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Manikato Stakes Tips - What does history tell us?

  • How does history help us find the winner of the Manikato Stakes?
Chautauqua is a former Manikato Stakes winner

The Manikato Stakes (1200m) is one of the premier sprinting races of the Melbourne spring and is worth $1 million in prize money. 

The Manikato is named after the five-time winner of the race (1979-1983) and always attracts a quality field of sprinters. Besides Manikato, other big names to salute in the Moonee Valley feature include Chautauqua, Lankan Rupee, Hay List and Sunline. 

In 2012 the Manikato Stakes was transferred from mid-September to Cox Plate eve in late October. Looking at the trends of the race since the year 2000, there are a few things for you to consider when trying to pick a winner. 

The Manikato has generally been a bit of a mixed one for favourite backers with eight of the past 19 winners saluting as popular elect. There have been a couple of blowouts in recent years with Rebel Dane scoring at $61 in 2016, while the 2017 winner, Hey Doc, scored at $21. The average price of the winning horses since 2000 is $10. 

Prior to the last few years, favourite backers fared much better. Chautauqua scored as a $2.50 fancy in 2015, while Lankan Rupee ($4) claimed an epic version the year before. Sepoy (2011), Hay List (2010) and Spark Of Life (2004) all scored at odds-on when they won. 

This year, the three-year-old, Bivouac, heads early markets with sportsbet at the $1.80 quote ahed of The Bostonian at $6, while Trope is $10. Another three-year-old, Loving Gaby, is at $10, while Faatinah heads the rest at $16. 

For fans of Bivouac and Loving Gaby it is worth noting that only one three-year-old has won the Manikato since 2000 and that was Sepoy in 2011. The most successful age group since 2000 has been the five-year-olds with seven winners. The Bostonian and Winter Bride are the five-year-olds this year. 

Winter Bride is one of two mares in the race. The other is Meryl. Mares have a good record in the Manikato, winning the event on seven occasions since 2000, despite being underrepresented. That pair will be out to emulate the likes of Sunline, Spinning Hill and Miss Andretti by winning the Manikato. 

For fans of Trope, who has drawn barrier 10 of 11, drawing out hasn't necessarily been an issue in this race as almost half of the 19 winners since 2000 have jumped from the outermost three barriers. Three winners have jumped from barrier 10. A further three have won after drawing barrier 1. Bivouac occupies that spot. 

Trainers with multiple winners in the last 18 years are Guy Walter and Allan Denham who saddled up Spinning Hill (2002/03) and Spark Of Life (2004/05) respectively. Of the trainers in this years race, the Hawkes' and the Snowden's are among the recent winners. Team Hawkes have Trope, while Peter and Paul Snowden saddle up Anaheim. 

Leading jockeys in the race include Craig Newitt, Kerrin McEvoy, Patrick Payne and Nash Rawiler who have all won twice since 2000. Of that quartet, McEvoy is on Bivouac. 

Finally, winners have come from a variety of lead up races due to the change of dates of the Manikato in 2012. Since then, two of the past six winners have come out of the Moir Stakes (1200m). Only Faatinah (4th) and Meryl (6th) ran in the Moir this year. 

Selections based on trends: 

This is a bit of a tricky one to assess due to the upsets that have occurred in the last couple of years. Long term, however, horses paying $10 or below have fared well, winning on 13 of the past 16 occasions. On trends, The Bostonian and Trope are the ones to consider. 

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Manikato Stakes Tips - What does history tell us?

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