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Geelong Tips October 23 - Two best bets for Geelong Cup Day

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 22 Oct 2019
  • Two best bets for Geelong Cup Day
Geelong

Midweek racing is at Geelong on Wednesday for Geelong Cup Day. It’s currently a Good 4 track for this nine-race program. I expect there is no disadvantage being on-speed but horses should be able to win from everywhere. There are plenty of unknowns in the Cup and I thought both Neufbosc and Dal Harraild were over the odds.

 

Race 3 - 1:35pm IGA Liquor BM70 Handicap (1200m)
I was keen to back the four-year-old gelding TOOLBAR first-up off a really nice jumpout at Burrumbeet but he just didn’t get his right set-up at The Valley. Meech rode him in the jumpout and went to the line under a hold, beating home other horses who were all under hard riding to keep in touch. I was interested to see that Meech wasn’t on him first-up at The Valley, with Lucinda Doodt taking the ride. It wasn’t a pretty ride from Doodt but in fairness to her, she probably didn’t have many other options from barrier nine. Seven of the eight winners on the night were either leading or running second at the 600m, so Doodt used Toolbar up and was three-wide on-speed. I thought his run to battle on to finish sixth was actually really good. Second-up lst preparation he ran a figure that was 6.8 lengths above the class benchmark when he bolted in at Kyneton, winning by 5.3 lengths. Linda Meech goes on here second-up and I’m keen to bet at nearly double-figure odds. 


Race 6 - 3:20pm Geelong Australia MCC Country Series Heat 6 VRC Trophy (1500m)
With respect to the Geelong Cup and Geelong Classic, this clearly looks the race of the day and a race I’m keen to bet into. I thought Impi was way too short at his current quote of $2.80 and I think that HARBOUR VIEWS will remain unbeaten. He showed he is a serious talent with three dominant victories last preparation, he resumed at Caulfield and was back/wide on a day where it was no disadvantage to be on-pace and closer to the fence. The race was run at a crawl, with the leaders running 15.8 lengths slower than class benchmark to the 600m and Harbour Views still blew them away, running the fastest last 200m and 400m of the meeting and he was the only horse to break 11-seconds for his final 200m (10.80s). He ran his last 400m 7.7 lengths above the class benchmark and if he produces that again here at Geelong, he wins.I respect Impi and he obviously looks to have talent but I priced him closer to $5.00 in this race. It will be fascinating to see the betting for this race and I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Harbour Views start $1.50 or $2.00. His SP profile is elite and he has been well backed in every start ($1.90 into $1.75 last start at Caulfield) despite only an average parade. He hasn’t produced any huge figures yet and comes through a very slowly run race first-up. I’ll wait to back him closer to jump time and cop the shorter price if the syndicates do decide to launch at him.



Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)



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Geelong Tips October 23 - Two best bets for Geelong Cup Day

Midweek racing is at Geelong on Wednesday for Geelong Cup Day. It’s currently a Good 4 track for this nine-race program. I expect there is no disadvantage being on-speed but horses should be able to win from everywhere. There are plenty of unknowns in the Cup and I thought both Neufbosc and Dal Harraild were over the odds.

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