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Caulfield Tips October 19 - Saturday best bets for Caulfield

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 18 Oct 2019
  • 3 to 4 best bets for each Caulfield meeting.
  • Previous results included
Caulfileld racing action

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Caulfield? 

Our form analyst gives you their expert racing tips for Victorian racing each weekend including Caulfield - the home of the Caulfield Cup.

See our free Caulfield tips below:

Caulfield Tips - October 19

Race 2 - 12:50pm QMS Media Plate (1400m)
The horse with the best last start figure in the race is the Adelaide visitor TUBBY TWO TRACKS. She raced behind Roccabascerana first-up at Morphettville before running second behind Jacobite Prince, who is the market tomorrow vs Garner, a horse I have a very big opinion of. He improved his benchmark rating by nine-lengths from his first-up to second-up run and goes barrier one to barrier five and T.Voorham to Craig Williams. She looks a really good bet at the double-figure price. Looking at the dangers, leave me out of the favourite Pretty Brazen with M.Dee on from barrier 12. I thought two horses that could improve was Ready Set Sail, who did enough through the line first-up at The Valley and last preparation deadheated with Flit at Flemington. The other horse at massive odds was Carmen Sandiego. She started $5.50 on debut and finished runner-up behind Snapdancer before a poor ride from J.Fry cost her the race at Echuca. She bumped into a smart one last start and gets B.Melham on board and maps perfectly, I’ll be having something on at the 51’s. 

Race 10 - 5:50PM Schweppes Tristarc Stakes (1400 METRES)
I always against all the horses at the top of the market here, with Pohutukawa, Savatiano and Angelic Ruler all having serious issues with the map, I went looking for value. I think Jamican Rain and Naantali both have fantastic chances and are big odds but the horse I ended up having on top of the Mathew Ellerton and Simon Zahra-trained ARISTIA. She has hit the line hard in both runs this preparation and I thought her last start run at Flemington was one of the runs of the day. I thought one of the runs of the day was the Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained Aristia. I assumed mainstream media would be ranting and raving about this run but I really haven’t heard too much about it. She did enough first-up at Caulfield over 1200m and really bounced off that run, running a terrific fifth in the Blazer Stakes (1400m). The pattern of the day and tempo of the race meant she had no winning chance. The leaders went 2.2 lengths slower than class benchmark and she was back/wide, a place you didn’t want to be on the meeting and she hit the line with Fidelia. She ran the second-fastest last 200m of the entire meeting and eighth-fastest last 400m of the meeting. She was huge through the line and although she won an Oaks over 2500m, I think she’s more suited to a 1400m-1600m trip at this stage of her career and looks a massive price.

Previous Tips:

October 12

Race 3 - 1:25pm Thoroughbred Club Stakes (1200m)
I thought clearly the best bet of the day was the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained LOVING GABY. She had a big two-year-old preparation that included a luckless sixth in the Blue Diamond and a fourth in a Golden Slipper that was dominated by horses on speed. The Mounting Yard information I got from Sydney for the Inglis Sires’ and Champagne Stakes was that she was thin and would vastly improve from a spell. She still ran well in those races but returned at The Valley off a long 160-day spell and looked to have returned in outstanding order. She circled the field three and four wide and ran her last 400m 6.5 lengths above the class benchmark. She ran the third-fastest last 400m of the meeting and I’m sure there is plenty more to come this preparation. I was under the impression she would go to The Manikato second-up so I’m surprised to see her line-up here and I was even more surprised to see TAB open her $4.00+. She is a complete moral with even luck and should be winning, I’m launching. 
Result (2nd - $1.10 to Place)

Race 9 - 5:10pm Lamaro's Hotel Sth Melbourne Toorak Handicap (1600m)
As is often the case, the Toorak Handicap is a very tough betting race but I thought the value was the Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman-trained MADISON COUNTY. He was racing well without winning in three-year-old company behind the likes of The Autumn Sun last preparation and put the writing on the wall that he could progress into open age company with a really nice jumpout at Flemington. He was luckless first-up in the Sir Rupert Clarke (1400m), he ran the second-fastest 800m-600m split of the race before never really having clear galloping room and he went to the line untested. D.Lane was searching for a run at the top of the straight and in a race dominated by those horses on-speed, he hit the line nicely and can bounce off that runsecond-up.He could have a sticky map to contend with from his wide barrier but Damian Lane sticks and I’m happy to play him at $17.
Result (unplaced)

Race 10 - 5:45pm Alfa Romeo Schillaci Stakes (1100m)
Five of the nine runners come through the Moir Stakes (1000m) at The Valley a fortnight ago and that does seem like the strongest lead-up for this. Both Bons Away and Ball Of Muscle are hard in the market and I was keen to be against. The horse I want to be with is the favourite TREKKING. His two trials prior to the Moir Stakes were sensational. He raced over 1000m for the first time in his career and copped a raceshape and set-up that didn’t suit him at all. I still loved the way he hit the line, running the fastest last 400m and 800m of the race. I like him getting on the bigger track and should map well from barrier five with Kerrin McEvoy on board. His two trials in Sydney on heavy ground have been sensational, running third under a grip behind Enticing Star before winning his latest trial. He strikes a good track and a fast early tempo, something he has only got once in his career, as a two-year-old when third behind Menari. This is his first ever go over 1000m but does map to be wide and swooping home. 
Result (1st - $3.70)

September 29

Race 6 - 3:30pm Schweppes Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m)
James Cummings looks to hold the key to this race and although I’m confident that Flit is the best horse in this race but should be better suited over a mile and the map looks horrible from barrier 16 with Hugh Bowman on board. Bowman isn’t known for his intent from wide barriers and Flit looks to get right back and will be set a task. I thought the stablemate TENLEY has built into her preparation nicely and her last start luckless third behind Legionnaire at Flemington was an indication that she is ready to win. She ran only the 12th-fastest 400m-200m split of the race before getting clear galloping room and rocketting home to run the fastest last 200m of the race and the second-fastest last 200m of the meeting, with only her, Mr Quickie and Fidelia breaking 11-seconds for their final 200m. She gets a favourable map from barrier five with Mark Zahra on board and $5.50 seems a fair price in this race.
Result: Unplaced

Race 7 - 4:00pm Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800m)
I can’t go past the favourite HOMESMAN. He resumed from a big 322-day spell with an outstanding victory in the Feehan Stakes (1600m), producing a figure of 11.4 lengths above benchmark which isn’t far away from the best figure of his career. There will be plenty of improvement to come, he gets to Caulfield and won this race second-up last preparation. Ben Melham can control this race from the wide gate, he can either sit outside Trap For Fools/Gailo Chop or take up the lead if those two don’t set a fast early speed. I’m firmly against both Hartnell and Gatting at their current prices. Hartnell is an old warrior, who has produced big figures at both his last two runs but hasn’t won for 11 starts and doesn’t map well at all from barrier one. Gatting caused a massive boilover defeating Mystic Journey, that was a spike figure and off a very fast tempo, I doubt he gets that here and looks under the odds. 
Result: 2nd

September 21

Race 2 - 1:10pm 4CYTE for Living Legends Hcp (1600m)
This looks a two-horse race and I’m happy to be with the outsider of the two, SKIDDAW. He had excuses behind Condo’s Express in listed grade two starts ago at The Valley and was $9.00 into $5.50 last start. He was back on the fence, which clearly was the worst part of the track and I was impressed with his last 200m, running into third. He was one of only three horses to who finished in the top three who were on the fence in run over the entire meeting.The danger is the favourite Long Jack, who ripped home 5.8 lengths above the class benchmark for his final 600m first-up in Australia at Ballarat and he looks a type who will get over much further than 1400m. He looks a Derby prospect but I can’t back a horse off a slow run race on the synthetic into Saturday grade at this price. Looking at the other two horses hard in the market, The Lifeline won and controlled an average midweek race at Sandown and did start $21. The other horse is Huntly Castle who just got over the top of Purrfect Scent at Bendigo before winning an average race at Flemington for two-year-olds, beating Marndarra who finished third in a five horse field at Benchmark 70 level at her next start and Presently, who is whacking around in a Sale maiden on Thursday.
Result (1st - $6.90)

Race 6 - 3:35pm East Malvern Bendigo Bank MRC Foundation Cup (2000 METRES)
I was with the Lindsay Park-trained SIKANDARABAD last start in the Feehan Stakes at The Valley and I’m happy to stick with him after a luckless run. There was support for him first-up in the Lawrence ($34 into $21). He got all the favours along the fence but was really strong through the line, running the second-fastest last 200m of the race and was taking ground off the likes of Hartnell and Cliff’s Edge late. He was just totally unsuited last start behind Homesman who controlled the race in front, running 1.9 lengths slower than class benchmark to the 600m. Sikandarabad was wide and swooping, when finally clear at the top of the straight he ripped home for sixth, running the eighth-fastest 600m-400m split of the race, the seventh-fastest 400m-200m split and the fastest last 200m of the race, while also running the fourth-fastest last 200m of the entire meeting. He gets M.Dee on which certinaly isn’t a huge positive but I’m confident enough that he can give the horse a good steer from barrier six. Some corporates went up as much as $12 in the early markets, that was clearly the wrong price. I’m still happy to take the price on offer but I will wait as we will more than likely get $6.50-$7.00 on the day.
Result (3rd - $1.70 to Place)

August 31

Race 6 - 3:30pm MRC Everest Series Heath 1100 Stakes (1100m)
How quickly things can change in racing, it was only a month ago I said VEGA MAGIC would never win another race after I saw his first jumpout and Flemington, now I’m making him my best bet of the day. As mentioned, I thought his first jumpout was very poor back in late July, his second showed some improvement and his last jumpout on August 12 was the best I’ve ever seen him jumpout with the blinkers on. He jumped cleanly, sat on the speed and slowly increased his margin inside the last 200m, building into his work and won untouched by seven-lengths, defeating Hawker Hurricane, with another three-length gap to Moldova in third. I don’t take much notice of times in jumpouts but he did run 47.77s for the 800m jumpout, which was the quickest of the morning. He started a $2.50 favourite in the Memsie Stakes on this day last year and looked the winner before finding the 1400m a bridge too far. He has an outstanding fresh record, with three wins and two seconds from eight first-up runs and looks to be flying as a seven-year-old. Looking at the race, Gytrash has the best last start benchmark figure in the race, of 13.1 lengths above benchmark but is 70-days between runs and drops back from 1200m to 1100m. The main danger appears to be Ball Of Muscle, who won this race first-up last year. He has been trialling well in Sydney and gets synthetic hoof filler off for the first time, which suggests the horse is sound. 
Result (unplaced)

Race 8 - 4:50pm New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes (1400m)
The first Group One of the season in Melbourne is the Group One Memsie Stakes and I’m keen to take on the favourite Alizee. She is a classy mare but she is far more effective off slow/moderate speeds and I’m expecting a fast early tempo with the likes of Begood Toya Mother, Cliff’s Edge, Fundamentlist, Scales Of Justice and Despatch all likely to push forward. She did win the Group One Futurity Stakes over this track and distance but the leaders did run 2.6 lengths slower than class benchmark to the 600m. The horse I was keen to back was the Lindsay Smith-trained SCALES OF JUSTICE. His first-up victory in the Bletchingly Stakes (1200m) was outstanding and is overall figure of 14.1 lengths above benchmark is Group One quality any day of the week. Although his last start performance was disappointing on face value, he was second-up off a long break, sat three-wide on the speed and it took a very impressive Dalasun to run him down. The race still rated very highly, with Scales Of Justice recording an overall figure of 10.1 lengths above benchmark, which rates as the third-best last start performance in the race. He gets back to Caulfield, which is a positive, as is the speed map. He looks to slot in perfectly from barrier five and should be two pairs back, one-off the fence in a beautiful position.
Result (1st - $5)

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Caulfield Tips October 19 - Saturday best bets for Caulfield

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