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Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Tips - How history point us towards the winner?

  • How does history help us find the winner of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes?
Santa Ana Lane won the 2017 Rupert Clarke Stakes

The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) is a Group 1 race run over the Handicap conditions at Caulfield racecourse and is worth $500,000 in prize money. 

The race generally attracts a capacity field and has been won in the past by the likes of Rebel Dane (2013), Exceed And Excel (2003) and Testa Rossa (2000). 

Looking at the history of the Rupert Clarke since the year 2000, there are a few things to consider when selecting a winner. 

Big fields have generally been the order of the day with an average size of 16 runners and this, combined with the handicap conditions of the race, meant that it has been a mixed one for punters. The average price of the winning horses since 2000 is $8.30 

Four horses have scored at odds of above $10 including the last two in Jungle Cat at $13 and Santa Ana Lane, who scored as a $26 chance in 2017. Turffontein  ($14 in 2009), and Mr Murphy ($11 in 2001) are others that caused minor upsets. 

A total of five favourites have won in the time period since 2000 including three of the past seven in Trust In A Gust, Rebel Dane and Moment Of Change. Bon Aurum won as a $4.50 pop in 2016, defeating the $3 chance, Counterattack. 

In early markets with sportsbet this year it is Begood Toya Mother that has been installed as a $3.50 favourite ahead of So Si Bon and Amphritite, who are both at $7.50. Age Of Chivalry is at $9.50, while Despatch heads the rest of the field of 15 at $11. 

Best Of Days carries top weight of 58kg this year and only two 'toppie's have won the event since 2000. Jungle Cat carried 58kg to victory in 2018, joining Testa Rossa, who scored in the year 2000. Dissident went close in 2014 when carrying 58kg but was pipped by Trust In A Gust, who won with 52kg. 

The average weight of the winning horses has been 54kg. This year, Amphitrite carries that weight, while Deprive, Fastnet Tempest and Streets Of Avalon have 54.5kg. 

The Rupert Clarke has been dominated by horses aged four, with 11 of the last 19 winners coming from that age bracket including seven of the last nine. The four-year-olds this year are Madison County, Amphitrite and Age Of Chivalry. 

Winners have been able to come from a variety of positions with 10 having come from barrier 9 or wider. The most successful spot to jump from in the period since the year 2000 has been barrier's 5 and 15 with four winners apiece

Stratum Star, Moment Of Change, Orange County (2008) and Pernod (2002) all won from 15. Jungle Cat won from barrier 5 last year. Black Heart Bart has drawn barrier 5 this year, while Fastnet Tempest jumps from 15. Best Of Days and Deprive are others that have drawn wide. 

In recent years, one of the key lead ups to the Rupert Clarke has been the Bobbie Lewis (1200m) at Flemington with four of the past 12 winners to come out of the straight track race. The outsider, Streets Of Avalon, was unplaced in that race this year. 

With the slight tinkering of some of the spring race dates it may be worth looking at the form of lead-ups such as the Memsie Stakes (1400m), Lets Elope Stakes (1400m) and the Chandler McLeod Stakes (1200m). 

So Is Bon was runner-up in the Memsie this year, while Begood Toya Mother was 6th. Deprive was runner-up in the Chandler Macleod. 

The most successful jockeys since 2000 have been Craig Williams with a very healthy five winners, while Damien Oliver and Glen Boss have both won two apiece. Williams is on Amphitrite this year, while Oliver and Boss aren't in action. 

Interestingly, Darren Weir is the only trainer with multiple winners in the race since the year 2000 and has provided two of the past five winners. The disgraced Weir is no longer in the training ranks. Amphitrite and Cliff's Edge are among the gallopers that were formerly with the stable.

Selection according to trends

On recent trends, Amphitrite ticks a stack of boxes. 

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Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Tips - How history point us towards the winner?

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