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Flemington Tips November 9 - Expert tips and best bets

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 8 Nov 2019
  • 2 to 3 best bets for Flemington each meeting.

Flemington racing

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing and feature days at Flemington? 

Our form analyst gives you their expert racing tips for Victorian racing each weekend including Flemington - the home of the iconic Melbourne Cup.

See our free Flemington tips below:

Flemington Tips - November 9 

Race 5 - 2:50PM Darley Sprint Classic (1200 METRES)

Race 6 - 3:30PM TAB Matriarch Stakes (2000 METRES)
Race 6 sees the mares in action at Group 2 level over the 2000m and a top three finish looks to be on the cards for AMANGIRI. I really loved the Team Hawkes-trained galloper knuckled to the task when challenged in the last race of Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley a fortnight ago, defying the pattern of the day to hold on ahead of Seewhatshebrings and Vanuatu. There is a slight query on her 2000m form but she was runner-up in the Adrian Knox (2000m) behind the eventual Australian Oaks (2400m) winner, Aliferous, back in the autumn and has had excuses at her other two. She has drawn well and should give a great sight. 

Race 8 - 4:55PM Seppelt Mackinnon Stakes (2000 METRES)

Read the full race preview.

Race 9 - 5:45PM Seppelt Drumborg Grand Handicap (1100 METRES)
The final race of the week-long Flemington carnival is the Grand Handicap for the sprinters and ESPERANCE should feature in the finish. The Godolpihn galloper started at a short price recently over the 955m trip at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate day and was really only warming up late when runner-up to Fine Dane. That run came off a 50 week break and she should strip much fitter for this. Her runs at Flemington have been excellent in the past. She wasn't far away at Group 2 level in the Danehill Stakes (1200m) last year and was 3rd in this race last year behind Order Of Command. She should tuck in just behind them and the consistent performer looks to be a solid player. 

Previous Tips:

November 7 

Race 3 - 2:55pm Off The Track Subzero Handicap (1400m)
The five-year-old daughter of Snitzel, PLATINUM ANGEL is yet another horse who looks to be flying now in the Lindsay Smith stable. She narrowly missed in a G2 race in Queensland last preparation behind Invincibella but with the benchmark ratings I use, she produced what was clearly a career personal best performance first-up for Lindsay Smith at Caulfield over 1100m. She ran a benchmark figure of 13.5 lengths above BM which rated up with the Group 1 Underwood Stakes while running the fastest last 600m and 800m of a G1 meeting. Last start over 1200m nothing went right for her, she drew barrier one which doesn’t suit her, as she a big striding mare and she didn’t get any racing room between the 600m-200m and by the time she was out, the race was all over. In my notes post-race, I said this horse needs a switch from an inside barrier to an outside barrier and she gets exactly that, going from barrier 1 to barrier 12, going from J.Allen to D.Oliver and she gets the tongue tie on for the first time. She has a good third-up record and with enough pace on early, she can blend into the race and be too good late. 
Result: 4th

Race 4 - 3:30pm Bumble Trophy Race (1700m)
It looks likes a competitive race but the Chris Waller-trained NUDGE is the horse I have to be with. The first time I saw her in the flesh was at trackwork at The Valley, where I thought she clearly worked better than her stablemate Girl Tuesday, who started $5.00 in a Group race on Cox Plate Day. I thought she was clearly the run of the race in the G2 Fillies Classic (1600m) on the same day, as she found nothing but trouble from barrier one. She was held-up in behind the leaders from the 400m-200m, when the gap finally came at around the 125m mark, she quickened nicely but Fascino rolled in and she ran out of room around, being crowded in the concluding stages and was hit with another horses whip. I think with even luck, she wins that race and starts closer to $3.20 here at Flemington, a track who should suit her. She should get a more favourable map from barrier three and although she will likely need some luck again, we’re also getting a price to find out. 
Result: Won ($4.60) 

Race 6 - 4:40pm Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final (1600m)
I’m sure the unbeaten Harbour Views will have plenty of supporters but I think that the Greg Eurall-trained O’TAUTO can turn the tables on him. He was 1.7 lengths behind Harbour Views at the 200m when they met last start at Geelong and got the margin to within a half-length and closing. He produced a really nice closing split of 7.3L above BM for his final 600m and not surprisingly, ran the quickest last 200m and 400m of the meeting. He loves Flemington and is a winner at the track and is also G3 placed behind The Inevitable and Age Of Chivalry. I know barrier 15 doesn’t look great on paper but that will likely come into barrier 12 after the emergencies come out and Ollie will likely find a good position and blend into the race. I would much rather be drawn there than barrier one of Harbour Views. John Allen will either need to use him up early to get on the leaders back with the big weight, or he will be trapped midfield and buried back on the rails. I think it will be advantage Ollie here and at the price, I’m keen to bet. 
Result: Unplaced 

November 2

Race 1 - 11:45am TAB Stakes (1200m)
The two obvious horses here are Zoutori and VIRIDINE and I’m keen on the latter at the price. He began slowly and was never in the race first-up the Moir Stakes (1000m) but obviously took a stack of improvement from that run into the Schillaci Stakes (1100m) which rated through the roof. The winner Trekking put up a figure of 16.8L above benchmark, which is a genuine G1 rating. He attacked the line, running the second-fastest last 200m and 400m of the meeting and gave every impression that 1200m third-up will be ideal. His last start figure is the best career performance of any horse in this race and with Hugh Bowman on board from barrier 10, I think he’ll be going very close in the first race of the Flemington Carnival. 
Result: Unplaced

Race 2 - 12:20pm G.H. Mumm Wakeful Stakes (2000m)
The James Cummings-trained FLIT clearly looks the best horse in this race and with a predicted slowly run 2000m race on paper, she looks very well suited. She also looks well suited at the weights, as if this was a handicap she would be giving the field 15kg. She is clearly the class horse of the field, running behind the likes of Libertini in Sydney before having no luck in the Thousand Guineas Prelude. She had little luck again last start in the Thousand Guineas but got her head down on the line to win. I thought the danger was actually Miami Bound, not Vegas Jewel. Miami Bound overraced early last start in the Ladbrokes Classic (2000m) and had to do plenty of work through the middle stages of the race behind Derby favourite Thought Of That. She drops back to her own sex and is the horse I will be saving on. 
Result: 4th

Race 6 - 3:00pm Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)
I am very confident EXCEEDANCE runs a massive race. He owned Bivouac first-up in a small field, running his last 600m 14.3 lengths above benchmark. He was unsuited in the Run To The Rose (1200m) second-up behind Bivouac and Yes Yes Yes and was again unsuited in the Golden Rose as he ran home into third, with the first four horses in running at the 600m mark, running 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th. He has had the quick four-week freshen-up, unlike Bivouac who is deep into his preparation. Exceedence gets the blinkers on for the first time and jumped out like a jet down the straight last week. He looks an outstanding price and I’m keen to bet. 
Result: Won ($3.80)

October 5

Race 4 - 2:25pm Blazer Stakes (1400m)
I thought the horse to beat in an open race was ANGELIC RULER. She was first-up for 183-days off a hot jumpout in the How Now Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield. The betting said she wasn’t ready to win first-up, as she was $13 out to $18. She was travelling sweetly at the top of the straight, she ran the quickest 600m-400m split of the race then got squeezed between runners. She then checked off heals and was stuck behind the tiring Pippie who was falling back in her lap, when finally clear she flew home behind Manicure, she only ran the eighth-fastest 400m-200m split of the race but picked up and fan clearly the fastest last 200m of the race, running 11.50s vs Manicure 11.72s. She gets up to 1400m second-up, goes from D.Yendall to D.Oliver and maps perfectly from barrier six, I think she is an outstanding bet at the price. The obvious danger is clearly Fidelia. I expected her to open longer last start in the Let’s Elope Stakes last start but was hard in the market. Jye McNeil went to go outside and didn’t go to the fence until the last 200m, burst through a gap and ran the fourth-fastest last 200m and 400m of the meeting. She always needs luck and seems short enough at the current $3.10 quote after opening $8.00. 
Result (3rd - $2.10 to Place

Race 5 - 3:05pm McGregor Portables Super Impose Stakes (1800m)
I thought the betting told the story between the two Lindsay Smith-trained runners last start, as Adelaide Ace was $9.00 into $6.00 and OLYMPIC OATH was $4.60 out to $7.00. When money goes on Lindsay Smith runners, it must be respected and not surprisingly, Olympic Oath was buried back on the fence and Adelaide Ace was blending into the race perfectly three-wide. I thought the effort of Olympic Oath to still run the second-fastest last 400m of the race was sensational and I can’t believe he is $18 in early markets. I was really taken with his first-up performance at The Valley, he was wide and forced to be a make a long, swooping run. He ran the fastest 1000m-800m and 800m-600m of the race and still finished off with the second-fastest last 400m. He is a big striding horse who didn’t get to show his best last start at Flemington. The switch from barrier five to barrier 14 is ideal, gets Mark Zahra on and the blinkers come on for the first time. Happy to play at the each-way odds.
Result (unplaced)

Race 6 - 3:45pm Gilgai Stakes (1200m)
I’m taking on the two bonafide Group One stars Sunlight and Santa Ana Lane and I’m backing the up and coming ZOUTORI, who looks to have gone to another level since last preparation. The four-year-old gelding was one of the most heavily backed runners all day last start in the Bobby Lewis (1200m), being backed from $9.00 into $5.00 and produced a huge late close to score a two-length victory. He ran the equal-fastest last 200m of the meeting and the fastest last 400m of the meeting, despite running only the 6th-fastest 400m-200m split of the meeting. Considering he was first-up for 98-days and wasn’t a standout from the mounting yard, I’d suggest there is plenty of improvement to come. He looks to map perfectly from barrier 12 and he’s a bet for me. The horse I’m most keen to take on is Santa Ana Lane. Plenty of Australian horses haven’t come back after racing in Hong Kong so that has to be considered, along with the fact that he never runs a great figure first-up, with two victories from seven first-up runs, his last two performances first-up was a fifth behind Sunlight in the Newmarket and a fifth behind Ball Of Muscle. Sunlight is the main danger in my opinion and I wouldn’t be surprised if she runs a clear favourite. She never runs well first-up, so put a line through that performance then she looked completely gone at the 600m mark in the Moir but was still making ground to the line, running the third-fastest last 200m of the race. Third-up on the quick back-up, I won’t be losing on her.
Result (3rd - $2.20 to Place)

September 14

Team Williams and trainer Liam Howley saddle up four runners in the opening event where DOUGLAS MACARTHUR may be their best chance despite not being the favoured runner. The son of Galileo resumed from a two-year break and was far from disgraced finishing 3.8 lengths from Guizot over 1600m at Caulfield. He stepped up to 2040m at The Valley last time and was caught three deep without cover for the trip, and his run really impressed. He dropped out on the bend as was going to run last, but he started to surge again late and passed a few runners near the line. I think he’s looking for this trip already, and with a softer run in transit, and Ben Melham being familiar with him now, he can run a big race.
Result (scratched)

Super Seth ran his final 200m in 11.36 when first-up this campaign and that was the quickest final split of his career. Interestingly, only Lyre has matched that sprint, but the Leon Macdonald and Andrew Gluyas-trained DALASAN has run 11.28 and 10.98 in his first campaign, and he clearly has a strong turn of foot. His first-up win over subsequent Memsie Stakes winner Scales Of Justice in the Spring Stakes (1200m) was very impressive, and it rated 11 lengths above all benchmark (BM) which is easily the strongest last start BM figure in the race. He maps well here and should be able to follow Lyre into the race before peeling late and finishing best. 
Result (1st - $3.10)

Race 6 - 3:30PM LET'S ELOPE STAKES (1400 METRES)
FIDELIA is unbeaten in three starts at Flemington and she really caught the eye with a slashing but somewhat unlucky run first-up behind Pippie. She went back from barrier 9 and tried to angle out and build momentum, but with nothing eventuating, regular rider Jye McNeil ducked back to the inside and started to make a run. Gaps were closing and the mare had to switch course a couple of times, and with clear running she may have made things interesting. She looks to have come back in great order and should be better suited over 1400m back to Flemington.
Result (3rd - $1.60 to Place)

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Flemington Tips November 9 - Expert tips and best bets

Jackson Oldham previews racing from Flemington on Saturday and gives his best bets for the meeting.

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