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Caulfield Tips August 17- Saturday best bets for Caulfield

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 15 Aug 2019
  • 3 to 4 best bets for each Caulfield meeting.
  • Previous results included
Caulfileld racing action

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Caulfield? 

Our form analyst gives you their expert racing tips for Victorian racing each weekend including Caulfield - the home of the Caulfield Cup.

See our free Caulfield tips below:

Caulfield Tips - August 17

Race 1 - 12:15pm MRC Foundation Supports Legacy Handicap (1100m)
I priced GODODDIN and Pippie as almost equal favourites, so I’m clearly with the James Cummings-trained Gododdin at the price. She won over 1200m here at Caulfield two starts before running a terrific fourth at Flemington behind Sylvia’s Mother in what was, a very high rating race. The race rated 15.1 lengths above the overall benchmark and 5.1 lengths above the class benchmark and the form has already been stacking up, with the second-placed My Pendent and the third-placed Ruban Bleu both winning at Flemington last Saturday. The only small query is the month between runs and 1200m back to 1100m but the positives far outweigh the negatives for mine. He goes from D.Dunn to D.Lane, who is the best jockey in Melbourne since returning from Japan and has the perfect map, able to sit just off a predicted fast tempo, set-up by Tony Nicconi, Pippie, Definia and I Am Queen. I can understand why Pippie is favourite but I couldn’t get her anywhere near $2.30. She started favourite against Sunlight at this meeting last year, was spelled for 326-days and bobbed up in Doomben, being backed from $2.60 into $1.50 and bolting in. The race didn’t rate that well vs the day and she will need to improve significantly second-up to be winning.  

Race 3 - 1:25pm Nitto Denko Handicap (1600m)
This is an odd race, with plenty of internationals who are first-up. Liam Howley has three runners, who haven’t raced for 700 days, 343 days and 298 days respectively. Waller has two imports who are first-up and Duretto hasn’t raced since running in the Caulfield Cup last year. Looking at the five remaining runners, New Universe is now eighth-up, had his birthday winning last start at The Valley and gets barrier one. Guizot has had 15 runs this preparation, Sylpheed hasn’t won since winning at Doomben in 2017 and Beau Balmain has had a 40-day freshen-up and drops back from 2600m to 1600m. This leaves us with literally one horse, SNITZEPEG. She was huge last start at Caulfield behind Tshahitsi and did all she could do from being back and off the bit at the 600m. Tshahitsi ran them along in front and that didn’t suit Snitzepeg, who was at least one or two runs off peak fitness. Once he got balanced in the straight, I loved the way he hit the line, running 11.2 lengths above benchmark for his last 600m, with an overall figure of 8.5 lengths above benchmark which rated well vs the day. He ran the fastest last 200m of the meeting, the third-fastest last 400m and second-fastest last 600m of the meeting. The step-up to 1600m fourth-up should suit and this looks his right race.

Race 4 - 2:00pm Blue Star Print Handicap (1400m)
The Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained AGE OF CHIVALRY has been $2.80 into $2.30 since markets opened on Wednesday and that is no surprise, as this race looks perfect for him. His first-up run at The Valley a fortnight ago was outstanding, he wasn’t anywhere near screwed down from a mounting yard perspective and he will take significant improvement from the run. I was very impressed with his run, as he was held-up between the 400m-150m and even when it looked like he was clear late, he was still racing in restricted room over the final 100m and jockey Damian Lane never fully went for him. Despite this, he only finished a length from the winner Usain Bowler, while running the fastest last 200m of the race and the 14th-fastest last 200m of a meeting that included three 1000m races. Damian Lane should be able to do as he pleases here from barrier seven. There looks to be plenty of speed on paper, with the likes of Silent Roar, Angelic Spirit and Smart Elissim likely to come across from wide barriers, whilst Sam’s Image, Shot Of Irish and Rox The Castle all may want to hold positions from inside barriers, Age Of Chivalry can settle right behind that speed battle and get every possible chance.

Previous Tips:

July 27

Race 1 - 11:55am Steph Hunter VOBIS Gold Ingot (1400m)
The Danny O’Brien-trained Can’t Be Done is clearly the horse to beat but I thought the John Sadler-trained SCORE represented the value in the race. I thought she battled on well two starts ago at Sandown behind Maozi and Hafaawa. She then dropped back from 1200m to 1000m at Cranbourne last start and I change of tactics saw her settle second-last on a day where it was advantageous to be up near the lead. She really savaged the line to run fourth behind a smart horse in Paris. The race rated clearly the best of the day as a maiden, which is rare and Score ran 5.6 lengths above the maiden benchmark, whilst also running the second-fastest last 200m, 400m and 600m of the meeting. I don’t usually like horses jumping from 1000m to 1400m but she has had that 1200m run and is fourth-up and should be nearing peak fitness. As mentioned, Can’t Be Done is the horse to beat but is now fifth-up in his first preparation and has had some tough runs in that time and might just be coming to the end of his prep. The other horse to watch is Forever Loud, who started $151 when Can’t Be Done started $3.50 last start. He was luckless and when he got out, flew home to run the sixth-fastest last 200m, 13th-fastest last 400m and 31th-fastest last 600m of a meeting that included in the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes.
Result (unplaced)

Race 6 - 3:00pm Jenna Ross VOBIS Gold Reef (1600m)
The Clinton McDonald-trained BENITOITE has serious ability and with even luck from barrier one, should be going very close. She showed an outstanding turn of foot to beat Pinyin two starts ago at Sandown, that horse started a $5.00 second favourite behind Sylvia’s Mother last Saturday. She went from Damien Oliver to Michael Walker last start, was $10 out to $14 and finished seventh, suggesting to me It was just a run to keep her ticking along for this race. She made good ground on the inside of runners in straight,  running the ninth-fastest 600m-400m split of the race, sixth-fastest 400m-200m split and the fastest last 200m of the race. She was untested over the last 100m, as Michael Walker thought she was amiss, as reported in the Stewards Report. Despite not riding her out, she ran the 16th-fastest last 200m of the meeting and the 27th-fastest last 400m of the meeting. She gets Damien Oliver back on here and although I don’t love the map from barrier one, she has the right jockey on board and the fence has been no disadvantage at Caulfield in recent meetings.
Result (1st - $4.40)

Race 9 - 4:55pm Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap (1400m)
I love this map and race shape for the Tasmanian visitor TSHAHITSI. He was first-up for 490 days in the All Victorian Sprint (1200m) at Flemington and the market said he couldn’t win, drifting from $21 to $51 at the jump. He led and battled on well behind the handy sprinters, crossing the line with Sirius Suspect who bolted in a handy sprint race at Flemington last Saturday. I love the jockey change here, with regular rider B Mc Coull going off and 3kg claimer Teodore Nugent going on. Teo suits this horse down to the ground and will be positive on him early and with no other real speed in the race, he should get an uncontested lead. My only concern is the first-up run flattened him off a long spell and I may be going a run too early but at $4.60 I’m happy enough to find out. Two horses I blackbooked from the Sir John Monash meeting here a fortnight ago can both run well. I Thought So started $7.50 against Sesar earlier this preparation and he didn’t have much luck in the SIr John Monash Stakes (1100m), running the fastest last 400m, 600m and 800m of the meeting in a race that didn’t suit him. Micheal Walker on from barrier one is scary behaviour and the reason I didn’t make him a bet. The Matthew Cumani-trained Sylpheed was first-up since running in the Adelaide Cup, she was left flat footed when they sprinted, which was to be expected. She then really savaged the line, running clearly the fastest last 200m of the race to only be beaten 0.6 lengths by a handy bunch of sprinters and 1400m will suit here.
Result (1st - $5)

July 13

Race 6 - 2:10pm Ladbrokes $101 Odds Handicap (2000m)
The price is gone but I have to tip the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained JUNIPAL. Bookies went up $5.00 and that was simply the wrong price, when doing the form on Wednesday afternoon he was still hovering around $3.80-$4.00 but has been smashed all the way into $2.40. He was outstanding first-up at Flemington behind a smart horse in Big Night Out, he then went and contested a G2 race in Queensland, he didn’t have much luck and still finished fifth behind the likes of Kolding, Baccarat Baby, Pohutukawa and Seabrook. He was terrific again last start, running second in the G3 Sunshine Coast Guineas (1600m) despite having no luck yet again. He weaved through the pack and was savaging the line late but Baccarat Baby had a margin. That 1600m run on a Heavy 10 will condition him nicely to step-up to 2000m fourth-up and there doesn’t look much opposition in this race. Tavirun got his win last start, controlling and beating up on a weak bunch of horses and I’m putting the pen through that 2000m leadup. Aristocratic Miss probably doesn’t run 2000m, despite winning over 2100m last start at Sandown. Dwayne Dunn led on her and went 32 lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m. This looks Junipal’s race to lose.
Result (3rd)

Race 7 - 2:50pm Ladbrokes Back Yourself Handicap (1200m)
The Daniel Bowman-trained GOLDEN HALO looks a nice bet at around $6.50 in early markets. The ex-Weir galloper didn’t really perform with Maher & Eustace but looks to have returned a better horse now in the Daniel Bowman stable at Warrnambool. First-up for Bowman, she ran a cracking fifth in the G2 Euclase Stakes (1100m) behind Valour Road, Tofane and Gytrash. She then pulled up lame in the G3 Proud Miss Stakes but bounced back with an easy kill at Swan Hill. She contested the Listed A.R. Creswick Stakes (1200m) down the straight at Flemington last start and her second behind Gytrash put the writing on the wall that she is ready to win here. She ran 5.1 lengths above benchmark to the 600m, then ran the fastest last 600m of the race, running 5.7 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m for an overall figure of 10.8 lengths above benchmark, which is clearly the best last-start performance of any runner in the race and It’s also the best personal best figure of any horse in the race. From barrier 12, Yendall will likely take her back near the tail of the field but that shouldn’t pose too many issues with speed from News Girl, Tell Me, Gododdin and Street Icon likely to give horses back in the field their chance. 
Result (4th)

June 29

Race 2 - 12:20pm Ladbrokes Multiverse Hcp (1600m)
I’m keen to forgive the Lindsay Park-trained FIVE KINGDOM after he was a beaten favourite at Flemington last Saturday. He looked disappointing on face value but looking at the replay and the data, his run was nearly the run of the day in my opinion. It was a terrible ride from Lewis German and the jockey change from German to Lachie King, who has won on the horse in the past is a very positive one. The horse began well and was snicked back to near last before overracing badly and expending too much energy for the position he was in. The leader went 3.9 lengths slower than the class benchmark to the 600m and Five Kingdom was never a winning chance from back near last. He ran the second-fastest 600m-400m split of the race before hitting a flat spot and running the fifth-fastest 400m-200m, he then really picked up late  running the fastest last 200m of the race and the 19th-fastest last 200m of the meeting. I wrote in my review of the meeting that Five Kingdom could improve ten-lengths if ridden properly next start and I think King has every opportunity to do so from barrier 10 with not much speed on paper. Pria Eclipse will likely kick up and lead from barrier four but the position outside the leader looks up for grabs and if King slides forward from that barrier, he is clearly the horse to beat and $4.00 is a terrific price.
Result (4th)

Race 3 - 12:55pm Long Fine Plate (1400m)
The more I look into this race, the more I struggle to see how they beat the Leon & Troy Corstons-trained MORRISY. The difference in his parade from his victory at Caulfield three starts ago to his last start victory at Sandown was astounding. He sweated up awfully at Caulfield, raced four-wide on the speed and still bolted in, beating Poised To Strike Mumbles. He was a different horse at Sandown, parading perfectly. He was given a great ride from Craig Williams and the result was never in doubt, winning by 1.3 lengths and recording a new career personal best figure of 12.1 lengths above benchmark, it was the third-best figure of the meeting, less than a half-length behind the older sprinters Jungle Edge and Malibu Style. Craig Williams sticks here and he maps to get a very similar run to last start from barrier one, sitting just behind the speed that should be set up by Robe De Fete. His rivals don’t look as well suited as him here. Fabric got the perfect run last start at Flemington last start, she is a month between runs and goes C.Williams to M.Poy and cops barrier 10. Persuader is Persuader and Really Swish, who hasn’t been suited at her last two starts will be giving Morrisy a big start at the top of the straight. 
Result (scratched)

May 11

Race 2 - 12:30pm Ladbrokes Back Yourself Handicap (1100m)
I’m very keen on the John Price-trained WILLIAM THOMAS. Looking at him first-up in the mounting yard at Caulfield, he was always going to take improvement from that run and I’m actually surprised he got as close as he did to Propelle. He came into the race with no trials or jumpouts and showed outstanding closing speed in a race that rated extremely highly vs the day. He ran the second-fastest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m of the meeting, running 12.3 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m. He can sit three-wide with cover for M.Dee from barrier 12 and swoop home over the top of his rivals. The danger does look to be Delvecchio. I thought it was a weird first-up run at Sandown until I looked at the Stewards vision. The fourth, fifth and sixth-placed horses all go past him at the 200m and he kicks back for third. Looking at the head on vision, D.Dunn was only riding hands and heels until the last 100m when the race is all but over. He ran the 10th-fastest 600m-400m of the race, seventh-fastest 400m-200m and fastest last 200m. He will improve off that the winner has won at Sandown again since. 
Result (1st - $3.60)

Race 7 - 3:40pm Le Pine Funerals Handicap (1100m)
As mentioned in my race two preview, that Propelle and William Thomas race rated extremely highly and I’m keen to follow both horses. The Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained PROPELLE went to a new level last start, she ran a Group standard figure, running two-lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m and coming home 15.6 lengths above benchmark for the last 600m to record an overall figure of 13.6 lengths above benchmark, running the fastest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m of the meeting at Caulfield. I thought the danger at a price was Lady Vega on the seven-day back-up. She opened $16 against the likes of Poised To Strike and started upwards of 40/1 on betfair late. She went back to the inside down the straight, as all the horses in the finish were making their runs on the outside. She ran the fastest 600m-400m of the race, the third-fastest 400m-200m and loomed like she was going to run a big race but just peaked late, running the sixth fastest last 200m.
Result (2nd)

Race 9 - 4:52pm JRA Handicap (1800m)
I thought the Chris Waller-trained BIRTH OF VENUS was a moral beaten last start and we found the horse at $16 off a hidden gem run two starts prior. He sat back last off a tempo that was 14.9 lengths above benchmark to the 600m but it’s the sectional data that tells the full story. The leaders went very quick early, 1800m-1600m (11.20s), 1600m-1400m (11.34s) then they started to slow up, 1400m-1200m (11.89s), 1200m-1000m (12.53s) and 1000m-800m (12.43s). This is when Oliver gets moving on the winner Grinzinger Star, he blends into the race and expends no energy in the process, going from four-lengths off the leader at the 800m to 2.7 lengths off the leader at the 400m. Michael Walker shows on intent to get on the back of the favourite and only goes from 6.4 lengths off the leader at the 800m to 6.1 lengths off the leader at the 400m. Grinzinger Star runs the fourth-fastest 800m-600m and fastest 600m-400m of the race. Birth Of Venus runs only the fifth-fastest 800m-600m and the seventh-fastest 600m-400m of the race. Birth Of Venus then savages the line, running the fastest last 200m and 400m of the race and 100m past the post, is alongside Grinzinger Star. Grinzinger Star started a solid $2.30 favourite in a good race at Flemington last Saturday and those formlines are strong. M.Dee on from barrier four, I’m happy to take the current $5.00 on offer. 
Result (unplaced)

April 27

Race 1 - 12:05pm Keno Classic Handicap (1000m)
The opening race on the program at Caulfield looks a two horse affair between William Thomas and the Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained PROPELLE. With race fitness on her side, I’m keen on the latter. I thought she was good first-up at Ballarat, just being nosed out by Ben Hercules on the line. The leader went 10.7 lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m and she just didn’t have the explosive turn of foot first-up. She went to Caulfield at her last start and was given a very tough run, being three-wide no cover throughout and I thought her effort to sick on for third behind Columbus Circle and Leiter was outstanding. Despite the tough run, she ran 9.3 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m for an overall figure of 7.9 lengths above benchmark. That is the best last start figure in the race and should take her a long way here. The John Price-trained William Thomas is the clear danger. The Nicconi gelding has plenty of talent but has been off the scene for 328 days and I couldn’t find any public trials or jumpouts for him. 
Result: (Won - $3.30)

Race 2 - 12:40pm Keno Fun Money Handicap (1400m)
On a tricky meeting with plenty of short priced favourites, my best bet of the program is the Scott Brunton-trained MANDELA EFFECT. I loved the style of his last start victory at Bendigo, the pattern was in his favour that day but he really savaged the line. He ran the fastest last 1000m of the meeting, then just the 25th fastest last 800m and 24th-fastest last 200m before running the seventh-fastest last 400m and ninth-fastest last 200m of the meeting. His last start here at Caulfield was over the 1400m where he defeated Streets Of Avalon, who we saw win a Group 3 over the same track and distance just seven days ago. Scott Brunton is a master trainer and he doesn’t travel horses just a for a trip away. Brunton has had 12 runners in Victoria over the last 6 months for five winners and a profit on turnover of 198.33 percent. Brunton spoke after Mandela Effect won his last race at Bendigo, saying that this is the best horse he has ever trained and that’s good enough for me to launch into him here.
Result: Unplaced

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Caulfield Tips August 17- Saturday best bets for Caulfield

Our expert preview of Caulfield racing and the best bets for the meeting.

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