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Spring Champion Stakes Tips - How history helps us find the winner

  • How does history help us find the winner of the Spring Champion Stakes?
Monaco Consul is a former winner of the Spring Champion Stakes

The Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) is the final Group 1 race for the spring in Sydney and is worth $1,000,000. 

The Randwick feature has been won by some quality gallopers over the years, including It's A Dundeel (2012), Savabeel (2004), Tie The Knot (1997) and Nothin Leica Dane (1995). 

The mighty Kingston Town (1979) is another big name to grace the honour roll, while last year's winner, Maid Of Heaven, joined the 2016 winner, Yankee Rose, as a filly to win the event. 

When it comes to picking a winner in the Spring Champion Stakes, there are a number of historical trends to take into account. 

The Gloaming Stakes (1800m) has always been the ideal lead up to the race and has provided six of the past nine winners. Shadow Hero claimed that lead up this year from Subedar and Quick Thinker. Just Thinkin' ran 4th. All of that quartet are in action on Saturday except Subedar. 

Shadow Hero has been installed as the $1.60 favourite in early markets for the Spring Champion after his his dominant three length win. Castlevecchio, who comes off a 7th in the Golden Rose (1400m) is at $4.50, while Quick Thinker is at $6 and Just Thinkin' is at $8.50. 

Rhaeger was 7th in the Gloaming and is at $46. He heads a host of outsiders in the field of 11. For fans of the likes of Sciconic, who is a last start Maiden winner, all winners of the Spring Champion since 2000 have had their most recent starts in a Group or Listed race. 

Since the year 2000, every winner has finished in the top three at its previous start, except for Maid Of Heaven, who was 6th in the Flight Stakes (1600m) last year.  Yankee Rose finished 2nd in the Flight Stakes in 2016 before winning the Spring Champion. However, she was later disqualified from the Flight Stakes due to a positive swab. 

Shadow Hero will be out to join Ace High, Yankee Rose and the 2015 winner, Vanbrugh, as recent favourites to score in the Spring Champion. However, the race has been a mixed one for the popular elects over the years. 

Vanbrugh ended an 11 year losing streak for horses that started as favourite. Thinkin' Big missed out as a $3.40 chance last year. There have also been a couple of blowout results with Monaco Consul (2009) and Teranaba (2007) starting at $51. 

Shadow Hero is trained by Mark Newnham, who claimed victory in the race last year with Maid Of Heaven. Just Thinkin' is trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Waterhouse has trained two winners of this race since 2000 with those being Platinum Scissors (2002) and Hampton Court. 

Of the jockeys in this year's Spring Champion, Rachel King won the race last year and will be on one of the outsiders in Battenburg. Josh Parr rides Shadow Hero and partnered Hampton Court to victory in 2014. 

Finally, it is interesting to note that gallopers have been able to win from a wide range of barriers and that it may even be an advantage to draw out. 13 of the 18 winners since the year 2000 have drawn in the second half of the field. 

Of the favoured runners this year, Shadow Hero has drawn barrier 2, Castlevecchio is in barrier 7, while Just Thinkin and Quick Thinker are in barriers 10 and 4 respectively. 

Selection according to trends

The Gloaming form has been a strong reference for this in recent years and there is no reason to suggest why Shadow Hero can't do the job for favourite backers. 

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Spring Champion Stakes Tips - How history helps us find the winner

How does history help us find the winner of the Spring Champion Stakes?

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