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Kembla Grange Tips August 17 – Best bets and expert tips for Saturday

Aaron Hamilton in Free Tips 15 Aug 2019
  • Best bets for Kembla Grange each meeting.

Looking for tips on Saturday's racing from the Kembla Grange races? 

Our form analysts give you the best bets for a profitable day of punting at Kembla Grange, approximately 95km from Sydney and located along the Princes Highway at the foothills of the Illawarra Escarpment.

Racing takes place at Kembla Grange on alternate Saturday’s with the course boasting one of the best shaped racetracks in Australia which provides every horse its chance due to the long straight.

See our free weekly Kembla Grange selections below:

Kembla Grange Tips - August 17


Race 2 - 12:54PM ANSTO CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
NO EMOTION has been racing into good form and looks set to peak here. The son of Helmet showed good talent early with back-to-back wins in Victoria, but after a few disappointing runs this campaign, he was transferred from the Ellerton and Zahra stable to Moruya-based horsewoman Natalie Jarvis. Jockey Patrick Scorse went aboard and let him drop out and find his feet, and he seemed to appreciate that and hit the line strongly. Scorse weights in at 54kg and has carried 58 and 61kg at his last two starts aboard No Emotion, and despite going up slightly in class on Saturday, I like the fact he gets in with 54kg and carries no dead weight. Toroso is clearly the class galloper, but I’m hoping he’s vulnerable second-up against some rock-hard-fit gallopers. 

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Race 6 - 3:24PM TYNAN SUZUKI BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained NIEWAND caught the eye at the St Arnaud trials before finishing 5th in a strong Sale race behind Peidra who went on to win a BM70 at Sandown and is being touted as a Guineas contender. Neiwand then went to Casterton and scored an impressive 3.2-length victory over 1000m. This race looks perfect and he will just need a bit of luck from the tricky gate (9).

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Previous Tips:


August 3


Race 1 - 12:04PM NATIONAL JOCKEYS TRUST DAY 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1000 METRES)
Richard and Michael Freedman have found a great kick-off race for the speedy GALAXIAL. The two-year-old daughter of Deep Field has some serious speed and she put six lengths on her rivals in a recent barrier trial.  She was never asked for an effort and ran the quickest 900m heat time of the morning, and she should be able to lead all the way over 1000m on Saturday. 
Result (unplaced)

Race 8 - 4:29PM ILLAWARRA TURF CLUB STAYERS BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (2400 METRES)
We started with the Freedman brothers in Race 1, and that’s how we’ll end the day. Their emerging staying, HOTEL AMOUR, is by Americain and looks perfectly suited stepping up to 2400m following a maiden win over the mile and then a Class 1 victory over 2100m. John O’Shea’s De Valera posted a far superior BM figure last start going 7.8 lengths above BM when defeating Reliansive and Glamarama Girl, and although Hotel Amour only went 1.7 lengths above BM last start, he also defeated Glamarama Girl by 1.6 lengths. De Valera hasn’t raced for nearly four weeks which should also give the fitness advantage to Hotel Amour. 
Result (1st - $16)

July 20


Race 1 - 11:54AM EARLWOOD BARDWELL PARK RSL CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2000 METRES)
I was happy to oppose WAKA first-up following a poor trial performance, and I couldn’t believe she opened favourite and remained in the top spot before they jumped and she finished 5th of six runners. She went from 1300m to 1600m second-up, and while she loomed to win in the straight, she lacked fitness and that killer knockout. Blinkers come off for the first time as she steps up to 2000m, and she must be showing Cummings that she’s looking for further already. The only time she stepped out beyond the mile was in the Listed Connoisseur Stakes (1800m) at Flemington where she ran 7.4 lengths above benchmark (BM) which rated 12 lengths above her previous effort over 1400m. Having gone from 1400m to 1800m and running a personal best suggests she can do the same when going from 1600m to 2000m.
Result (1st - $2.50)

Race 2 - 12:29PM MARTIN MINETT CLAIMS PREP MAIDEN HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
Gwenda Markwell’s High Chaparral gelding, HAMOGANY, narrowly missed at his home track earlier this campaign but is at peak fitness fifth-up and looks hard to beat here. John O’Shea’s Parry Sound looms as a danger if he improves from his debut run, but on last start BM figures, Hamogany came home three lengths quicker in a longer race, and his fitness advantage should see him finishing best. 
Result (1st - $3.40)


June 15


Race 1 - 11:49AM STEWARTBROWN CHARTERED ACCOUNTANTS MAIDEN PLATE (1000 METRES)

This is a big drop in class for DREAM CIRCLE who comes from two $50,000 races in town to a 1000m maiden at Kembla. He disappointed at this track and trip three starts back but then ran a game 3rd behind Minted and California Salto who won by three lengths at Warwick Farm last start. Dream Circle had no luck over 1100m at Canterbury and was caught three deep without cover for the trip and weakened out of it to finish 2.5 lengths from Blazing Miss. He drops 2.5kg here and should prove hard to beat from up on the speed over the shorter trip.

Result (1st - $2.40)

Race 4 - 1:34PM PEOPLECARE HEALTH COVER CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

I’ve always had a bit of time for the Gary Portelli-trained EXCELTIC who finds a very winnable event and should be at peak fitness fourth-up. The Excelebration colt was 3rd behind Sylvia’s Mother last campaign and she resumes at Rosehill and has been the best backed runner early. Exceltic has been good in all three runs this campaign and should be breaking through here with even luck. 

Result (3rd)


June 1

Race 1 - 11:36AM ILLAWARRA TURF CLUB BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
REDAZZITY meets Kiss The Bride 1kg better at the weights for beating him last start, and fourth-up he should have plenty of upside still. Mayaman split the pair and was a winner over Just Schillin' the start before and has subsequently finished runner-up to the super-impressive Pauldron who won for us on Monday. Redazzity came from last on the turn to score last start, and the step up to 2000m looks ideal for a horse with his racing style. He does have to prove himself at the trip, but he’s certainly the one to beat if he runs it right out. 
Result (unplaced)

Race 8 - 4:01PM KEMBLA GRANGE MAIDEN PLATE (1500 METRES)
The Bjorn Baker-trained SHE’S IDEEL took every inch of the Goulburn straight to wind up on debut but just failed to catch Oksal who had been runner-up in her two previous starts. My notes straight after the race where ‘She’s Ideel needs a mile next time’ and while she doesn’t quite step up to the mile, she jumps from 1300m to 1500m and that’s clearly beneficial for this Dundeel filly. Chad Lever is likely to let her balance up at the rear before getting to the outside and charging home over the top of them. 
Result (Scratched)


February 9


Race 1 - 1:14PM ILLAWARRA TURF CLUB CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (2000 METRES)
Heroic Fighter was beaten home by HOTEL AMOUR on debut but then won last start while Hotel Amour was finishing at a rate of knots for 3rd place. Despite Heroic Fighter having more upside, I think Hotel Amour looks best placed with a 2.5kg weight swing and longer Kembla straight. The Americain gelding is fifth-up from a spell and was having his first run in a month last time, so he should be at absolute peak fitness. Uber Lux and Systus are at the same stage of their campaigns and loom as dangers, but I think Hotel Amour has the better turn of foot and that will make all the difference if they go at a leisurely tempo here. 
Result (scratched)

Race 7 - 4:54PM SHANE EADES TRANSPORT CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
We landed a great result with FASTNET CYCLONE scoring for us a fortnight ago at $14, and I think still think the French-import has plenty of upside. He’s won up to 2400m and is only third-up over a mile which looks perfect. He came from well back last start to score a last stride victory over 1500m, and he’s drawn the inside gate for the third consecutive time. I can’t see us getting juicy odds again but I really like how this horse has returned and he’s nowhere near his top yet. 
Result (2nd)


January 19


Race 5 - 3:24PM KEMBLA GRANGE ESTATE CUP CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
Looking to take on Resonare who will most likely be installed as favourite following two runs this campaign including a last start 3rd behind Fuchu. He’s only won one from 15 and disappointed at this track and trip when third-up in a previous campaign. FASTNET CYCLONE improved significantly when second-up last preparation, and he impressed at his first run back this time in where he chased hard but lacked fitness in the final 100m and finished 2nd to Trumbo who has been in good form. He should balance up a few pairs back from the inside gate, and if Adrian Layt can weave a passage through along the inside, he should be finishing off strong. 
Result (1st - $14)

Race 6 - 4:04PM WESTERN EARTH MOVING MAIDEN PLATE (1500 METRES)
I’m sticking with RUSSIAN ROMEO after a disappointing effort last start where he was slow to begin and never really got into it. He put in a poor run second-up in Melbourne and then should have won third-up when finishing 2nd to Real Success. First-up in NSW, he led but weakened late to finish two lengths from Ljungberg, and that looks like really strong form. Last start he just plugged away, and he seems like a horse looking for a longer trip. Trainers Ciaron Maher and David Eustace step the son of Smart Missile up to 1500m, and he should be looking to go forward from the outside gate (20). If he can get a midrace breather, he’ll prove hard to catch.
Result (scratched)



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Kembla Grange Tips August 17 – Best bets and expert tips for Saturday

Aaron Hamilton previews Kembla Grange racing and provides his best bets for Saturday.

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