No spam ever. Unsubscribe in one click. By submitting your email address, you indicate your consent to receiving email marketing messages from us.

Moonee Valley Tips December 13 – Expert best bets for The Valley

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 8 Dec 2019
  • Expert tips for the weekend best bets for Moonee Valley.
Moonee Valley Racecourse

Looking for expert tips and best bets for racing at Moonee Valley? Our form analysts pick out their best chances for racing at The Valley. 

Moonee Valley is widely-recognised for its short home-straight of only 173m, making it the shortest of any course in Australia. The Valley track stages around 27 race meetings a year and we pick out the best chances to be backing.

See our free weekly The Valley tips below and past results of our best bets:

The Valley Tips - December 13


Check back on Thursday to see our updated best bets.

Previous Tips: 


November 30


Race 2 - 1:30pm Carnsworth Noble Park Handicap (1600m)
On a very tricky program at The Valley, I thought the best value of the day was the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained MASERARTIE BAY. He came through a really hot trial at Cranbourne and bolted in first-up at Kyneton in a race that rated through the roof. He ran 5.9L above the class benchmark and its no surprise the form from that race has been strong. The second-placed Dubian Myth and fourth-placed Yulong Storm ran the quinella in a race at Swan Hill at there next starts, the third-placed Bella won a maiden at her next start, the sixth-placed Bonnie Reedem went onto finish third behind Bumper Blast at Sale while the eighth-placed Diggity has also won since. He was $2.20 into $1.55 at his next start at Seymour and won impressively again in a race that didn’t rate as highly. He went to a strong race at Ballarat last Saturday and I thought he was a good chance but the market disagreed, he was $5.50 out to $20 and when horses drift like that they almost never win. He ran fourth and didn’t run poorly, running the quickest sectionals of the race through the mid-race. That should bring him along perfectly fitness wise and he is now on the seven-day back-up with the blinkers on for the first time. At $6.50 he seems over the odds. 
Result (3rd - NTD)

Race 5 - 3:20pm Strathdon Box Hill Handicap (1500m)
I would’ve declared the Robert Hickmott-trained TALENTI a moral if the four-year-old gelding didn’t draw barrier one. Hickmott got the horse from New Zealand and it was only a 13-day turnaround until he was at the races again, at The Valley over 1500m. He settled last and was still eighth at the 400m on a night where five of the eight winners were in the top four at the 400m mark. Despite being off the speed, when Vorster clicked him up it was race over in about three strides and I loved the acceleration he showed to put them away in the straight. He ran a figure of 3.8 lengths above the class benchmark (1.8L above to the 600m and 2L above for the last 600m) whilst his overall BM figure was 5.5L above BM, which rated as the second-best win of the night behind Annunciate. That figure of 5.5 lengths above benchmark is clearly the best last start performance in the race and although he cops 61.5kg here, that’s only a 1.5kg on his win last start. The obvious danger looks to be Bill The Bee, who led at an even tempo first-up for 161-days with 60kg last start at Seymour and I thought his effort to only go down in the last stride was terrific. He goes J.Childs to M.Dee which is a negative jockey change as Dee isn’t a noted front running rider but he should slide across from barrier 11. With the speed on and any sort of luck, Talenti 
should be winning but I am fully aware he maps in hell from barrier one. 
Result (1st - $2.60)


October 26

Race 1 - 12:10pm Inglis Banner (1000m)
I saw the James Cummings-trained MARNIX gallop at Breakfast With The Best and I was extremely impressed with that I saw. He galloped with his stablemate Jerle and completely owned him. He ran his 800m gallop in 53.06s and his last 400m in 24.12s. He showed plenty of improvement from his jumpout at Flemington on October 4, where he still looked a bit new but still ran a slick time while running second. I don’t know too much about the opposition but judging by his work on Tuesday Morning, I think he will be in the finish. 
Result (scratched)

Race 8 - 4:10pm Schweppes Crystal Mile (1600m)
I’ve been with the Lindsay Park-trained SIKANDARABAD at all of his last three starts and although he hasn’t finished closer than third this preparation, he looks to be going in career best form. He was back on a leaders highway at The Valley first-up and second-up  he led into a headwind and that told late. Despite that, he ran a career PB of 13.2 lengths above BM and was again luckless last start in the Toorak Handicap (1600m). He flashed home, savaging the line, running only the 16th-fastest 600m-400m split in the race, the fourth-fastest 400m-200m split and the fastest last 200m of the race. With even luck, he should be going very close. 
Result (unplaced)

Race 9 - 4:55pm Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040m)
I started doing the form on this race looking for a way to be against LYS GRACIEUX but I simply can’t. He won the G1 Queen Elizabeth (2200m) in Japan before running second behind Exultant in the G1 Hong Kong Vase, running a time that was 2.6L faster than the G1 standard in Hong Kong. That winner went onto win the Hong Kong Cup. He went for a spell and resumed running second inthe Kinko Sho and was then third, beaten less than a length at Sha Tin in a time of 1:58.31 for 2000m and that was 5.3L faster than G1 benchmark. He was sitting back in his races and D.Lane went on last start in the Takarazuka (2200m) and he sat outside the leader and settled much better than his previous starts and bolted in by three-lengths. He has beaten 13 G1 winners at his last three starts and that’s good enough for me. 
Result (1st - $3.90)




October 25


Race 1 - 6:30pm MSC Signs Handicap (1000m)
This wasn’t a race I was keen on when first looking at the form but the more I looked, the keener I got on RUUCA. The Edmonds team don’t bring horses down to Melbourne for run and I suspect this is a target race for him. He has had 55-days between runs since running third at Eagle Farm and has had a jumpout at Caulfield where he savaged the line and then worked in blinkers at Breakfast With The Best on Tuesday morning. He worked with Heavenly Bridges and Witchfulthinking, sitting 2-3 lengths off them and charged through from the 600m-400m to lead and it was really sharp work down the straight. He ran 51.12s for his 800m gallop, running his last 400m in 24.12s. He worked in blinkers and has the blinkers on for the first time here. Damien Oliver takes the ride and he maps perfectly from barrier four. 
Result (1st $4)

Race 4 - 8:00pm Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge Heat 3 (955m)
I think the favourite Morrissy is way too short in this market, his peak career figure was fifth-up over 1200m and first-up last preparation over 1000m he couldn’t even get over the top of Divine Mr Tycoon at Seymour. Looking at the horses who have their career PB over 1000m, they are Pravro, November Man, Izzy Good and CELTIC BLAST. I’m surprised that $5.50 is available in the early markets for Celtic Blast, who is a speed machine who has gone quicker than the class benchmark times to the 600m in seven of his last eight starts and will be right on speed again from barrier three with John Allen on board. He was too speedy first-up from a 118-day spell last start at Morphettville over 1000m, despite only running the sixth-fastest last 200m and tiring late. He will be fitter and the drop back to the 955m is only a positive. 
Result (3rd - $2 to Place)

Race 8 - 10:00pm Crown Resorts Handicap (1500m)
My best bet of the night is the John Thompson-trained CUBA. The five-year-old runs his best races going quickly out in front, which with how The Valley usually plays on Manikato Stakes Night, promises to be a huge advantage. He has gone 8.7 lengths above class benchmark to the 600m and 4.2 lengths above at his last two starts and looks the likely leader again from barrier four. His last start figure at Warwick Farm of 6.8 lengths above benchmark is the second-best last start figure in the race behind Something Silver, who should also press forward with Linda Meech on board from barrier 11. The big positive here for me is the fact Nash Rawiller goes on board. This horse has been ridden by B.Owen, B Mc Dougall, Chris Williams and P.Scorse at his last 10 starts and finally gets a senior rider on his back. I like that he has seen The Valley, as he had a spin around with Dreamforce at Breakfast With The Best and didn’t look out of place galloping with the stablemate. 
Result (1st - $4.40)



The Valley Tips - September 27


Race 3 - 7:30pm Four’N Twenty Stocks Stakes (1600m)
The Let’s Elope Stakes has produced the last four winners of this race and I thought the best run from the lead-up was MISS SISKA. She has G1 Mares form last preparation around the likes of Kenedna and put in two really nice trials before her first-up run. I thought she was a great bet at $15 and did think I was going to be collecting at the 200m but Spanish Whisper had the perfect run in transit and was too strong late. Second-up last preparation she was a close-up fourth in the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf in Sydney. The main danger is obviously Princess Jenni. Second-up last preparation she contested a G3 race over 1600m here at The Valley and really announced herself as a quality horse, scoring a dominant victory over the talented Angelic Ruler. I thought Miss Siska had the advantage from a map point of view but she does get D.Oliver on.
Result (unplaced)

Race 4 - 8:00pm Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge Heat 1 (955m)
I’m confident the best horse in this race is the Sydney visitor GOD OF THUNDER and although it could be a dubious map, as most of these 955m races are, I’m keen to take the gamble. Royal Witness boasts a victory over God Of Thunder on the Kensington track but God Of Thunder was first-up and extremely unlucky on that day, charging home, running his last 600m in 32.26s, recording the second-fastest last 600m and fastest last 800m of the meeting. He went to Rosehill and scored a dominant victory, running a figure of 7.8 lengths above benchmark which was the second-best on the meeting behind only Exceedance. He was completely unsuited in the worst part of the track last start and I’m very keen that he runs well at The Valley. 
Result (2nd - $1.70 to Place)


September 7

Race 1 - 12:30pm Ladbrokes Odds Boost Exotics Handicap (1500m)
A horse first-up for 140-days against race fit horses over 1500m isn’t a profile that usually interests me, however it does in race one with the Lindsay Park-trained POWER SCHEME. He had ability in his two-year-old season, running third in a three horse race on debut but was only beaten half a length by Sebrakate. He was given a spell and returned against the likes of Dalasan in the Group 2 Sires’ Produce before winning a listed race in Sydney and finishing seventh in the Group One Champagne Stakes (1600m) behind Castelvecchio and Loving Gaby. That seventh-placing rated 6.2 lengths above the overall benchmark, which is clearly the best figure of any horse in this race. He returns Gelded, over 1500m off the back of three jumpouts. His first jumpout was just a gallop and he was never asked for an effort, the second he was put under riding and extended ok, without really picking up and sprinting. The third and final jumpout, the winkers went on and he looked really sharp. This race looks hollow, I’m happy to be against The Holy One at the price and the horse to beat is clearly Conqueror in my opinion.
Result (1st - $7.70)

Race 6 - 3:30pm Strathmore Community Bendigo Bank Stakes (1200m)
I didn’t have a big opinion of the Scott Brunton-trained THE INEVITABLE but his first-up victory at Flemington seriously impressed me. I didn’t think he was a 1000m horse at all and he was able to sit on an early speed that was 5.9 lengths above benchmark to the 600m and exploded off that, running the fastest last 200m and 400m of the meeting, beating Assertive Approach who has won since and they gapped the others, with three-lengths back to third. The Inevitable has had S.Carr and M.Poy on his back for almost the duration of his career and now gets Craig Williams, who although he had a poor day last Saturday at Caulfield, is a major upgrade. I love the map from barrier eight, as he can sit outside Tshahitsi or even find the one-out and one-back spot if Runson sits outside lead from the wide gate. Looking at the opposition, this really looks like a three horse race. Fell Swoop is in the wheelchair, I doubt there will be much intent with Widgee Turf (blinkers off first time), Bandipur is gone and Oak Door got his win first-up. Looking at the two other horses in the market, Tavisun has ability but got the pattern to suit and Ben Melham jumps off to ride Fell Swoop? The switch to D.Dunn on a leader is a big negative jockey change for mine. Deprive is the main danger, he goes from R.King to D.Oliver which is a big positive jockey change and If he can hold a position early from barrier three, he should be in the finish. 
Result (1st - $4)

Race 8 - 4:50pm Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600m)
The feature race on the meeting is the Group 2 Feehan Stakes, won by Magic Consul last year. Homesman went within a nose of winning this race last year and is favourite here but the stable isn’t going anywhere near as well this and although they might be turning things around, I’m happy to oppose him. The lead-up race I want to be with is the P.B Lawrence Stakes and the horse I want to be with is SIKANDARABAD. He was coming off a very good trial victory at Cranbourne and there was support for him first-up in the Lawrence ($34 into $21). He got all the favours along the fence but was really strong through the line, running the second-fastest last 200m of the race and was taking ground off the likes of Hartnell and Cliff’s Edge late. Second-up, up to 1600m is the logical progression and second-up over the mile last preparation he split Avilius and Night’s Watch in a Group 3 race at Caulfield. He maps well from barrier eight and although I’m not super keen on the race, I thought he represented some value at around $6.00. Best Of Days can win but he has map issues from barrier 12, Fifty Stars should improve but looks a 2000m and beyond horse these days. The horse I will likely end up saving on is Kenedna. I thought she was good through the line off that slow tempo first-up and gets the blinkers back on here. 
Result (unplaced)





Share this with your friends

To:
From:
Your comments:

Moonee Valley Tips December 13 – Expert best bets for The Valley

Jackson Oldham previews racing at Moonee Valley and gives his best bets for the meeting.

Read more »

You have unread messages

You have unread messages