spread of winners from different age groups with horses aged four and five winning on five occasions apiece. Three horses aged three have been successful. Three mares have saluted. 

Encryption, Ringerdingding and Outback Barbie are the three-year-olds this year. A talking point heading into the race is the presence of Dubious, who is just two. It is rare to see youngsters tackling open class, let alone in a Group 1 and there is no record of any horses aged two that have lined up in this race in the past. 

Trekking and The Bostonian are a couple of horse aged four in the race. I Am Excited is one of three mares. 

Trainers to look out for in this year's edition of the race are James Cummings, who trained last year's winner and the Godolphin helmsman takes Trekking, Home Of The Brave and Encryption into the race. Kris Lees, Bjorn Baker, Chris Waller and Tony Gollan have been successful in the Brisbane sprints in recent years. 

Baker has Redoubale, while Waller saddles up Prompt Response and Ringerdingding. Lees trains the outsider of the field, Princess Posh. 

Finally, it may pay to look for gallopers that have drawn in. The majority of winners of the Doomben 10000 came from barriers 1 to 7. The average field size has been 14 runners and this year there are 18 that have accepted. Trekking, Redouble, Irithea, Encryption, Victorem, Ringerdingding and Prompt Response occupy the first seven slots.  

Selection based on trends

The 2019 Doomben 10000 is the place to look, based on history. Although he has drawn in a slightly tricky spot, The Bostonian does look well placed based on trends. 


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