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Cranbourne Tips July 17 - Two best bets for Cranbourne on Wednesday

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 16 Jul 2019
  • Cranbourne Racing Preview 
Cranbourne

Midweek racing takes a short hiatus from Sandown, with a rare Wednesday meeting at Cranbourne. We have an eight-race card on a Heavy 10 track and although it looks tough conditions, I’m really keen to have a bet. 

Race 4 - 2:10pm Core Protective Group Class 1 Handicap (1300m)
The four-year-old gelding CZECHOSLOVAKIA hasn’t won in his eight starts in Australia but gets a perfect chance to break through in what looks a weak race. He was huge last start, getting within a nose of Aroha Te Mana despite both the tempo of the race and the pattern of the day being against him. It was a difficult day to make ground and the leaders went 11.8 lengths below benchmark to the 600m, giving him almost no chance of winning the race. He made a long, wide run around the field, running the fifth-fastest 600m-400m split of the race, the sixth-fastest 400m-200m split of the race and rocketed home in the fastest last 200m of the race. He ran some really good closing splits vs the day, running the sixth-fastest last 200m of the meeting and 10th-fastest last 400m of the meeting. Thomas Stockdale sticks with the horse and the blinkers go on for the first time. I regard Stockdale as the best apprentice in Melbourne and his results back that up, with 12 winners from his last 50 rides and a positive ROI of 91 percent. The Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young stable is airborne, with 11 winners from their last 50 runners and a positive ROI of 39.6 percent. The main danger could be Simply Dreaming who also looks an attractive price in this race. She was given none last start at Sale, running the eighth-fastest 400m-200m split when held-up in traffic before running the third-fastest last 200m of the race. The race rated well vs the day and the quick back-up will suit. 

Race 5 - 2:45pm PROCON Developments 3YO Fillies BM64 Handicap (1400m)
This race sets up well for the Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra-trained DARMASUN. I really liked her first-up performance on a Heavy 10 at Moe, scoring a tough victory and the form from the race has been very strong. The second-placed runner Fight went onto break his maiden at Mornington before winning a Metro race at Sandown and the third-placed runner High Beam has also broken her maiden since, winning at Bendigo last Sunday. I thought Darmasun put in another good performance last start on a Heavy 9 at Geelong, she led and probably found the 1200m second-up a little sharp after that gutbusting win first-up at Moe. She led and hung on well, running fourth behind the likes of Cashed Up. The 1400m should suit and it looks a favourable map from barrier five. I thought the Jerome Hunter-trained Catching Beams was a false favourite, although she may have the pattern to suit again on Wednesday. It was a perfectly judged ride from Logan McNeil last start, slowly increasing the tempo from the 800m and bolting away to win by 3.3 lengths. Having said that, she did have the pattern in her favour on that day and went at a tempo that was 15.8 lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m, which is nothing more than barrier trial speed. With the likes of Don’t Doubt Maeve in the race, she will be forced to work much harder to lead this field. 



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Cranbourne Tips July 17 - Two best bets for Cranbourne on Wednesday

Midweek racing takes a short hiatus from Sandown, with a rare Wednesday meeting at Cranbourne. We have an eight-race card on a Heavy 10 track and although it looks tough conditions, I’m really keen to have a bet.

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