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Flemington Tips March 16 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 15 Mar 2019
  • 3 to 4 best bets for Flemington each meeting.

Flemington racing

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Flemington? 

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Flemington Tips - March 16


Race 2 - 1:20PM Autumn Trophy (1400m)
When I was doing the form for this race, I was really trying to find Write Your Name. I love the horse and I thought his first-up fourth when three-wide with no cover was terrific behind Mr Quickie and Age Of Chivalry in what looks a hot form race. I will be saving on him but the horse I found was the Hawkes runner OUTRAGEOUS. His exposed form is lengths better than this field, he broke his maiden as a $1.40 favourite defeating Tin Hat before running third, beaten a length behind El Dorado Dreaming and Oohood in the Group 1 Sires’ Produce. He ran nice fourths in Group races behind the likes of Aramayo and Leonardo Da Hinchi last preparation before failing in the Caulfield Guineas. The important thing to note is, he has since been gelded and looks a far more professional horse, judging by his recent jumpout at Flemington. It was a slick piece of work and he was given a nice hitout, going to the line with Le Romain. I’m happy to take on the favourite Jumbo Ozaki, his two wins have been stylish but he times haven’t been anything special and I would need to see him produce a figure before backing him as as $2.60 favourite in a race of this class.

Race 3 - 1:55pm TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (1200m)
I usually don’t like betting into two-year-old races, especially down the straight before seeing them in the mounting yard but I’m making an exception, putting the Peter & Paul Snowden-trained TALENTED as my best bet of the day at Flemington. The daughter of Snitzel stepped out at Geelong on debut and won impressively, running the fastest last 600m of the meeting to defeat La Tene, who won the Group 2 Sires’ Produce last Saturday. She went to the Talindert Stakes (1100m) down the straight last start and was very heavily backed, running second behind Microphone who has since franked that form, winning the Inglis Millenium defeating Castelvecchio with ease and putting himself in the Golden Slipper picture. That race rated very highly, with Talented running 4.9 lengths above benchmark. She has had that look down the straight and has drawn in the right part of the track (barrier 12) and should get all the favours for Luke Currie.

Race 7 - 4:30pm Seppelt Wines March Stakes (1400m)
I’m happy to be with an ex-Weir galloper PLEIN CIEL. He never missed a place from three first-up runs for Darren Weir, which is impressive as Weir wasn’t noted for getting his horses to fire fresh. Now with Anthony Freedman, he looks ready to go first-up with the blinkers on for the first time. He had the blinkers on him a trial at Cranbourne a fortnight ago and was outstanding. The trial was the quickest 1190m trial of the morning and he lead throughout to beat his former stablemate Haripour by two-lengths untouched. The stable is flying at the moment, with nine winners ane 17 placegetters from their last 50 starts, with a positive ROI of 45.2 percent. With Mark Zahra on, there looks to be enough intent to back him at double-figure odds.

Previous Flemington Tips:


March 9

Race 1 - 12:15pm The KIIS 101.1 Jase & PJ Sprint (1000m)
First-up in Australia, I’m with the Peter & Paul Snowden-trained KING OF YULONG. This horse is clearly the class horse in the field, contesting Group One races in his last two starts. Three starts ago he won the Group 2 Richmond Stakes (1207m) at Goodwood, defeating a horse called Marie's Diamond who went onto contest the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Horses that have raced in the Richmond Stakes in previous years included the likes of Jungle Cat. I really liked King Of Yulong in his two recent jumpouts, he was given a nice hitout to win the jumpout at Werribee on February 18 and followed that up with a quiet maintenance gallop at Flemington on March 1. With Mark Zahra on board from barrier 10, he looks a great bet to start the day. 
Note: If you’re looking to watch his replays, his former name was Land Force. 
Result: 4th

Race 4 - 2:05pm Incognitus Stakes (1100m)
Rewind and play it again, I’m keen on another Yulong horse first-up in Australia. I was really taken with the three-year-old colt YULONG YUHENG at the jumpouts. A former winner of the Listed Curragh Stakes (1006m) he really impressed me at Flemington on March 1. He showed nice speed to lead the jumpout and kept speeding away to win by four-lengths untouched in the second-fastest time of the 14 jumpouts. The horse left in his wake was the extremely talented Greyworm who lines up as favourite in race two. I really like him first-up over 1100m, as he doesn’t look a geniune 1200m-1400m horse but first-up over 1000m could’ve been too sharp. I’m happy to lay Sunsets Watch. Looking at his two runs at Moonee Valley when he beat Ringerdingding, he got the set-up to win on both occasions and really looked to kick hard off the bend. My gut feeling is that he won’t love the straight racing. The Matt Laurie-trained Bleu Roche has had feet issues in the past and was lame again at Moonee Valley last start in the Typhoon Tracy. I love the horse but I really can’t trust her at this stage.
Note: If you’re looking to watch is replays, his former name was Indigo Balance.
Result: Unplaced

Race 6 - 3:15pm Seppelt Wines Newmarket Handicap (1200m)
I’m happy to be with EDUARDO again. I was on him in the Oakleigh Plate and it was a huge run. He sat three-wide no cover on a hot speed set up by Nature Strip. He went 10.6 lengths quicker benchmark for the first 500m of the race and when the other speed horses in the race including Nature Strip were folding, he was still kicking out in front. The positive sign for me was, despite his tough run, he still ran 2.5 lengths faster than Group One average for his final 600m.. That’s the sign of a class horse. My small knock is, he is second-up, two weeks between runs off a gut buster so there is a chance he’s flat but at $10 I’m happy to find out. 
Result: Unplaced

March 2


Race 3 - 11:55am ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap (1000m)
The Mick Price-trained SHE’S SO HIGH looks very hard to beat. First-up last preparation in the listed Moomba Plate (1100m) down the straight, she bolted in defeating Regimen and Twilight Song. She ran the quickest last 200m (11.19s) and 400m (22.00s) on a day that included Brave Smash and Merchant Navy flashing home behind Redkirk Warrior in a Newmarket Handicap. She then beat home the likes of Viridine and Nature Strip in the Group 2 Euclase Stakes and won the Group 3 Proud Miss Stakes (1200m). She has had a jumpout and a trial leading up to this so I have no doubts she will be fit enough to win. I blackbooked her from her Caulfield jumpout, as she led the jumpout under no riding and worked under her own steam, winning the jumpout in the quickest time of the morning. She went to Cranbourne a week later and won that trial, again under no riding. She should get a nice tow into the race from I Am Someone and sprint home too powerfully late. I’m happy to be against Kemono, the horse obviously has ability and reports from the Maher & Eustace stable is, he’s low flying. My concern is, he was down to run in the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) last week with the blinkers on. He was scratched, comes to Flemington over 1000m and doesn’t have the blinkers on. 
Result (1st - $2.60)

Race 4 - 12:25pm Mittys Handicap (1100m)
The horse I found at huge odds here was the top weight ALL ABOUT NICCI. She went a listed race in Adelaide at the end of last preparation and performed really well, finishing third behind Casino Wizard and Petrelle who are both performed in Melbourne. All About Nicci vertically crossed the line with Petrelle, who started single figures in a Group race down the straight at Flemington over the Carnival. She started shorter than the likes of Booker, Divine Quality and Snitty Kitty. Petrelle would likely be a clear favourite in this race so it seems strange that All About Nicci is such a long price. I’m a fan of taking on most country trainers in Melbourne but Kym Hann is not one of them. He is a very good trainer without terrific horses. His strikerate in country Victoria last season was over 20 percent which is elite. At upwards of 30/1, I’m happy to play each-way All About Nicci.
Result (unplaced)

Race 5 - 1:00pm Seppelt Wines Plate (1400m)
I couldn’t see as much between Age Of Chivalry and BRILLIANT CHOICE as the market suggests. I had Brilliant Choice priced around the $3.50 off the back of his win over the coming Group One winner Nakeeta Jane last preparation. He broke his maiden status against Nakeeta Jane at Kensington in September and has been gelded since. He returned at Moonee Valley a fortnight ago and was $2.90 out to $3.40 and he looked to have plenty of improvement from the mounting yard. The fact that he still has plenty of improvement made his victory even more impressive, as he absorbed early pressure and still kicked away on the home turn and won very impressively, running 3.9 lengths above the benchmark. Jack Martin to Dwayne Dunn is a positive and he maps very well from barrier five, either sitting outside of Age Of Chivalry or one pair back. 
Result (3rd)

Race 8 - 2:45PM Australian Guineas (1600 METRES)


February 16

Race 1 - 12:35pm DeRucci Trophy (1600m)
I all but declared REMEMBER THE NAME a moral last start at Sandown, saying I didn’t know how they could possibly beat her. My question was quickly answered, as the leader and eventual winner French Girl went 24.9 lengths slower than the class benchmark to the 600m. Although D.Oliver had her in a nice spot one-out and one-back, she had absolutely no chance of winning and did well to get as close as she did. Fourth-up last preparation she ran over this track and distance in Open grade and ran fourth behind Mr Money Bags, Mount Kilcoy and Gaulois.Oliver has ridden Remember The Name at his last 7 runs and does ride Mountain Breath and although that could be taken as a lead, I’m convinced it’s just because Mountain Breath will reach greater heights over the Autumn.  I love the map for Remember The Name. Amortensia and Ocean Deep should provide enough speed for James McDonald to get the run of the race one pair back from barrier 6. Mountain Breath does look the obvious danger, I found her from the Jumpouts before her Australian debut and noted that she looks a 2000m+ horse. At her debut at MV over, they walked early and it didn’t give her much hope but I loved her attack on the line the final furlong. She ran the quickest last 200m of the race and will be suited stepping straight up to the mile and getting to Flemington. I’d suggest saving on her. 
Result (unplaced)

Race 3 - 1:45pm Singapore Turf Club Trophy (1200m)
I found it hard to go past the Danny O’Brien-trained ORDER OF COMMAND. He loves the straight track here at Flemington and boasts two seconds behind the likes of Nature Strip and Brave Song last preparation. He has a very strong SP profile, starting $5.00 against Nature Strip, $3.40 against Brave Song, $2.25 against Demolition and #$2.30 against Chauffeur. His wins three starts ago against Siricus Suspect rated 11.7 lengths above the class benchmark, if he runs up to that, he’ll go very close to winning this. His last start effort was disappointing but I didn’t think it was awful. He ran the second-fastest 600-400m split of the race and looked to be building momentum before just being baulked for a run at the furlong. I think the slight step up from 1100m to 1200m will suit. In his six starts down the Flemington straight, he has never drawn outside barrier six. I love that he’s drawn barrier 10 and D.Oliver sticks with him. I’m confident the winners will be coming down the outside in the straight track races and I’m confident he can finish over the top of them.
Result (unplaced)

Race 6 - 3:30pm The Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy (1600m)
At the price, I’m happy to make MR MONEY BAGS a bet in this race. His figures at his two runs prior to last start were huge. Three starts ago he bolted in at Flemington over 1400m, running eight-lengths above benchmark defeating Kazio, Haunted and All Too Huiying. Two starts ago he was terrific in the Listed Chester Manifold Stakes behind Manolo Blahniq. The argument could be made that he was slightly unlucky and probably should’ve finished closer. His figure of +11.2 lengths above benchmark puts him right at the top of the market here. Looking at his sectional times from his last start failure at Caulfield, it paints a fascinating picture. From the 600m-400m he ran 11.32s which was only the 7th fastest of the race, he then ran his 400m-200m in 11.82s which was the slowest of the race. He then ran his final 200m in 11.70s which was the third-fastest of the race. I’m putting it down to the fact he simply didn’t handle Caulfield and crabbed around the home turn. He gets back to Flemington, the scene of his best runs and stays at a mile. His last start over a mile here at Flemington he beat the likes of Mount Kilcoy, Gaulois and Remember The Name. He maps to get a nice run midfield from barrier six and I think he should start near favouritsm.
Result (3rd)

Race 8 - 4:50PM Black Caviar Lightning (1000 METRES)


January 19


Race 2 - 1:35pm Voting Opens Monday for All-Star Mile (2500m)
This looks the perfect race for the Danny O’Brien-trained LYCURGUS. He has been good without winning this preparation and I’d suggest it’s this race or never for him. Looking at his preparation, he was tremendous second-up at Flemington, as he traded $1.08 in play at the 200m mark but just ran out of fitness late to finish third. He pulled up sore third-up at The Valley in what was, a complete forgive run. I was with him last start over this track and distance and although he had worked a little early, Ollie had him Outside the leader and I thought he was a great winning chance. What I didn’t account for was Etymology turning into Phar Lap over a staying trip. He won easily and not surprisingly, has won a listed race since. There is absolutely no speed in this race and D.Oliver can control the race from the front. He looks very hard to beat.
Result (unplaced)

Race 8 - 5:20PM Bitalli Handicap (1800m)
I don’t like to Jockey blame but gee whiz, LAURE ME IN should’ve won his last two starts. From barrier 12 over 1600m at Flemington, Laure Me In somehow ended up last on the fence at the 800m and then forced 10-wide at the 400m to start his run. He still looked like he was the winner at the furlong but just found Diplomatic Jack who had the better run. I’m confident he wins that race 95/100 times but enough talking through my pocket. His sectionals were outstanding, running the fourth fastest last 200m of the meeting and the ninth fastest last 400m of the meeting. Two starts ago he should’ve beaten Silentz at Caulfield. He drops 2kg on his last start run, goes barrier 12 to barrier 3 and Chris Caserta to Luke Currie. He is a bet at any price above $2.10. 
Result (1st - $2.45)

Race 9 - 5:55pm Victorian Owner Gold Card Handicap (1200m)
The Mick Price-trained LANGHRO is a horse different horse since being gelded at the end of 2017. The lightly-raced six-year-old showed plenty of potential at the trials and jumpouts early in career but was too much of a colt to put it together on raceday. He returned with a nice jumpout at Caulfield before his first-up run. He was big drifter when he returned on Boxing Day ($4.40-$7.50) as the big punters stepped into Star Fall. He raced keenly in the early stages and still wanted to do a bit wrong, flashing home for second behind Star Fall who has since travelled to Sydney and won impressively. He will be fitter second-up and Mick Price has suggested that 1200m will be more suitable. He drops 7.5kg and maps well from barrier six for Dwayne Dunn. I have a big opinion of this horse and I’m confident he will be going close.
Result (3rd)

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Flemington Tips March 16 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Jackson Oldham previews racing from Flemington on Saturday, March 16, and gives his best bets for the meeting.

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