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The Goodwood Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • What are the recent trends in the Group 1 Morphettville sprint?
Santa Ana Lane won the 2018 Goodwood (PA Images)

The Goodwood (1200m) is the premier horse race in Adelaide and has a rich history that stretches back to 1881. 

The $1 million Group 1 was formerly known as the Goodwood Handicap until the conditions of the race were changed in 2007 from a handicap to set weights and penalties. 

Since then, it has been known as The Goodwood and it has been taken out by the likes of Takeover Target in 2009 and Black Caviar in 2012, while the most recent winner was Santa Ana Lane.  

In looking at the recent trends of the Goodwood, there are a few things to keep in mind when attempting to pick the winner of the Morphettville sprint race.  

Despite the dominance of Black Caviar, who scored as a $1.05 favourite, and Takeover Target ($1.40), the race has generally been a graveyard for favoured horses. Since the year 2000, the average price of the winning horses has been $14. 

Santa Ana Lane won as a $26 chance last year. Vega Magic won at $4.50 in 2017 and Black Heart Bart won as favourite at $2.80 in 2016. That snapped a bit of a mini hoodoo for the popular elects after Flamberge, scored at the odds of $21 in 2015 and Smokin Joey at $41 in 2014. 

In early markets with ladbrokes this year, the last start Sangster Stakes (1200m) winner, Spright, is a $3.60 favourite, while Cool Passion ($6), Iconoclasm ($7.50), Booker ($9), Valour Road ($9.50) and Jamaican Rain ($9.50) are others under double figures. 

The Goodwood has usually attracted a very large field and the average size has been 17 runners. Only nine lined up in 2012 when most connections of a number of potential rivals would have been aiming to avoid the mighty Black Caviar. 

The large fields have generally ensured a solidly run race and as such, horses from a variety of positions have been able to win. Despite the short distance of the race, a good barrier has tended to play no real decisive advantage in the outcome. 

In terms of lead up form, seven winners since 2000 have had their final runs at Morphettville, with three of those in the Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m). Five have come out of various races in Sydney, while five had their last starts in Melbourne, including two out of the Victoria Handicap (1400m). 

Vega Magic was first up after racing in Perth prior to his win in 2017. Santa Ana Lane and Bomber Bill (2003) came out of the McKay Stakes at Morphettville. 

Behind Spright in the Sangster this year was Cool Passion, who finished runner-up. Valour Road comes out of the Euclase Stakes (1200m) as does Gytrash (3rd). Despatch won the McKay Stakes (1100m). Those three races were at Morphettville. 

Booker has not raced since finishing 9th to Sunlight in the Newmarket (1200m). Iconoclasm comes out of the VOBIS Gold Sprint (1200m) that was run at Caulfield, while I Am Someone starred at the Warrnambool carnival by winning the Wangoom Handicap (1200m).  

In terms of the ages of previous winning horses, a spread of age groups have been represented with the three and four-year-olds winning on four occasions each, while five horses aged five have won since 2000. Takeover Target won at the age of nine in 2009. 

The three-year-olds this year are Gytrash and Behemoth. Spright is a five-year-old, as are Hard Empire, Inn Keeper and Zalmona. Iconoclasm and I Am Someone are among those that are four. 

Since the year 2000, five mares (including Lone Rock, who was a filly at the time) have won the Goodwood. This year, members of the fairer sex include Booker, Spright, Cool Passion and Jamaican Rain, 

Successful trainers in the Goodwood include Darren Weir, Mick Price, Peter Moody and Robert Smerdon. That quartet have all won the race on two occasions since 2000. None are in action in 2019. 

Booker, Iconoclasm, I Am Someone, Inn Keeper and Jamaican Rain are among those trained in Victoria. Victorian trainers have dominated the race in recent times, winning it for the last eight years. 

Ben Melham and Steven King are two jockeys that have won the race more than once since 2000. Melham rode Santa Ana Lane last year as well as Smokin' Joey in 2014 and Platelet in 2013 but is without a ride this year. 

Selections according to trends

This is a tough one to assess on trends. However, Victorian trained horses have the edge in recent times. Iconoclasm ticks enough boxes. 


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