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Flemington Tips July 20 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 15 Jul 2019
  • 2 to 3 best bets for Flemington each meeting.

Flemington racing

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Flemington? 

Our form analyst gives you their expert racing tips for Victorian racing each weekend including Flemington - the home of the iconic Melbourne Cup.

See our free Flemington tips below:

Flemington Tips - July 20

Check back on Friday to see our updated best bets.

Previous Flemington Tips:

July 6

Race 1 - 11:45am Leilani Series Final (1400m)
The James Cummings-trained Organza looks very short in the market and I’ll be happy to play around her. I’m with the five-year-old mare EL QUESTRO who finally looks to be putting it all together with two impressive victories this preparation. She put a near career PB on the board first-up at Sandown, running 5.7 lengths above benchmark and winning by a length despite being $21 out to $26 in betting. She ran the ninth-fastest last 600m of the meeting and the fifth-fastest last 800m of the meeting. She was heavily support last start at Sandown over 1300m, being backed from $5.50 into $4.20 late in betting. She sat close to a slow early tempo of 8.9 lengths below benchmark to the 600m and bolted away to win by two-lengths, running the fifth-fastest last 200m and 400m of the meeting. The only concern for me is Nikita McLean sticks from barrier two. She has had only three winners from her last 50 rides and has had 108 rides in Metro Melbourne over the last 12 months for just six winners and a negative profit on turnover of 23.8 percent. If Craig Williams or Damien Oliver was riding this horse I would be unloaded but it will still be a decent bet for me at the current $5.50 quote. 
Result (2nd - $1.40 to Place)

Race 5 - 2:10pm Taj Rossi Series Final (1600m)
I thought the $2.10 was short enough but the Patrick Payne-trained RUBISAKI looked a standout. She smashed the clock on debut at Seymour, running 7.5 lengths above the maiden benchmark, whilst being the best rated horse on the meeting and running the quickest last 200m and 400m of the day. She came to Flemington last start and was $9.00 into $4.40 and was winning the race a long way out. She got a beautiful run in transit and exploded away once clear at the 300m, running 6.6 lengths above benchmark for her final 600m and an overall figure of nine-lengths above benchmark, which is an outstanding figure for a two-year-old. She has shown she can win races off a slow tempo and a fast tempo and looks extremely dynamic. She is in the right stable, as trainer Patrick Payne is currently airborne. He has trained 15 winners from his last 50 runners with a positive ROI of 67.3 percent. She has options from barrier five and barring bad luck, she should be going very close. 
Result (2nd - $1.30 to Place)

Race 6 - 2:50pm The Mahogany Challenge Final (2500m)
Most of these horses looks pretty well exposed, with 10 of the 12 runners in the race coming through either the Caulfield race over 2000m last weekend or one of two races at Sandown in the past three weeks. I don’t rate the form from those races, even though that Caulfield race rated well on the PuntingForm data, with Dogmatic recording the best last start figure of the race at 13.6 lengths above benchmark, he got the race shape to do so with the leader and winner Tavirun going 14.8 lengths above benchmark to the 600m, setting the race up to be run in quick time. The horses from that race, Dogmatic, Predecessor, Igniter and Peace Brother all look limited and I’m looking for some different form with NOT A SINGLE CENT. He ran well first-up here at Flemington behind Orcein and put in another good performance again behind Declares War, running the third-fastest last 200m, 400m and 600m of the race. He stepped up from 2000m to 2400m third-up in the Queensland Derby and I thought he was finishing off nicely into sixth behind Mr Quickie. I thought his run last start at Randwick was forgivable, as he was taking on the older horses on a Heavy 10 track and didn’t have the smoothest run in transit. He will enjoy getting back to Flemington and he has the perfect platform for 2500m, with two prior 2400m, whilst most of these horses are stepping up from 2000m. 
Result (1st - $6.50)

June 22

Race 1 - 11:40am Gippsland Region Handicap (1400m)
I’m very keen to stick with ST EDWARD’S CROWN after her impressive victory down the straight over 1100m here at Flemington last start. She went in my blackbook two starts ago after her terrific second behind Sebrakate. She hit a flat spot between the 400m-200m but really picked up late and savaged the line, running the eighth-fastest last 200m of the meeting. Only the likes of Order Of Command, Milwaukee, Bel Sonic, Fidelia, Manolo Blahniq, Admiral’s Joker and Parsifal ran a quicker final furlong. I was keen to follow her from that run, thinking that 1400m will be perfect. Instead, she dropped back from 1200m to 1100m and for that reason, I didn’t tip her last start when she won very impressively, defeating Lesage and Witchfulthinking, running an overall figure of 6.4 lengths above becnhmark which is the equal-best figure in this race. If she can run that figure over 1100m, I can’t wait to see what she’ll do around a bend over 1400m. She goes from D.Thornton to M.Zahra and will get the speed on to suit with the likes of Spirit Medium and The Astrologist both likely to roll forward. The $6.50 on offer looks a more than reasonable price.
Result (Unplaced)

Race 2 - 12:15pm The Murray Region Handicap (1400m)
I don’t usually get involved in these mares races but this looks the perfect setup for Phillip Stokes-trained FLYING KRUPT. She started $14 in the Group 3 Proud Miss Stakes (1400m) two starts ago at Morphettville and I thought her run Lady Cosmology was really good to come from near last, she ran the second-fastest 600m-400m split of the race and the third-fastest 400m-200m split of the race. She got every possible chance over this track and distance last start and did look the winner at the 100m but was just swamped by two handy mares, Kings Brook and Mrs O’Malley late. The most important thing here is the jockey change. Flying Krupt goes J.Holder two starts ago, to K.Crowther and now gets C.Williams. The last time Williams rode this horse, she won at Caulfield defeating Lady Cromac and Remember The Name. Willo is locked into winning another Jockey Premiership and this is the time of year to back him, he has had 11 winners from his last 50 rides for a ROI of 11.8 percent. Flying Krupt maps perfectly from barrier seven and will get every possible chance. 
Result (Unplaced)

Race 4 - 1:25pm Great Ocean Road Handicap (2520m)
The value in the race looks to be the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained AZURO. He was $61 into $41 last start in the Andrew Ramsden (2800m) and had the blinkers on for the first time. He didn’t really settle in the run and wanted to get on heels coming around the first bend, Jye McNeil elected to take off around the 1300m and he was forced to loop the field and make a long sustained run off a strong tempo that was 10.8 lengths above benchmark to the 600m. I thought his effort to hit the front at the top of the straight and still battle on to finish sixth, beaten 4.7 lengths behind Steel Prince and Surprise Baby was outstanding. The drop back from 2800m to 2500m gives me hope that he will settle better in the blinkers and he drops 4.5kg which must count for something in a staying race. At $8.00 he looks the play in the race.
Result (Scratched)

June 8

Race 4 - 1:25pm Ken Cox Handicap (1000m)
The Tom Hughes-trained LEITER is a horse with serious ability and he looks an outstanding bet at $3.00 here. He towelled up Bam’s On Fire on debut at Bendigo, bolting in by 4.8 lengths. He then went to Caulfield and in my opinion, Lachie King went too slow on him early and although he looked like having every chance, I believe he was unsuited and still only just missed behind the ill-fated Columbus Circle and beat home Propelle who has those Bam’s On Fire and William Thomas formlines. The last Flemington meeting was a fortnight ago and it was a huge advantage to be on the inside in the straight races. Leiter is drawn barrier one and the speed on should actually help, with Lachie King forced to roll along which will suit this horse. I’m confident he wins.
Result (3rd)

Race 7 - 3:25pm Rod Johnson Handicap (1800m)
I might be going off a run early but I thought the Chris Waller-trained DARK PEARL was a perfect hidden gem run last start at Flemington. He was seven-weeks between runs and was 2400m back to 1800m, he only beat one runner home and was last almost all of the way. Ollie was soft on him to the line, riding him only hands and heels the last 150m. He ran the 11th-fastest 600m-400m split of the race, eighth-fastest 400m-200m and fourth-fastest last 200m of the race. If you watch the replay and look past the post, he attacks the line, runs through it and is easily up to fifth only 100m past the post He will be fitter, should bounce up that run and we are getting a nice price to find out. The negatives are, he stays at 1800m and goes D.Oliver to D.Thornton but is still worth a small each-way investment. 
Result (unplaced)

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Flemington Tips July 20 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Jackson Oldham previews racing from Flemington on Saturday and gives his best bets for the meeting.

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