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Winterbottom Stakes Tips - analysing the recent trends of the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes

  • Who do the recent trends point to winning the Winterbottom Stakes?
Joe Bowditch riding Viddora

The Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) is the premier sprint race in Western Australia and is always one of the major highlights of the Perth Carnival. 

The $1 million affair has been won in the past by star performers such as Takeover Target in 2008 and Miss Andretti in 2005, while recent winners include the recently retired Buffering (2013 and 2015). Viddora scored in 2017 and will be going for back to back wins in the race.

When picking a winner for the Group 1 there are a few things to consider. If we take a look back at the trends of the race since the year 2000, it has been a very good for favoured gallopers with nine of the past 18 winners scoring as the popular elect, while a further seven have scored in single figure odds. 

Only Hadabeclorka ($41 in 2010) and Belmont Park ($16 in 2003) have scored anything near major upsets. The average price of the winners since 2000 is $7.50.

Viddora scored as a $5 second favourite behind Rock Magic last year. In 2013, Buffering landed as a $2 chance, while in 2015 he won at the odds of $2.50. In 2016, Takedown won at the odds of $9, with Terravista missing out as a $3.50 chance. 

Early markets with sportsbet this year see Viddora at $2.80 to make it back to back wins, while Enticing Star is at $7. Malaguerra ($8) and Voodoo Lad ($9) are others under double figure odds. 

The Winterbottom sees many gallopers heading out west from the eastern states and since 2000 it is an even split with nine locals, as well as nine non-Perth trained runners, winning the event in that time period. Only seven of the past 18 winners came into the Winterbottom after winning their previous start. 

The 2014 winner, Magnifisio is the most recent local to score, while others include Marasco (2006) and Hardrada (2002/2003). Miss Andretti scored as a 'local' in 2005 before she was subsequently sent to the Lee Freedman stable in Victoria. 

11 of the past 18 winners have had their final lead up run in Perth, however, five of the past seven winners had their last start at Melbourne, with four of those coming out of Flemington. Last year, Viddora was coming off a 4th placing in the Manikato Stakes (1200m). 

This year, she ran 10th in the Everest (1200m) at Randwick. Voodoo Lad (8th) and Malaguerra (12th) come out of the Manikato this time around, while Ashlor, Malibu Style, Runson and I'll Have A Bit all come off Melbourne runs. Runson ran 3rd to Osborne Bulls in the Linlithgow Stakes (1200m) on Derby Day. 

The key Perth hope, Enticing Star, drops back in trip after only managing 6th in the Lee Steere Stakes (1400m). He will be ridden by the man of the moment in Willy Pike, who has won this race twice, however, his most recent was back in 2010. 

A number of other key contenders had their final run in the Colonel Reeves (1100m) at Ascot on November 17 and they are Durendel (1st), Belter (2nd), Dainty Tess (4th) and Profit Street (6th)

At the barrier draw, a couple of the interstate gallopers drew poorly, namely Voodoo Lad (14) and Runson (15). However, winners have been able to salute from a variety of spots in the Winterbottom over the years. 

Five of the past six have won despite drawing in the second half of the field. Two winners have drawn 13 since 2000, two have drawn barrier 5, while barrier 8 has provided five winners, including three of the past five. 

The most successful age group in the Winterbottom Stakes has been the four and five-year-olds, accounting for 12 of the 18 winners since 2000. Mares also tend to have a good record, having won five times since 2000. 

Horses aged four this year are I'll Have A Bit and Seannie while Ashlor, Belter, Dainty Tess and Enticing Starare five. Viddora, Dainty Tess, I'll Have A Bit, Enticing Star and Seannie are the mares. 

Selection based on trends

Viddora Lad looks to be the play and can go back to back. Runson is one to consider at each-way odds. 



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Winterbottom Stakes Tips - analysing the recent trends of the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes

The Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) is the premier sprint race in Western Australia and is always one of the major highlights of the Perth Carnival.

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