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The Everest Tips - How can history help find the winner?

  • What does the brief history of the worlds richest race on turf suggest will happen at Randwick? 
  • Find out here.
Redzel won the Everest in 2018 (PA Images)

In three short years, the aptly named horserace, The Everest (1200m), has reached some dazzling heights and now ranks as one of Australia's biggest events on the racing calendar. 

An initiative from racing NSW, the $14 million affair was first conducted in 2017 and brings together the best sprinting thoroughbreds, who have gained 'slots' into the race. 

Both edition's have been taken out by Redzel, who has represented the Triple Crown Racing Syndicate. The seven-year-old is trained by Peter and Paul Snowden and has been ridden by jockey Kerrin McEvoy in his two Everest wins. 

The gelding will be going for his third victory from three attempts this year and has been installed as an $11 chance with sportsbet. Remarkably, he has scored at similar odds in the Everest and was backed in from that quote into $8.50 in 2018. 

Using the brief history of the Everest as a guide, we have assessed the winning chances of not only Redzel but all of the other contenders in this year's field in our bid to find you a winner. Based on the trends of the past two years, it has revealed the following. 

Favourites have had a mixed time of it thus far in the Everest. In 2017, Vega Magic stepped out as a $4.80 leading contender and was an unlucky runner-up behind Redzel, while Shoals could only manage 11th last year as a $5 pop. 

Chautauqua (4th) and She Will Reign (10th) also missed out as single figure fancies in 2017 as did Le Romain (4th), Graff (5th) and Santa Ana Lane (6th) last year. 

Despite missing out in 2018, Santa Ana Lane heads the early market with sportsbet  as favourite at the $4.80 quote ahead of Arcadia Queen at $5 and Pierata at $6.50. Yes Yes Yes is another in single figures at $8.50, while Redzel is $11. Sunlight is a $16 chance, while Classique Legend is $17. Alizee at $18 heads the rest. 

Pierata has drawn barrier 1 this year, the same spot that Redzel jumped from last year. In 2017, the two time winner started from gate 4. He is in barrier 7 this year. The placegetters in previous years have come from a variety of gates. 

This year, Nature Strip is tipped to inject some speed into the race as he has drawn barrier 12 and is likely to scorch over before setting a solid tempo. 

Looking at the lead up form from the past two years, Redzel tackled the Premiere Stakes (1100m) in 2018 as his final lead up run and finished 5th in that event, while in 2017 he claimed The Shorts (1100m). 

This year, The Shorts was taken out by Pierata from Classique Legend and Redzel. Santa Ana Lane missed out in the Gilgai Stakes (1200m) at Flemington behind Sunlight. 

Interestingly, outside of Redzel, three of the previous four placegetters had their previous starts in Melbourne. They were Vega Magic and Brave Smash in 2017, as well as Osborne Bulls last year. 

Outside of the Snowdens and Kerrin McEvoy, all of the trainers and jockeys will be looking for their first Everest win. James Cummings trains the 3rd placegetter from 2018, Osborne Bulls, and has Trekking and Alizee this year. 

Tommy Berry launched his run right down the grandstand side on Osborne Bulls in last year's Everest and he will be aboard Pierata this year. 

This years race features four mares and one three-year-old. The mares are yet to place in an Everest. English ran 6th in 2017. Yes Yes Yes is the sole three-year-old this year. Graff ran 5th last year at that age. 

Selection based on trends

It is pretty hard to go past Redzel based on the small sample size! However, Pierata has the right lead up form and might pip the two time winner this year.

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The Everest Tips - How can history help find the winner?

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