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Caulfield Tips May 11 - Saturday best bets for Caulfield

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 9 May 2019
  • 3 to 4 best bets for each Caulfield meeting.
  • Previous results included
Caulfileld racing action

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Caulfield? 

Our form analyst gives you their expert racing tips for Victorian racing each weekend including Caulfield - the home of the Caulfield Cup.

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Caulfield Tips - May 11

Race 2 - 12:30pm Ladbrokes Back Yourself Handicap (1100m)
I’m very keen on the John Price-trained WILLIAM THOMAS. Looking at him first-up in the mounting yard at Caulfield, he was always going to take improvement from that run and I’m actually surprised he got as close as he did to Propelle. He came into the race with no trials or jumpouts and showed outstanding closing speed in a race that rated extremely highly vs the day. He ran the second-fastest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m of the meeting, running 12.3 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m. He can sit three-wide with cover for M.Dee from barrier 12 and swoop home over the top of his rivals. The danger does look to be Delvecchio. I thought it was a weird first-up run at Sandown until I looked at the Stewards vision. The fourth, fifth and sixth-placed horses all go past him at the 200m and he kicks back for third. Looking at the head on vision, D.Dunn was only riding hands and heels until the last 100m when the race is all but over. He ran the 10th-fastest 600m-400m of the race, seventh-fastest 400m-200m and fastest last 200m. He will improve off that the winner has won at Sandown again since. 

Race 7 - 3:40pm Le Pine Funerals Handicap (1100m)
As mentioned in my race two preview, that Propelle and William Thomas race rated extremely highly and I’m keen to follow both horses. The Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained PROPELLE went to a new level last start, she ran a Group standard figure, running two-lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m and coming home 15.6 lengths above benchmark for the last 600m to record an overall figure of 13.6 lengths above benchmark, running the fastest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m of the meeting at Caulfield. I thought the danger at a price was Lady Vega on the seven-day back-up. She opened $16 against the likes of Poised To Strike and started upwards of 40/1 on betfair late. She went back to the inside down the straight, as all the horses in the finish were making their runs on the outside. She ran the fastest 600m-400m of the race, the third-fastest 400m-200m and loomed like she was going to run a big race but just peaked late, running the sixth fastest last 200m.

Race 9 - 4:52pm JRA Handicap (1800m)
I thought the Chris Waller-trained BIRTH OF VENUS was a moral beaten last start and we found the horse at $16 off a hidden gem run two starts prior. He sat back last off a tempo that was 14.9 lengths above benchmark to the 600m but it’s the sectional data that tells the full story. The leaders went very quick early, 1800m-1600m (11.20s), 1600m-1400m (11.34s) then they started to slow up, 1400m-1200m (11.89s), 1200m-1000m (12.53s) and 1000m-800m (12.43s). This is when Oliver gets moving on the winner Grinzinger Star, he blends into the race and expends no energy in the process, going from four-lengths off the leader at the 800m to 2.7 lengths off the leader at the 400m. Michael Walker shows on intent to get on the back of the favourite and only goes from 6.4 lengths off the leader at the 800m to 6.1 lengths off the leader at the 400m. Grinzinger Star runs the fourth-fastest 800m-600m and fastest 600m-400m of the race. Birth Of Venus runs only the fifth-fastest 800m-600m and the seventh-fastest 600m-400m of the race. Birth Of Venus then savages the line, running the fastest last 200m and 400m of the race and 100m past the post, is alongside Grinzinger Star. Grinzinger Star started a solid $2.30 favourite in a good race at Flemington last Saturday and those formlines are strong. M.Dee on from barrier four, I’m happy to take the current $5.00 on offer. 


Previous Caulfield Tips:

April 27


Race 1 - 12:05pm Keno Classic Handicap (1000m)
The opening race on the program at Caulfield looks a two horse affair between William Thomas and the Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained PROPELLE. With race fitness on her side, I’m keen on the latter. I thought she was good first-up at Ballarat, just being nosed out by Ben Hercules on the line. The leader went 10.7 lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m and she just didn’t have the explosive turn of foot first-up. She went to Caulfield at her last start and was given a very tough run, being three-wide no cover throughout and I thought her effort to sick on for third behind Columbus Circle and Leiter was outstanding. Despite the tough run, she ran 9.3 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m for an overall figure of 7.9 lengths above benchmark. That is the best last start figure in the race and should take her a long way here. The John Price-trained William Thomas is the clear danger. The Nicconi gelding has plenty of talent but has been off the scene for 328 days and I couldn’t find any public trials or jumpouts for him. 
Result: (Won - $3.30)

Race 2 - 12:40pm Keno Fun Money Handicap (1400m)
On a tricky meeting with plenty of short priced favourites, my best bet of the program is the Scott Brunton-trained MANDELA EFFECT. I loved the style of his last start victory at Bendigo, the pattern was in his favour that day but he really savaged the line. He ran the fastest last 1000m of the meeting, then just the 25th fastest last 800m and 24th-fastest last 200m before running the seventh-fastest last 400m and ninth-fastest last 200m of the meeting. His last start here at Caulfield was over the 1400m where he defeated Streets Of Avalon, who we saw win a Group 3 over the same track and distance just seven days ago. Scott Brunton is a master trainer and he doesn’t travel horses just a for a trip away. Brunton has had 12 runners in Victoria over the last 6 months for five winners and a profit on turnover of 198.33 percent. Brunton spoke after Mandela Effect won his last race at Bendigo, saying that this is the best horse he has ever trained and that’s good enough for me to launch into him here.
Result: Unplaced

April 20


Race 2 - 12:50pm Bill Collins Handicap (2000m)
I thought the Chris Waller-trained BIRTH OF VENUS has flown under the radar in his two runs in Australia. He was given no chance in his Australian debut at The Valley, he was slow away then back and wide in a slowly run race and was outsprinted the final 600m. He stayed at 1600m second-up and was a hidden gem. The leader Pria Eclipse went 7.3 lengths slower than class benchmark to the 600m, giving horse back in the field no chance. Meech made a move at the 800m and he ran the fastest 800m-600m split but was then outsprinted. He ran the seventh-fastest 600m-400m and fifth-fastest 400m-200m before balancing up and running the fastest last 200m of the race. He has been outsprinted in two slowly run mile races and he should love getting out beyond that distance, up to 2000m now. He looks a good each-way bet in a race where I can find plenty of negatives for the favourites. 
Result (3rd)

Race 6 - 3:15pm Geoff Murphy Handicap (1100m)
It was hard to not be impressed with the Chris Waller-trained VOILA in her recent Flemington jumpout. She just cruised around the 800m jumpout in very quick time, as the jockey sat motionless, never asking the three-year-old filly for an effort. She has performed ok in Sydney but looks better suited in Melbourne, as her one run in Melbourne she produced a career PB, running 7.1 lengths above benchmark and finishing just 0.5 lengths off Bleu Roche and Causeway Girl at Flemington last preparation. She comes to Caulfield second-up off the back of a good run at Warwick Farm and that impressive Flemington jumpout. The favourite Tofane does look talented. Ollie has gone to Ballarat & Bendigo to ride her at her first two starts, she was backed as if unbeatable last start, $1.85 into $1.35 and she bolted in, winning by 3.8 lengths. She went 11.1 lengths above the class benchmark. Barrier 2 with the speed on was my issue with her.
Result (4th)


April 13

Race 1 - 12:20pm Ern Jensen Funerals Handicap (1200m)
I was keen to follow the team Corstens-trained STAND TO ATTENTION at his next start but the favourite Super Seth does look a special talent, so I’ll only be tipping Stand To Attention the place. I really like this horse, he just missed on debut at Kyneton before going to a listed race at The Valley and had excuses, he was slowly away, raced wide and pulled up with a slow recovery in the race won by Cheer Leader who is favourite for a good race at Randwick on Saturday. His last start effort at Bendigo was full of merit, he was back on the inside which was the worst ground and didn’t have any room between the 400m-200m before finally getting clear and charging home. That’s backed up by the sectionals, as he ran just the 10th-fastest 400m-200m split but the second-fastest last 200m of the race. From barrier two with James Winks on board, he should get a soft run just off the speed and can run into the placings.
Result (2nd - $3.70 Place only was suggested)

Race 5 - 2:45pm Thoroughbred Club Galilee Series Final (2425m)
I’m very surprised to see the Tony McEvoy-trained Secret Blaze so short in the market, as I thought he was more around a $6.00 chance. He got his birthday last start, sitting in the perfect spot, wide with cover and peeling onto the best ground in the straight. I’m happy to put the pen through that race at Bendigo that the top three horses come out of, as it looks junk. The horse I want to back is the Archie Alexander-trained CONVICT SAM. He was hard in the market second-up at Sandown and looked to have the race shot to pieces but Smiling City just out bobbed him in the last 50m. With that being said, he did run the quickest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m of the race. He bolted in his maiden at Donald last start as a $1.40 favourite, justifying that short quote to win by 2.8 lengths. He brings the different form and maps perfectly from barrier four with J.Childs on board. 
Result (4th)

Race 8 - 4:50pm Yulonginvest.com.au Bel Esprit Stakes (1100m)
This Sarah Zschoke-trained EDUARDO looks the best of good things in the listed Bel Esprit Stakes at Caulfield and I can’t believe we’re still getting even money on Friday morning. He bolted in a Cranbourne trial by eight-lengths before his first-up run in the Oakleigh Plate and despite the trainer and jockey combination, the ‘smart’ money poured in late, as he went from $11 into $5.00 in that Group One. He sat three-wide on a lightening fast tempo, as the leaders went 12.2 lengths above benchmark to the 600m. While the likes of Nature Strip couldn’t absorb that pressure, he did and still looked the winner at the 200m before Booker and Encryption ran him down late. Looking at the position in running at the 800m mark of top five placings in the race, Booker (10th), Encryption (13th), Eduardo (3rd), Bons Away (9th) and Spright (16th), we see that  Eduardo was the only horse on or near the speed to keep kicking which gives even more merit to his performance. He was well-backed last start in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m), he ran an uncharastically poor race and it was obvious that his Oakleigh Plate run flattened him. Zschoke has given him a quick freshen up and judging by his Cranbourne jumpout, he looks back at the top of the game. There does look good speed in this race but Eduardo has proven he can handle that pressure and the likes of Bons Away and Desert Lashes shouldn’t be giving him too much trouble.
Result (3rd)


April 6

Race 2 - 1:00pm Selangor Turf Club Handicap (1600m)
The class horse in the field is clearly the Anthony Freedman-trained DANON ROMAN. He ran 11.9 lengths above benchmark in his Australian debut at Flemington, when finishing a close-up third behind Furrion. Only Mihany has a better career PB and that horse will never win another race against. He went to Caulfield second-up last preparation and wasn’t beaten far behind Furrion and Group One winner Best Of Days. He was soft from the mounting yard first-up at Sandown and his sectional times reflect that. He ran the quickest 800m-600m, second-fastest 600m-400m, third-fastest 400m-200m and only the seventh-fastest last 200m of the race. Horses only go one way off that type of first-up run and that’s up. I’m keen to back him at around $4.40. The danger looks to be the Joseph Waldron-trained I Got You. I blackbooked his horse after he ran some of the best sectionals of the day first-up in Australia behind Mystyko and Redcore at Caulfield. He went to Sydney two starts ago and ran a nice fourth at a big price behind the likes of Star Of The Seas who has won since. Nothing went right for him last start at Geelong and he gets J.Kah from C.Douglas.
Result (unplaced)

Race 8 - 4:55pm Ladbrokes Anniversary Vase (1400m)
I’m pretty keen on the Scott Brunton-trained HELLOVA STREET. He went down narrowly last start at Flemington behind Widgee Turf who is a $26 chance in the G1 Doncaster Mile at Randwick. Looking at the form behind him, the third-placed Streets Of Avalon has won a listed race since and the eighth-placed Haripour has won a listed race since. Three starts ago Hellova Street only went down to Mystic Journey by a half-length. I cannot understand how this horse is $6.00. His last start figure of 11.4 lengths above benchmark is clearly the best last start figure in the race and is an each-way moral. The Mick Price-trained Heptagon is $4.60 into $2.50 and I’m shocked at that early move. I had him priced $5.00 and I can’t make heads or tails of this massive early go. I thought he got the perfect run to win last start at Echuca and although he gets 6kg from Hellova Street, the latter is a much better athlete.
Result (unplaced)

Race 9 - 5:30pm Le Pine Funerals Handicap (2000m)
The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained THUNDER CLOUD does look over the odds in the last race on the program. He ran the best figures on a good day at Flemington second-up, running 14.1 lengths above benchmark to defeat Antah, who has won again since and has Group One targets in the Spring. He was disappointing on face value at Flemington two starts ago but faced a completely different race shape than his win the start prior and didn’t really handle the sit and sprint nature of the race. He got too far out of his ground last start at Mornington, which doesn’t look his ideal track but still ran home solidly into third. He gets the blinkers back on, gets the best appearance in Victoria on board, Teo Nugent and gets in with only 51kg. The speed will be on and he should get every chance to run over the top of them late.
Result (unplaced)


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Caulfield Tips May 11 - Saturday best bets for Caulfield

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