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Moonee Valley Tips March 22 – Expert best bets for The Valley on Friday

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 21 Mar 2019
  • Expert tips for the weekend best bets for Moonee Valley.
Moonee Valley Racecourse

Looking for expert tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Moonee Valley? Our form analysts pick out their best chances for racing at The Valley. 

Moonee Valley is widely-recognised for its short home-straight of only 173m, making it the shortest of any course in Australia. The Valley track stages around 27 race meetings a year and we pick out the best chances to be backing.

See our free weekly The Valley tips below and past results of our best bets:

The Valley Tips - March 22

Race 1 - 6:30pm Ascend Sales Trophies Emma Boling Plate (1200m)
With the scratching of Sunset’s Watch, I’m happy to play the Michael Moroney-trained CHICAGO CUB. First-up for 291 days, he bolted in over 1009m at Yarra Valley before coming to The Valley last start. He half missed the start and didn’t settle back in the field off an average early tempo. He swooped wide and ran 5.1 lengths faster than the class benchmark over the final 600m and just missed behind Testifier who got the perfect run and is an odds on favourite later in the program. The stable is flying and the horse gets N.Beriman off and B.Melham on. He should sit outside Yulong January and control this race. Anjana was well-backed first-up for Mick Price at Flemington ($8.00 into $6.00) and is a horse with serious ability. She has a SP over Mystic Journey at Caulfield but I just had a concern on the map, as I’m confident on a leader favoured track. From barrier four, Ollie could be a pair too far back. At the price, I’m happy to be with Chicago Cub.

Race 5 - 8:30pm Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge Heat 17 (955m)
I want to oppose the favourite Superhard and am in the corner of DESERT LASHES. Her last start effort was terrific, running second behind Ashlor on Cox Plate Day. Kerrin McEvoy rode the horse and just went too slow in the lead. He went 10.5 lengths below the class benchmark to the 600m and that allowed Ashlor to sprint over the top late. She is dynamite fresh, with four wins and two seconds from six career first-up runs. She can either lead or come across with Plateau Gold and control the race from outside the leader. Superhard was dominant first-up over 1000m at Flemington but I hate the step back to 955m second-up. I actually thought he was looking for 1100m-1200m now and it seems a strange move from John Sadler. He maps too far back and if he does win, it won’t be by a big margin. 

Previous Moonee Valley Tips:

March 15

Race 5 - 8:30pm Gallagher Bassett Handicap (1600m)
I thought the favourite Divanation was vulnerable first-up for 258 days, having a 1550m trial into a mile race first-up just doesn’t seem like a winning platform. The horse I’m with is the Adelaide visitor TONGSAI BOB. The three-year-old son of Street Boss was luckless first-up at Morphettville before getting the run of the race last start and was slightly disappointing on face value. I thought he raced like a horse who will be fitter and will appreciate the step up from 1400m to a mile. I love his third-up profile, third-up two preparations ago he ran third in a Listed race, beating home the likes of Poised To Strike and Crockett who have both won Metro races in Melbourne. He ran the quickest last 200m of the meeting. Third-up last preparation he was only two-lengths off Schilldora, who was a close-up fourth in a Group race here at The Valley only a few weeks ago. J.Toeroak to J.Kah is a positive jockey change and I think Kah will roll forward from barrier nine in a race without much early speed. He looks a good bet at $6.50.
Result (1st - $7)

Race 6 - 9:00pm Ranvet Abell Stakes (1200m)
If the track is playing fair, the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained KEMONO looks an outstanding bet. I was happy to be against him last start at Flemington but I did think his fourth-placed effort was full of merit. I was happy to be against the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Kemono on Saturday but I did think his run was outstanding. He was scratched from the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) the week before with blinkers on and ran down the straight at Flemington over 1000m with no blinkers on. I’m convinced that was just a fitness run and the market indicated he wasn’t ready to win ($4.60 out to $6.00). The leader Moonlover went 2.4 lengths slower than class benchmark to the 600m and Kemono really had no chance from back in the field. I loved the style of his last 200m, as he ripped home his final furlong in 11.04s which was the fastest of the entire meeting. He gets the blinkers back on here, steps up to 1200m and faces a weaker field. 
Result (unplaced)

March 1

Race 1 - 6:30pm Inglis Premier Yearling Sale Handicap (1200m)
In a competitive start to the meeting, I’m happy to back the Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young-trained VILLA BLANCA. She looked like a nice type from the mounting yard on debut and ran up to her looks, she was held-up on the home turn and flashed home for third without much luck. With clear room i’m confident she runs at least a clear second behind the winner Andrassy Avenue, who was well-backed in the Blue Diamond eight days later. She should get a nice run in transit from barrier four and D.Oliver sticks. I think $6.50 is value in a small six-horse field. 
Result (Unplaced)

Race 4 - 8:00pm Dynamic Print Group Handicap (1200m)
The class horse in this race is the Nick Ryan-trained COLUMBUS CIRCLE. He won impressively on debut at Caulfield and I thought his second-up performance here at The Valley was full of merit. He hit the front but was quickly headed by Beerz With Clint, he fought back to beat Beerz With Clint home but was run down by Halvorsen and Hawkshot who is one of the favourites for the Australian Guineas on Saturday. He has the best figures in the race and should prove hard to beat. I’m expecting this Moonee Valley track to play hard and fast, with the rail out 7m we should see a leader bias track. That should favour Columbus Circle, who will be forward from barrier 3 with D.Oliver on board, unlike his main rivals Testifier and Kashiwa who map in the back half of the field. 
Result (4th)

February 22

Race 1 - 6:30pm The Drain Man Handicap (1000m)
I thought the best bet for the night came up in the first race, with the Lindsay Park galloper BEN HERCULES. He won impressively first-up at Bendigo last preparation before winning again at Sandown and going to Sydney for a run in the Rosebud Prelude. I thought his fourth (beaten 2.2 lengths) behind Plague Stone and Witherspoon was full of merit, as he ran 9.1 lengths above benchmark which is the best figure in the race. The main danger looks to be the stablemate Thine Is The Power but surely Mark Zahra had his choice of the two, with Fred Kersley on board Thine Is The Power. I really liked his recent trial at Tatura. Mark Zahra rode him in the trial and couldn’t hold him slow enough, as he was eating into the margin of the leader Galaxy Force over the final 150m. From a map perpesctive, Rock Hard should lead with Ben Hercules on his outside and Thine is the Power back behind the leader. Zahra is the best rider in the race and can just own this race from outside the leader, with the jockeys around him likely to be Joe Bowditch, Chelsea Hall, Fred Kersley and Liam Riordan. I’m happy to make Ben Hercules my best bet of the night. 
Result (scratched)

Race 6 - 9:00pm PKF Summer Stayers Series Heat 5 (2040m)
The horse I thought was slightly over the odds was AYERS ROCK. I think this race sets up well for Ayers Rock, who should sit outside the likely leader Cleo’s Poet. Although he goes from D.Dunn to E.Brown which could be seen as a negative jockey change by some, I believe this is a huge positive. This horse needs a rolling tempo as he doesn’t have a terrific turn of foot and D.Dunn usually goes slower than necessary on front runners.The perfect example of this was last start in a Benchmark 84 race at Flemington, Dunn went 4.6 lengths slower than benchmark to the 600m, the start before over this track and distance at The Valley, he sat second and went four lengths quicker than benchmark to the 600m and finished less than a length behind Mosh Music who has won again. Ethan Brown is an elite judge of tempo and I love him on this horse. Although the favourite Crimson Tears is probably the most likely winner of the race, I couldn’t get him anywhere near his current price of $2.40. I thought his last start run was ok but this is slightly weaker. My main concern was M.Poy from barrier nine, he will have to make decisions early and if he gets too far back, it could be game over. At the price I thought Ayers Rock represented the best value.
Result (3rd)

February 15

Race 1 - 6:30pm Dominant Hygiene Systems Plate (1000m)
The James Cummings-trained VIVARO was super impressive at the jumpouts and warranted the market support on debut over this track and distance a fortnight ago. He showed terrific early speed, running 5.2 lengths above benchmark to the 600m but just hasn’t learnt how to harness his early speed. Some of these jump and run two-year-olds can be ‘squiby’ meaning they are speed horses who don’t have much substance to them. I don’t believe this is the case for Vivaro, as he showed terrific fight in the straight considering how hard he went over the first half of the race. From the trials, the two dangers appear to be the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Isa Rocket, who won a trial impressively at Cranbourne, beating Charvet. The other danger could be Beauty Supreme for Grahame Begg and Jamie Kah. I blackbooked him from the Cranbourne trials and I’m confident he can run a nice race at double figure odds. 
Result (unplaced)

Race 2 - 7:00pm Dominant Hand Hygiene Handicap (1200m)
The Lindsay Park runner KHULAASA has never been one of my horses but she looks a bet here at upwards of that $5.50 quote. She third (beaten 0.3 lengths) behind Ranier and Wild Planet reads terrifically for a race of this quality. Her last start over this track and distance, she was beaten only three-lengths behind the likes of Thrillster and Humma Humma. I have been impressed with her two jumpouts at Werribee and Flemington. She sat wide at Werribee and just cruised into the jumpout at Werribee under no riding. She went to Flemington a week later and looked to take plenty of improvement from her first jumpout, leading and travelling well, defeating stablemate Qafila under no riding. She looks to have returned in very good order and I’m expecting a big first-up performance. From barrier three, I’d love to see Jordan Childs be positive on her out of the gates and either lead or sit close to the leader.
Result (1st - $7.50)

Race 4 - 8:00pm Dominant Australia Stayers Series (2040m)
The best bet of the night looks to be the Archie Alexander-trained MOSH MUSIC. She put the writing on the wall two starts ago at Sandown, as the leaders ran walked early, running 11.7 lengths below benchmark to the 600m, she flew home, running the quickest last 200m, 400m, 600m and 800m of the race, running the final 600m in 8.3 lengths above benchmark. She went to The Valley last start and Jordan Childs rode her like the best horse in the race and she proved that. She was forced to make a sustained run from the 800m and covered more ground than any other horse, despite that she was still far too good for her rivals, running the fastest last 400m, 600m and 800m of the race, running 6.4 lengths above benchmark. She has had that run at 2040m and should be reaching peak fitness fourth-up. She maps nicely from barrier four with Jordan Childs and as long as the track allows good horses to make ground, she should be winning.
Result (1st - $2)

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Moonee Valley Tips March 22 – Expert best bets for The Valley on Friday

Jackson Oldham previews racing at Moonee Valley on Friday night and gives his best bets for the meeting.

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