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Flemington Tips September 14 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Aaron Hamilton in Free Tips 12 Sep 2019
  • 2 to 3 best bets for Flemington each meeting.

Flemington racing

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Flemington? 

Our form analyst gives you their expert racing tips for Victorian racing each weekend including Flemington - the home of the iconic Melbourne Cup.

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Flemington Tips - September 14

Team Williams and trainer Liam Howley saddle up four runners in the opening event where DOUGLAS MACARTHUR may be their best chance despite not being the favoured runner. The son of Galileo resumed from a two-year break and was far from disgraced finishing 3.8 lengths from Guizot over 1600m at Caulfield. He stepped up to 2040m at The Valley last time and was caught three deep without cover for the trip, and his run really impressed. He dropped out on the bend as was going to run last, but he started to surge again late and passed a few runners near the line. I think he’s looking for this trip already, and with a softer run in transit, and Ben Melham being familiar with him now, he can run a big race.
Super Seth ran his final 200m in 11.36 when first-up this campaign and that was the quickest final split of his career. Interestingly, only Lyre has matched that sprint, but the Leon Macdonald and Andrew Gluyas-trained DALASAN has run 11.28 and 10.98 in his first campaign, and he clearly has a strong turn of foot. His first-up win over subsequent Memsie Stakes winner Scales Of Justice in the Spring Stakes (1200m) was very impressive, and it rated 11 lengths above all benchmark (BM) which is easily the strongest last start BM figure in the race. He maps well here and should be able to follow Lyre into the race before peeling late and finishing best. 
Race 6 - 3:30PM LET'S ELOPE STAKES (1400 METRES)
FIDELIA is unbeaten in three starts at Flemington and she really caught the eye with a slashing but somewhat unlucky run first-up behind Pippie. She went back from barrier 9 and tried to angle out and build momentum, but with nothing eventuating, regular rider Jye McNeil ducked back to the inside and started to make a run. Gaps were closing and the mare had to switch course a couple of times, and with clear running she may have made things interesting. She looks to have come back in great order and should be better suited over 1400m back to Flemington.

Previous Tips:

August 10

Race 5 - 1:55pm VRC Member Jeffery Overington Handicap (2000m)
The Kevin Corstens-trained TWILIGHT RUN has serious ability and he looks well suited dropping back to Benchmark 78 grade, from open company. I thought his win two starts ago here at Flemington was outstanding, running an overall figure of 5.6 lengths above benchmark and also recording the fastest last 600m of the race to defeat the likes of Phaistos, Howlowcanyougo and Killavalley. The raceshape was against last start at The Valley. First and second along the fence (Inverloch & Masculino) ran the quinella, while Twilight Run was forced to make a long, swooping run out wide and I thought his effort to run sixth, running 6.6 lengths above benchmark for his final 600m was outstanding. He has the 2040m run under his belt, gets back to Flemington,  is on the seven-day back-up, goes Beau Mertens to John Allen and maps perfectly from barrier six. There are plenty of ticks and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start shorter than $3.00 come jump time. I thought value at odds might be Rebellious Lord. He is James Winks from barrier 18, so I doubt he is well backed and could start $30+. He was completely unsuited last start at Caulfield, as the leaders dropped out quickly and he hit the front far too soon. He ran the fastest 400m-200m split of the race and battled away late. 
Result (unplaced)

Race 8 - 3:55pm Aurie's Star Handicap (1200m)
I’m more than happy to forgive SESAR for his ‘disappointing’ run in the Bletchingly Stakes and back him again here. Although the run seemed poor on first watch, I thought it was actually full of merit. He didn’t parade well and was out the gate, from $2.00 to $2.60 on betfair at jump time. He was restrained early from M.Walker and overraced for the middle part of the race. He ran 0.2 lengths above benchmark to the 600m, which was 3.2 lengths slower than he ran to the 600m first-up at Randwick. If he had’ve run the same sectionals to the 600m that he ran first-up, he would’ve only been 1.3 lengths behind leader Jungle Edge. He then didn’t handle the Caulfield turn, before balancing up and running the third-fastest last 200m of the race. The raceshape didn’t help his cause, as the first five horses in running at the 600m were the first five horses home. Despite this, he still ran his last 600m six-lengths above benchmark, which was less than a length slower than his last 600m first-up, of 6.8 lengths above benchmark. The jockey change from M.Walker to D.Dunn is a positive and D.Dunn’s riding style should suit this horse. He goes from Caulfield to Flemington and strikes a weaker race than what he contested last start. I’m happy to bet at the $4.60.
Result (3rd - $1.90 to Place)

Race 9 - 4:35pm VRC Member Angela Kennedy Handicap (1720m)
I’ve been waiting for this horse to get over 1600m or further and he finally goes third-up, I’m speaking of the Tony McEvoy-trained LAURE ME IN. I thought he opened far too short first-up at Flemington over 1200m, he wasn’t ready from the yard and he showed, as he just plodded away. He showed terrific improved from his first-up run to his second-up run. He ran 3.4 lengths above benchmark first-up and 10 lengths above benchmark second-up. He ran only the 13th-fastest 600m-400m split of the race, then the fastest 400m-200m split and the fourth-fastest last 200m. That was still over 1400m which is an unsuitable distance and he hit still the line with Cryptic Jewel. Laure Me In looks perfectly suited at Flemington over 1720m, third-up. Barrier one is the concern, as he will likely be back on the fence but that query is built into the price, as we are getting near double figures. Looking at his opposition, Dr Drill is in form and obviously must be respected but gets Glue on shoes on first time? Kentucky Breeze is racing in career best form and comes into the race with the best last start figure, 11.8 lengths above benchmark. Ballet Master was blessed last start and Satori is a bit of a plodder. I thought the danger could be Humbolt Castle, who showed a good return first-up for 150 days. He ran the ninth-fastest last 200m of the meeting and 15th-fastest last 400m of the meeting behind Ballet Master last start and will be improved second-up over 1600m. 
Result (unplaced)

July 20

Race 2 - 12:25pm Flemington Event Staff Handicap (1200m)
The Godolphin runner TANIKO is a duel acceptor for both Flemington and Randwick, if he takes his place at Flemington I’m confident he runs well. The four-year-old daughter of Medaglia D'Oro is often a low percentage betting proposition because of her get back and run on style but she does get a good set-up here with the likes of Moor Wanted, Wind Force, Sheriff John Stone and even Barthelona likely to ensure a good early tempo. I doubt she is as effective on a Heavy track but I still thought her last start seventh at Rosewill was terrific and her effort to close off behind River Bird (who has won again since) was full of merit. She really hit the line, running the second-fastest 400m-200m split of the race and the fourth-fastest last 200m of the race in the worst part of the track. This is a perfect ride for Dwayne Dunn, who can pick his way through the field from barrier six and the race drops away quickly after the leading three or four chances. If Taniko races in Sydney then Sirius Suspect is clearly the horse to beat. He has clearly the best figures in the race, running 11.2 lengths above benchmark at his last start in the Listed All Victorian Sprint Final (1200m) when fourth behind Malibu Style and Milwaukee. That figure is the best figure of any horse in this race over the last two years and although he rises 6kg, he drops back from Listed grade to a very winnable Benchmark 78 and maps well from barrier four. 
Result (scratched and won at Randwick)

Race 3 - 1:00pm Byerley Handicap (1800m)
This is a late season two-year-old race over 1800m so I was expecting this to be a no bet race but the speed map leads me to suggest the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained ECHO LAD is a good bet at the current price. There looks to be no speed at all on paper and he should get an uncontested lead and be rated perfectly from S.Baster if he mind is on racing and not Australian Ninja Warriors. The only other horse who I have mapped wanting to sit better than midfield is the Tony McEvoy-trained runner Marndarra.Echo Lad loved the step-up from 1300m to 1600m last start at Warwick Farm and Blake Shinn controlled the race from the front, running 3.6 lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m and zipping home 2.7 lengths above benchmark for the final 600m for an easy 2.5 length victory. He was strong enough to the line to suggest the rise to 1800m will be a positive and although I’m not convinced he is the best horse in the race, this is a speed map orientated bet. 
Result (4th)

Race 5 - 2:15pm RMBL Investments Rising Stars Final (1400m)
The Allison Sheehan-trained EL QUESTRO was a moral beaten last start on Flemington Finals Day when I declared her the best bet of the day, so I have to butter up again here. She kicked up for the first 600m and it looked like Niketa was going to hold the front before handed up and sat behind Pria Eclipse, which I found to be a strange move. She was stuck behind runners in the straight, while the winner Miss Mandito was building momentum down the outside. When clear, she flew home and just missed, running her last 200m in 11.44s which was clearly the quickest last furlong of the race. She ran the fifth-fastest last 200m and tenth-fastest last 400m of the day, with some very handy sprinters in the meeting. This is the Rising Stars Final so it’s an all appearance race and Chelsea Hall takes the ride. Hall is really struggling, with just one win from her last 50 rides and her record at Flemington isn’t much better, with just one win from 21 rides at headquarters. That is an obvious negative but I’m still happy to have a bet.
Result (2nd - $2 to Place)

July 6

Race 1 - 11:45am Leilani Series Final (1400m)
The James Cummings-trained Organza looks very short in the market and I’ll be happy to play around her. I’m with the five-year-old mare EL QUESTRO who finally looks to be putting it all together with two impressive victories this preparation. She put a near career PB on the board first-up at Sandown, running 5.7 lengths above benchmark and winning by a length despite being $21 out to $26 in betting. She ran the ninth-fastest last 600m of the meeting and the fifth-fastest last 800m of the meeting. She was heavily support last start at Sandown over 1300m, being backed from $5.50 into $4.20 late in betting. She sat close to a slow early tempo of 8.9 lengths below benchmark to the 600m and bolted away to win by two-lengths, running the fifth-fastest last 200m and 400m of the meeting. The only concern for me is Nikita McLean sticks from barrier two. She has had only three winners from her last 50 rides and has had 108 rides in Metro Melbourne over the last 12 months for just six winners and a negative profit on turnover of 23.8 percent. If Craig Williams or Damien Oliver was riding this horse I would be unloaded but it will still be a decent bet for me at the current $5.50 quote. 
Result (2nd - $1.40 to Place)

Race 5 - 2:10pm Taj Rossi Series Final (1600m)
I thought the $2.10 was short enough but the Patrick Payne-trained RUBISAKI looked a standout. She smashed the clock on debut at Seymour, running 7.5 lengths above the maiden benchmark, whilst being the best rated horse on the meeting and running the quickest last 200m and 400m of the day. She came to Flemington last start and was $9.00 into $4.40 and was winning the race a long way out. She got a beautiful run in transit and exploded away once clear at the 300m, running 6.6 lengths above benchmark for her final 600m and an overall figure of nine-lengths above benchmark, which is an outstanding figure for a two-year-old. She has shown she can win races off a slow tempo and a fast tempo and looks extremely dynamic. She is in the right stable, as trainer Patrick Payne is currently airborne. He has trained 15 winners from his last 50 runners with a positive ROI of 67.3 percent. She has options from barrier five and barring bad luck, she should be going very close. 
Result (2nd - $1.30 to Place)

Race 6 - 2:50pm The Mahogany Challenge Final (2500m)
Most of these horses looks pretty well exposed, with 10 of the 12 runners in the race coming through either the Caulfield race over 2000m last weekend or one of two races at Sandown in the past three weeks. I don’t rate the form from those races, even though that Caulfield race rated well on the PuntingForm data, with Dogmatic recording the best last start figure of the race at 13.6 lengths above benchmark, he got the race shape to do so with the leader and winner Tavirun going 14.8 lengths above benchmark to the 600m, setting the race up to be run in quick time. The horses from that race, Dogmatic, Predecessor, Igniter and Peace Brother all look limited and I’m looking for some different form with NOT A SINGLE CENT. He ran well first-up here at Flemington behind Orcein and put in another good performance again behind Declares War, running the third-fastest last 200m, 400m and 600m of the race. He stepped up from 2000m to 2400m third-up in the Queensland Derby and I thought he was finishing off nicely into sixth behind Mr Quickie. I thought his run last start at Randwick was forgivable, as he was taking on the older horses on a Heavy 10 track and didn’t have the smoothest run in transit. He will enjoy getting back to Flemington and he has the perfect platform for 2500m, with two prior 2400m, whilst most of these horses are stepping up from 2000m. 
Result (1st - $6.50)

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Flemington Tips September 14 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Jackson Oldham previews racing from Flemington on Saturday and gives his best bets for the meeting.

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