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Railway Stakes Tips - Analysing the recent trends of the Group 1 Railway Stakes

  • How does history help us find the winner in the first of the Group 1 races at Perth?
Northerly is a former winner of the Australian Cup

The Railway Stakes (1600m) is one of the Western Australia's most iconic races and has been won in the past by such guns as Northerly and Old Comrade. Last year, the Railway was taken out by Great Shot

The $1 million feature carries handicap conditions and usually attracts the best local gallopers as well as a mix of interstaters chasing Group 1 glory. 

Due to the mix of gallopers from parts of Australia, as well as the handicap conditions, the race can be a tricky one for punters. We have analysed the results of the race since the year 2000 in the hope of taking some of the guesswork out for you when finding a winner. Here are some things to consider.

The average price of the winning horses since 2000 has been a very healthy $10.60. Only two favourite’s have won the race in that time period, El Presidente in 2007 and Luckygray in 2011. 

12 of the past 18 winners have started at single figure odds, while six have been at $10 or over. Last year's winner, Great Shot scored as a $31 chance. Tom Melbourne was the $5 favourite and ran 3rd. 

In 2016, Perfect Reflection went down as a $4.50 chance and the favourite in early markets with sportsbet this year is the local galloper, Galaxy Star, at $3.20 ahead of a couple of Victorian trained horses in Darren Weir's Peaceful State ($4.60) and Iconoclasm. ($9). Gatting and Action head the rest at $13   

Locally trained galloper’s have had the upper hand on their rivals from the eastern seaboard with Chris Waller's Good Project and the John Thompson-trained Gathering, the only successful interstate winners since 2000. 

Successful local trainers in the race include Grant Williams and Adam Durrant. Williams takes a three-pronged attack into this year’s edition and has Galaxy Star, Action and Perfect Jewel, while Durrant saddles up Star Exhibit. 

Galasy Star is one of nine horses that have been allocated the minimum weight of 53kg. The average weight that the winning horses have carted to victory since 2000 has been 53.5kg and Mister Sea Wolf and Peaceful State carry that weight this year. 

Material Man carries 57kg and will have to defy history by becoming just the second galloper to carry top weight to victory this millennium.  

The most successful age group in the Railway Stakes has been the four-year-olds with nine wins since 2000, including two of the last three. Horses aged five and six have won four apiece. This year, Peaceful State, Achernar Star, Action, Iconoclasm and Perfect Jewel are the four-year-olds. 

An interesting statistic is that horses drawn wide have tended not to be disadvantaged in the Railway Stakes with barrier 12 the most successful gate to jump from since 2000, accounting for five of the 17 winners. 

Nearly half of the winners since 2000 have drawn in the outer half of the field. Barrier's 4 and 6 have also been good spots to jump from, supplying two winners each. 

This year, Peaceful State has drawn barrier 4, while Mister Sea Wolf is in 6. Iconoclasm is in 12. The favourite in the race, Galaxy Star, will jump from barrier 2 and will be ridden by William Pike. The popular hoop rode Elite Belle to victory in 2014 for the Williams stable. 

Shaun O'Donnell and Paul Harvey are both two-time winners of the race since the year 2000 and will be on Disposition (O'Donnell) and Man Booker (Pike). 

Finally, the ideal lead up to the Railway Stakes has been the Lee Steere Stakes (1400m) run at Ascot a fortnight prior to the railway. Seven winners have come out of that race since 2000 and this year, the local pair, Getting and Acherner Star provided the quinella. Galaxy Star claimed the Asian Beau Stakes (1400m). Luckygray (2011) is the last winner of the Railway to come out of that lead up. 

Selections based on trends

Look for a local that has come out of the Lee Steele Stakes and is not at a short price. Getting and Achernar Star provided the quinella in that race and of that pair, Achrenar Star is a four-year-old. He shapes as the one on trends. 

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Railway Stakes Tips - Analysing the recent trends of the Group 1 Railway Stakes

How does history help us find the winner in the first of the Group 1 races at Perth?

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