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Thousand Guineas Tips - Who does history point towards winning?

  • How does history help us find the winner of the Thousand Guineas?
Aloisia won the Thousand Guineas in 2016

The Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) is the female equivalent of the Caulfield Guineas (1600m) and will be raced on a Saturday for the sixth consecutive year, having previously been the headline act of the Wednesday during the Caulfield Cup Carnival.  

Despite carrying less prizemoney than the Caulfield Guineas the race has been won by some champions of the turf including Atlantic Jewel (2011), Miss Finland (2006) and Alinghi (2004). Last year, the Guineas was taken out by Amphitrite. 

If we look at the results since the year 2000 as a guide, the Thousand Guineas has been a bit of a mixed one for favourite backers. The last two favourites have both gone down as $2.15 fancies. 

Last year it was Melody Belle that was upstaged by Amphitrite at $13 and in 2018, Alizee went down to Aloisia, who also scored at $13. Guelph (2013) was the last popular elect to score. 

Since 2000, seven horses have won as favourite. Atlantic Jewel (2012, Miss Finland (2006) and Alinghi (2004) are among those. 

This year the popular elect is the Godolphin galloper, Flit, who has been posted as a $2 favourite with sportsbet after the barrier draw. Lyre and Missile Mantra are at $7, while Acting ($11) and Emeralds ($13) are others in contention.  

The Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1400m) has been a great form reference for the Thousand Guineas and has accounted for almost half of the winners since 2000. Last year, Amphitrite ran the double. 

However, since the change of dates of the Thousand Guineas in 2013, no other winner has had their previous start in the Manifold. Two have come out of the Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m) and two have come out of the Flight Stakes (1600m) in Sydney. 

This year, Acting claimed the Thousand Guineas Prelude ahead of Southbank and Barbie's Fox. Flit had no luck whatsoever when running 9th. Lyre was 7th in that lead up. 

No horses are backing up after last week's Manifold Stakes or Flight Stakes. Emeralds ran 4th in the Tea Rose Stakes (1400m) in Sydney at her last start. Four Sydney gallopers have won the Thousand Guineas since 2000. 

Winners of this race have been able to come from a wide range of barriers since the year 2000. The most successful to jump from in that time period has been barrier 8, providing three winners, while two have jumped from 4 and 5. 

This year, Emeralds has drawn barrier 8, while Southbank and I Am Eloquent are in 4 and 5. Flit has drawn ideally in barrier 3. 

The most successful trainer since 2000 has been David Hayes with three winners, while Lee Freedman has also saddled up two winners. Hayes claimed the race in 2015 with Stay With Me but has no runners this year. Freedman's brother, Anthony, has Lyre and Southbank. 

The leading jockey since 2000 has been Damien Oliver with four wins and this year 'Ollie' rides Barbie's Fox. Craig Williams rode Amphitrite to victory last year and is on Acting. Hugh Bowman has had success in this race and he rides the favourite, Flit. 

Selections based on trends:

Be wary of backing favourites in this race. This year's Thousand Guineas Prelude is the form to look at and Southbank can go one better at a nice price. 

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Thousand Guineas Tips - Who does history point towards winning?

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