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Caulfield Tips October 16 - Three best bets for Blue Sapphire Stakes Day

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 15 Oct 2019
  • Blue Sapphire Stakes Day Tips 
  • Three best bets for Caulfield 
Caulfield

Racing is at Caulfield on Wednesday for Blue Sapphire Stakes Day. Traditionally the rail has been in the true for this meeting but it is out 10m the entire on Wednesday. I’m thinking this will favour horses on or near the speed but watch and learn as the day progresses. I’m keen to bet on the program and I’ll be betting into three races. 

Race 3 - 2:35pm Ladbrokes Coongy Cup (2000m)
When I started doing the form for this race I wanted to find Oceanex with the positive jockey change on the quick back-up but I had to put the pen through her at the price. The other horse I had queries on in the market was Wolfe. It is a Gai Waterhouse horse who is a leader back in distance (a positive) and gets the blinkers back on but the fact he was just grinding home last start suggests the step back from 2500m to 2000m must be a negative. The horse I found was the Chris Waller-trained YULONG PRINCE. He worked to the line well first-up at Caulfield, running the second-fastest last 200m of the race. Second-up at The Valley he was completely unsuited with the race shape but again hit the line nicely, running the third-fastest last 200m of the race. I thought his run was better than it looked last start in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m). He was back and wide and once balanced, he really savaged the line and actually ran the fastest L200m of the race to finish eighth. The horses he crossed the line with who finished ninth and tenth were The Chosen One (won the Herbert Power since) and Humidor (fifth in the Caul Stakes). It was a fast run 1800m race and he is now fourth-up, Mark Zahra, barrier five, he should have the perfect platform to show his best. The other horse I will be backing at a big price is the lesser favoured Lloyd WIlliams runner SPANISH STEPS. He came to Australia with outstanding form, boasting a victory against Johannes Vermeer in Leopardstown. He was first-up off a long spell at Flemington and Ben Melham couldn’t find a way clear, when finally out at the 150m he charged home (rider never full bore) running the fastest last 200m of the race. He probably doesn’t have the right platform for this but is worth a saver at massive odds.

Race 7 - 5:05pm Catanach's Jewellers Blue Sapphire Stakes (1200m)
I found this a fascinating race to do the form for. The speed should be good, with Anaheed punching up from an inside gate, Dubious and Barcali rolling forward. I doubt there is too much between these horses and for that reason, I’m going with a horse in double figure in EXCESS FUNDS. He has a terrific SP profile against some G1 horses. He was backed from $6.00 and started $3.70 against Bivouac and Dubious here at Caulfield. He failed and was given a 49-day freshen-up when he returned down the straight at Flemington. He ran the fastest 400m-200m split of the race then was never, ever clear over the final 200m and went to the line climbing over heels hard held. He gets the golden switch from barrier one to barrier 12 and actually gets a really nice map here, as he should just be blending into the race nicely three-wide with cover. It was an awesome return from Brooklyn Hustle who resumed in the same race as Excess Funds and was also luckless. The pattern was against and she was only clear inside the clocktower, getting out and flashing home in the fastest L200m of the race and the fifth-fastest last 200m of the meeting. I’m not sure what way the market will go with the horses in the market. I think Dubious will drift, I think that Danehill Stakes form is junk, Exhilarates hasn’t done anything wrong and ran an equal career PB last start behind Loving Gaby and should get a good run from barrier eight. Condo’s Express is currently $6 and could start $4.00 or $9.00 and I wouldn’t be surprised. I’m risking him as he is yet to post a figure but B.Melham sticks, he has been gelded and his recent trial at Cranbourne was fantastic, splitting Bad Wolf and Vanuatu. 




Race 8 - 5:45pm FDC Ladies' Day Vase (1600m)
As previously mentioned a few times, I am seat 1A in the Fidelia fan club but again, I can’t back her here at the price with the race shape she is likely to get again. She really had no winning chance with the pattern of the day last start there at Flemington and she was in the lanes that no horses really made ground from all day. She ran the fastest L200m and L400m of the meeting but that’s almost expected at this point. She will be back last from barrier 13 but does get B.Melham on board. The horse I want to be with is RONDINELLA. She was terrific in Group One company in Australia over the Autumn and returned in the G2 Stocks Stakes last start. She was held-up behind runners while the winner Princess Jenni was building momentum but when clear she charged to the line running the second-fastest last 200m of the race. Now I’m not a big weights man at all but she does look very well in here, she was only getting 2.5kg vs Avilius in a G1 last prep and is now on the minimum in a G3 mares race. The only concern is, she stays at 1600m. The other horse at a price that I will be saving on is Spanish Reef. She comes through the same race as Rondinella and was kept very safe in the market at $11 despite two very poor runs prior. She went back and really built into the race, running the 10th-fastest 600m-400m split of the race, 6th-fastest 400-200m and fastest L200m of the race. She should push forward from the outside gate and looks overs. 



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Caulfield Tips October 16 - Three best bets for Blue Sapphire Stakes Day

Racing is at Caulfield on Wednesday for Blue Sapphire Stakes Day. Traditionally the rail has been in the true for this meeting but it is out 10m the entire on Wednesday. I’m thinking this will favour horses on or near the speed but watch and learn as the day progresses. I’m keen to bet on the program and I’ll be betting into three races.

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