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Flemington Tips May 25 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 23 May 2019
  • 2 to 3 best bets for Flemington each meeting.

Flemington racing

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Flemington? 

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Flemington Tips - May 25


Race 3 - 12:45pm LUCRF Super Handicap (1100m)
A case could be made for at least eight horses in this race but It’s the Amy & Ash Yargi-trained I’M TELLING YA that represents the value to my eye. I can’t believe the corporates went up $41 and I won’t be surprised if they continue to back him and he starts closer to $15. Nothing went right first-up for the new stable at Sandown as he sat on-speed (against his normal pattern) and just never looked comfortable. He was given three-weeks between runs and dropped back from 1300m to 1100m at Caulfield. He was run off his legs through the early stages of the race, he was under riding and was three-lengths behind the second-last horse at the 600m and I thought he was entitled to finish near last. I loved the way he picked up once he got balanced, flashing home for third behind William Thomas and Akkadian in the highest-rating race of the day, which was 10.5 lengths above the overall benchmark. He ran the fastest last 600m and 800m of the entire meeting and the ninth-fastest last 200m and 400m of the meeting. The small query is he stays at 1100m but he goes from M.Poy to L.Currie and we’re getting the price to find out. 



Race 8 - 4:05pm The Andrew Ramsden (2800m)
This looks a complete two horse race and I’m siding with the horse that could possibly be Australia’s best stayer, the Paul Preusker-trained SURPRISE BABY. He did things that horses simply don’t do, going from 2000m to 3200m and bolting in the Adelaide Cup at only his sixth career start. He wasn’t seen for seven-weeks and returned at Flemington three weeks ago against Steel Prince over 2600m. Steel Prince went 15.4 lengths above benchmark to the 600m and still held on, so the win was full of merit but Surprise Baby was clearly the run of the race and almost the run of the day. He was hampered with the fall that occured at the 700m mark and lost several lengths and momentum coming into the straight. He ran the fourth-fastest 1000m-800m of the race, then the ninth-fastest 800m-600m, fifth-fastest 600m-400m and the fastest 400m-200m and last 200m. He ran his last 400m in 24.29s, the second-fastest last 400m in the race was Sin To Win (24.76s). Surprise Baby is our most exciting stayer in a long time and from barrier 18, Dean Holland can just keep her out the back, build momentum from the 800m and I’m confident she can run over the top of Steel Prince with a smooth run in transit and the extra 200m.

Race 9 - 4:40pm Furphy Ale Plate (1100m)
This looks a really interesting race and the other straight races earlier in the meeting should tell us a lot about how this race is likely to unfold. I’m with the Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr)-trained ANJANA and the $5.50 in early markets does look over the odds. She was $8.50 into $6.00 first-up for the new stable down the straight in the Listed Incognitus Stakes (1100m) and she bolted in, defeating Sunsets Watch, Fine Dane and Krone. She won easily again at The Valley before starting $2.50 in Adelaide and running third (beaten 0.6 lengths) behind Humma Humma and Behemoth, who was a nose away from winning the Group One Goodwood (1200m) last Saturday. She then faced the Group 1 Robert Sangster (1200m) last start and ran a really nice sixth. She ran the second-fastest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m of the race, only Spright ran faster for those closing sectionals. I would be launching at the current price but there are a few factors that scare me about this race and I’m not convinced I know what will unfold.


Previous Flemington Tips:

May 18


Race 2 - 12:15pm Brent Thomson Hall of Fame Trophy (1400m)
I thought the bet at the current price was the Doug Harrison-trained MY BIDDY. She went down narrowly first-up behind Miss Vixen who all but beat Iconoclasm last start at Caulfield. She then stepped up to Benchmark 90 grade and was ran second behind Grey Shadow who is a Group class horse. At her last start, she led and fought on but maybe just found the 1100m slightly too sharp in Open grade. She still broke class benchmark which I found encouraging. She steps up from 1100m to 1400m but is fourth-up and on the seven-day back-up. She gets Steph Thornton on board, who is a terrific rider of leaders and there doesn’t look to be too much pace in this race. 
Result (unplaced)

Race 6 - 2:50pm So You Think Hall of Fame Trophy (1600m)
FIDELIA looks a complete moral again. She as well-backed two starts agoat Sandown and couldn’t get clear room between the 500m-200m, she ran the fifth-fastest 600m-400m of the race, the eighth-fastest 400m-200m and when finally clear, the second-fastest last 200m of the race. Her last start victory at Flemington was even more impressive. She found herself in a seemingly impossible position at the top of the straight and she was still 9th, 2.6 lengths off the leader at the 200m mark. She somehow flew home to win by a length, running the 37th-fastest last 800m of the meeting, 14th-fastest last 600m of the meeting, fifth-fastest last 400m of the meeting and second-fastest last 200m of the meeting. She stays in Benchmark 78 grade and the step-up in distance from 1400m to 1600m should be no issue. She is too good for these. 
Result (1st - $2.50)



May 4

Race 2 - 12:25pm Apache Cat Handicap (1620m)
The Chris Waller-trained PHONEME is a horse I have always had plenty of time for. He won from an impossible position at Bendigo last preparation and went to Flemington at his next start, storming over the top of Social Spin to record a terrific victory, running the fastest last 800m and 1000m of the meeting. He returned in good order at Caulfield first-up, he looked like he was really going to put himself in the finish, running the second-fastest 600m-400m split of the race, fourth-fastest 400m-200m before his condition just gave out and he ran the eighth-fastest last 200m of the race, running a close-up third behind Tarwin who has won impressively since. His figures don’t jump off the page as a horse I want to back, that Flemington victory was his career PB. It rated 4.4 lengths above benchmark which doesn’t look good enough on face value but with a good map and getting in with a nice weight, I’m confident he can go close. 
Result: Unplaced

Race 3 - 1:00pm Rogan Josh Handicap (1410m)
I was with the Robbie Griffiths-trained FIDELIA at Sandown last start and I see no reason to jump off after a very impressive win. She was huge at Caulfield first-up for 210 days off an only ok barrier trial. She didn’t look ready to go from the mounting yard and sat second-last the fence before weaving her way through the field and savaging the line. She ran the third-fastest last 200m of the meeting, second-fastest last 400m of the meeting and third-fastest last 600m of the meeting, running 5.6 lengths above the class benchmark for her final 600m. She as well-backed last start at Sandown and couldn’t get clear room between the 500m-200m, she ran the fifth-fastest 600m-400m of the race, the eighth-fastest 400m-200m and when finally clear, the second-fastest last 200m of the race. It was an outstanding win and she really attacked the line like there’s more to come. I’m confident this is a horse we can continue following through her preparation. She goes J.Mc Neil to E.Brown which should be a positive jockey change and she maps well from barrier four. Best bet of the day.
Result: Won ($2.90)

April 25

Race 1 - 1:00pm William Newton VC Handicap (2520m)
The David Brideoake-trained SELF SENSE is the horse to beat in the opening race on the program at Flemington. He was gearing up for the jumps at the start of this preparation but those plans have been put on hold, as he earnt a ticket to the Caulfield Cup with a terrific victory in the Mornington Cup two starts ago. He went to Randwick and contested the Chairman’s Quality last start and his run was outstanding. He sat wide with no cover for the duration of the 2600m event and still finished only two-lengths off Gallic Chieftain and Shaaroh. He gets D.Oliver from L.Nolen and his peak figure of 12.5 lengths above benchmark is the best in the race. The horse with the best last start figure of the race is the John Sadler-trained Observational. He went 11.1 lengths above benchmark and savaged the line, running the fastest last 200m of the race (11.54s). He is on the quick back-up from Saturday and a drastic improvement wouldn’t surprise me at 26/1. There is no doubt that the Liam Howley-trained Bass is the main danger. He was huge first-up against the pattern of the day at Sandown, sitting back off the speed on a day where four of the eight winners led. He ran the 17th-fastest last 200m, fifth-fastest last 400m and 19th-fastest last 600m of the meeting. I thought that although the run was huge, the winner All Too Huiying did run eight-lengths above benchmark to the 600m, giving Bass a chance to run on. He is a big chance but is just too short at the current quote for me. 
Result (unplaced)

Race 5 - 3:25pm Auckland Racing Club Trophy (1400m)
I’m very keen on the John Sadler-trained BIG NIGHT OUT, who exploded away to win at Sandown like a very good horse last start. The slowly run race first-up over 1200m didn’t suit him first-up but he really improved from the mounting yard off the back of that performance and up to 1400m was ideal last start. He was the winner a long way out in that race and really showed a brillant turn of foot, running the fastest last 200m and 400m of the meeting and also the third-fastest last 600m of the meeting. His figure of 6.3 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m indicates he is a horse with a very good turn of foot. Third-up last preparation was here at Flemington over the 1400m, he finished only a length behind Wild Planet and Ranier, improving almost ten-lengths from his second-up performance to record a figure of 7.3 lengths above benchmark. He doesn’t need to improve as significantly third-up this preparation to be winning but a repeat of that trending improvement, at this track and distance should see him going very close. M.Dee on from barrier five, I’m extremely keen.
Result (2nd)

Race 7 - 4:35pm The Les Carlyon (1710m)
No surprise to see the early support for MANTASTIC, the $5.00 that a few bookies went up was clearly the wrong price and he has been backed early. He comes through the Golden Mile at Bendigo which looks a very good form reference for a race like this. He finished as the runner-up behind Haripour and the horses behind him include (4th) Mahamedeis who has since won an open grade at Caulfield, (5th) Odeon who has finished fourth in the G3 Easter Cup, (7th) Plein Ciel, finished third behind Mahamedeis then won the G3 Easter Cup, (10th) Morton’s Fork, third in the Easter Cup and Furrion (13th) who finished second in the Easter Cup. He goes from M.Walker to M.Dee which is a positive and only goes up 1kg on that Golden Mile performance. He maps well from barrier five and although he will be giving the second favourite Call Me Handsome a start, the long Flemington straight should suit perfectly.  
Result (unplaced)


March 16

Race 2 - 1:20PM Autumn Trophy (1400m)
When I was doing the form for this race, I was really trying to find Write Your Name. I love the horse and I thought his first-up fourth when three-wide with no cover was terrific behind Mr Quickie and Age Of Chivalry in what looks a hot form race. I will be saving on him but the horse I found was the Hawkes runner OUTRAGEOUS. His exposed form is lengths better than this field, he broke his maiden as a $1.40 favourite defeating Tin Hat before running third, beaten a length behind El Dorado Dreaming and Oohood in the Group 1 Sires’ Produce. He ran nice fourths in Group races behind the likes of Aramayo and Leonardo Da Hinchi last preparation before failing in the Caulfield Guineas. The important thing to note is, he has since been gelded and looks a far more professional horse, judging by his recent jumpout at Flemington. It was a slick piece of work and he was given a nice hitout, going to the line with Le Romain. I’m happy to take on the favourite Jumbo Ozaki, his two wins have been stylish but he times haven’t been anything special and I would need to see him produce a figure before backing him as as $2.60 favourite in a race of this class.
Result: 1st ($13.00)

Race 3 - 1:55pm TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (1200m)
I usually don’t like betting into two-year-old races, especially down the straight before seeing them in the mounting yard but I’m making an exception, putting the Peter & Paul Snowden-trained TALENTED as my best bet of the day at Flemington. The daughter of Snitzel stepped out at Geelong on debut and won impressively, running the fastest last 600m of the meeting to defeat La Tene, who won the Group 2 Sires’ Produce last Saturday. She went to the Talindert Stakes (1100m) down the straight last start and was very heavily backed, running second behind Microphone who has since franked that form, winning the Inglis Millenium defeating Castelvecchio with ease and putting himself in the Golden Slipper picture. That race rated very highly, with Talented running 4.9 lengths above benchmark. She has had that look down the straight and has drawn in the right part of the track (barrier 12) and should get all the favours for Luke Currie.
Result: 3rd

Race 7 - 4:30pm Seppelt Wines March Stakes (1400m)
I’m happy to be with an ex-Weir galloper PLEIN CIEL. He never missed a place from three first-up runs for Darren Weir, which is impressive as Weir wasn’t noted for getting his horses to fire fresh. Now with Anthony Freedman, he looks ready to go first-up with the blinkers on for the first time. He had the blinkers on him a trial at Cranbourne a fortnight ago and was outstanding. The trial was the quickest 1190m trial of the morning and he lead throughout to beat his former stablemate Haripour by two-lengths untouched. The stable is flying at the moment, with nine winners ane 17 placegetters from their last 50 starts, with a positive ROI of 45.2 percent. With Mark Zahra on, there looks to be enough intent to back him at double-figure odds.
Result: Unplaced



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Flemington Tips May 25 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Jackson Oldham previews racing from Flemington on Saturday and gives his best bets for the meeting.

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