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Moonee Valley Tips September 7 – Expert best bets for The Valley

Jackson Oldham in Free Tips 5 Sep 2019
  • Expert tips for the weekend best bets for Moonee Valley.
Moonee Valley Racecourse

Looking for expert tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Moonee Valley? Our form analysts pick out their best chances for racing at The Valley. 

Moonee Valley is widely-recognised for its short home-straight of only 173m, making it the shortest of any course in Australia. The Valley track stages around 27 race meetings a year and we pick out the best chances to be backing.

See our free weekly The Valley tips below and past results of our best bets:

The Valley Tips - September 7

Race 1 - 12:30pm Ladbrokes Odds Boost Exotics Handicap (1500m)
A horse first-up for 140-days against race fit horses over 1500m isn’t a profile that usually interests me, however it does in race one with the Lindsay Park-trained POWER SCHEME. He had ability in his two-year-old season, running third in a three horse race on debut but was only beaten half a length by Sebrakate. He was given a spell and returned against the likes of Dalasan in the Group 2 Sires’ Produce before winning a listed race in Sydney and finishing seventh in the Group One Champagne Stakes (1600m) behind Castelvecchio and Loving Gaby. That seventh-placing rated 6.2 lengths above the overall benchmark, which is clearly the best figure of any horse in this race. He returns Gelded, over 1500m off the back of three jumpouts. His first jumpout was just a gallop and he was never asked for an effort, the second he was put under riding and extended ok, without really picking up and sprinting. The third and final jumpout, the winkers went on and he looked really sharp. This race looks hollow, I’m happy to be against The Holy One at the price and the horse to beat is clearly Conqueror in my opinion.

Race 6 - 3:30pm Strathmore Community Bendigo Bank Stakes (1200m)
I didn’t have a big opinion of the Scott Brunton-trained THE INEVITABLE but his first-up victory at Flemington seriously impressed me. I didn’t think he was a 1000m horse at all and he was able to sit on an early speed that was 5.9 lengths above benchmark to the 600m and exploded off that, running the fastest last 200m and 400m of the meeting, beating Assertive Approach who has won since and they gapped the others, with three-lengths back to third. The Inevitable has had S.Carr and M.Poy on his back for almost the duration of his career and now gets Craig Williams, who although he had a poor day last Saturday at Caulfield, is a major upgrade. I love the map from barrier eight, as he can sit outside Tshahitsi or even find the one-out and one-back spot if Runson sits outside lead from the wide gate. Looking at the opposition, this really looks like a three horse race. Fell Swoop is in the wheelchair, I doubt there will be much intent with Widgee Turf (blinkers off first time), Bandipur is gone and Oak Door got his win first-up. Looking at the two other horses in the market, Tavisun has ability but got the pattern to suit and Ben Melham jumps off to ride Fell Swoop? The switch to D.Dunn on a leader is a big negative jockey change for mine. Deprive is the main danger, he goes from R.King to D.Oliver which is a big positive jockey change and If he can hold a position early from barrier three, he should be in the finish. 

Race 8 - 4:50pm Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes (1600m)
The feature race on the meeting is the Group 2 Feehan Stakes, won by Magic Consul last year. Homesman went within a nose of winning this race last year and is favourite here but the stable isn’t going anywhere near as well this and although they might be turning things around, I’m happy to oppose him. The lead-up race I want to be with is the P.B Lawrence Stakes and the horse I want to be with is SIKANDARABAD. He was coming off a very good trial victory at Cranbourne and there was support for him first-up in the Lawrence ($34 into $21). He got all the favours along the fence but was really strong through the line, running the second-fastest last 200m of the race and was taking ground off the likes of Hartnell and Cliff’s Edge late. Second-up, up to 1600m is the logical progression and second-up over the mile last preparation he split Avilius and Night’s Watch in a Group 3 race at Caulfield. He maps well from barrier eight and although I’m not super keen on the race, I thought he represented some value at around $6.00. Best Of Days can win but he has map issues from barrier 12, Fifty Stars should improve but looks a 2000m and beyond horse these days. The horse I will likely end up saving on is Kenedna. I thought she was good through the line off that slow tempo first-up and gets the blinkers back on here. 

Previous Tips:

August 24

Race 1 - 12:20pm Paramount Liquor Handicap (1600m)
The Lindsay Park-trained galloper LEGALE was desperately unlucky last start here at The Valley and looks a nice price at nearly double figure odds after starting favourite last start. He paraded perfectly and tracked into the race ok before being held-up, held-up and was then checked badly at the 400m, went for another gap around the home turn and got bumped and the rider Lewis German almost fell. The last five jockeys the Lindsay Park stable have put on Legale have been L.German, L.King. H.Coffey. B.McDougall and J.McNeil. Finally we get Mark Zahra on from barrier seven and this looks like a set-up for the horse to show his best. His peak performance figure in the last two years is 14.4 lengths above benchmark, which is second only to Laure Me In (15.1 lengths above) who has been backed from $17 into $6.50. I can see why the Scott Brunton-trained Shot Of Irish is favourite. He was outstanding two starts ago at Sandown, blowing away Smart Elissim before running a good third last Saturday at Caulfield behind Age Of Chivalry. Having said that, I’d rather back Legale at $9.00 than Shot Of Irish at $3.90.
Result (unplaced)

Race 2 - 12:55pm Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap (2500m)
I was very keen on the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained THE STATESMAN here at The Valley three weeks ago and I tipped him around the $4.60 mark and he started closer to $3.00. It was a horrible watch from start to finish and I thought his effort to finish third was outstanding. He jumped well from the wide gate but Teo Nugent showed no intent to get across and the fact that the likes of Habesha and San Remo kicked up from inside gates meant he was stuck three-wide and working for the first 700m of the race. Once he finally got over, he was still forced to sit outside the leader who was ran 8.9 lengths faster than class benchmark to the 600m. He hit the front at the 300m but the other favourite, More Than Ever was given an inch perfect ride from Jamie Kah, went back to the outside as the leader San Remo had dropped out and it was game over. Much the same as three weeks ago, the bookies have installed More Than Ever favourite over The Statesman, who was a much better run in my opinion. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market support again on raceday and him start favourite over More Than Ever.
Result (scratched)

Race 9 - 5:20pm MSC Signs Handicap (2040m)
The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained AL GALAYEL has run seventh in all three runs this preparation but I thought all three runs were full of merit. He had two good fitness building runs at Sandown Lakeside first-up and Flemington two starts ago. He stepped up from 1600m to 2040m last start here at The Valley and there was strong market support for him, as he opened $17 and started $8.50. He had no chance of winning with the race shape, as Linda Meech controlled the race from the from on Inverloch, the leader won and the second horse Masculino sat on the leaders back. He was still last at the 200m and savaged the line, running the fastest last 200m, 400m and 600m of the race, while running the seventh-fastest last 200m, ninth-fastest last 400m and 12th-fastest last 600m of the meeting. He has that 2000m run under his belt now and should be ready to win. With the likes of Tavirun, Inverloch and Masculino in the race, the leaders should run along early and that can bring the likes of Al Galayel into the race. He maps slightly worse than midfield from barrier nine and I’m trusting Damian Lane to give him a peach of a ride. 
Result (unplaced)

August 3

Race 4 - 1:45pm Ladbrokes Handicap (1600m)
This looks a tricky race on paper but I’m keen to take on both Travimyfriend and New Universe so it makes this a betting race. I thought ELITE DRAKE strikes a race shape that will suit him and gets Steph Thornton on board back at The Valley, which is a positive. He had no peace in front last start at Caulfield, with Like To Think So making him work up the hill and declaring him on at the 600m, setting the race up perfectly for a swooper, which was Travimyfriend. The start prior, Elite Drake was able to control the race, despite going almost the identical figure of 7.2 lengths above benchmark to the 600m. He gave a strong kick and was able to run the fastest last 200m of the race, beating Special Diva who has won since, defeating Ballet Master who has also won since so I like the strength of that formline. The step up to a mile looks troubling at first look but his form over 1600m is actually quite good. His last 1600m run was at Caulfield when he finished third, only 2.6 lengths off Widgee Turf. Looking his two previous 1600m runs, one was at the end of his prep and the other he beat home a horse called Cliff’s Edge. Kentucky Breeze had never looked better from a mounting yard perspective last start Flemington and ran up to his looks, beating Organza and Reykjavik. Barrier one could present some issues but he is in the race.
Result (unplaced)

Race 6 - 3:05pm Chandler MacLeod Handicap (2500m)
The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained THE STATESMAN looks ready to win. The six-year-old hasn’t had a platform to win yet this preparation but he finally gets a set-up that should suit. He jumped from 1600m to 2000m second-up and then quickly went to a fast run 2500m last start. He loomed like the winner on the home turn, hitting the front and not surprisingly, ran out of fitness late. He ran the fourth-fastest 600m-400m split of the race, third-fastest 400m-200m split of the race then just the eighth-fastest last 200m. He should be nearing peak fitness fourth-up and he comes through three fast races this preparation. The leaders went 13.5 lengths above benchmark to the 600m first-up, 9.9 lengths above benchmark to the 600m second-up and 11.7 lengths above benchmark to the 600m last start. He has had that 2500m run which I love and although he rises 3kg, he goes from a benchmark 90 to a benchmark 78 and goes from J.McNeil to T.Nugent which is a positive jockey change. I can’t get near the current favourite More Than Ever. He has upside and won impressively, beating Good Idea (has been competitive in Metro Melbourne) last start at Morphettville in his first run over 2400m. He did also run the second-fastest last 200m of the meeting and third-fastest last 400m of the meeting but they did walk early and he didn’t even break the benchmark figure. His peak figure of six to eight-lengths off these and although he has upside, I couldn’t get him anywhere near his current price.
Result (3rd - $1.30 to Place)

Race 7 - 3:45pm Dynamic Print Group Handicap (2040m)
The bomb proof horse in this race looks to be MASCULINO. He will likely lead but can take a sit if Baster elects to come across with vigur on Dylan’s Romance from barrier 10, while Inverloch sits just off those two. I can see the other two favourites getting into sticky positions, with Twilight Run likely to get a pair or two further back that what would be ideal with Beau Mertens on from barrier nine, while Bedford maps three back the fence from barrier two. Masculino’s last start figure of 10.7 lengths above benchmark is clearly the best last start figure in the race and his peak performance figure of 16.2 lengths above benchmark is also the best in the race. I loved his last start effort behind Carzoff at Flemington, with the winner having the perfect run in transit. They put four-lengths on third, which is an encouraging sign and going from Flemington to Moonee Valley is advantageous. The jockey change from L.King to M.Zahra is a positive jockey change, although I will admit Zahra isn’t riding in terrific form since he returned from his holiday. 
Result (2nd - $1.50 to Place)

March 22

Race 1 - 6:30pm Ascend Sales Trophies Emma Boling Plate (1200m)
With the scratching of Sunset’s Watch, I’m happy to play the Michael Moroney-trained CHICAGO CUB. First-up for 291 days, he bolted in over 1009m at Yarra Valley before coming to The Valley last start. He half missed the start and didn’t settle back in the field off an average early tempo. He swooped wide and ran 5.1 lengths faster than the class benchmark over the final 600m and just missed behind Testifier who got the perfect run and is an odds on favourite later in the program. The stable is flying and the horse gets N.Beriman off and B.Melham on. He should sit outside Yulong January and control this race. Anjana was well-backed first-up for Mick Price at Flemington ($8.00 into $6.00) and is a horse with serious ability. She has a SP over Mystic Journey at Caulfield but I just had a concern on the map, as I’m confident on a leader favoured track. From barrier four, Ollie could be a pair too far back. At the price, I’m happy to be with Chicago Cub.
Result (unplaced)

Race 5 - 8:30pm Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge Heat 17 (955m)
I want to oppose the favourite Superhard and am in the corner of DESERT LASHES. Her last start effort was terrific, running second behind Ashlor on Cox Plate Day. Kerrin McEvoy rode the horse and just went too slow in the lead. He went 10.5 lengths below the class benchmark to the 600m and that allowed Ashlor to sprint over the top late. She is dynamite fresh, with four wins and two seconds from six career first-up runs. She can either lead or come across with Plateau Gold and control the race from outside the leader. Superhard was dominant first-up over 1000m at Flemington but I hate the step back to 955m second-up. I actually thought he was looking for 1100m-1200m now and it seems a strange move from John Sadler. He maps too far back and if he does win, it won’t be by a big margin. 
Result (1st - $3.60)

March 15

Race 5 - 8:30pm Gallagher Bassett Handicap (1600m)
I thought the favourite Divanation was vulnerable first-up for 258 days, having a 1550m trial into a mile race first-up just doesn’t seem like a winning platform. The horse I’m with is the Adelaide visitor TONGSAI BOB. The three-year-old son of Street Boss was luckless first-up at Morphettville before getting the run of the race last start and was slightly disappointing on face value. I thought he raced like a horse who will be fitter and will appreciate the step up from 1400m to a mile. I love his third-up profile, third-up two preparations ago he ran third in a Listed race, beating home the likes of Poised To Strike and Crockett who have both won Metro races in Melbourne. He ran the quickest last 200m of the meeting. Third-up last preparation he was only two-lengths off Schilldora, who was a close-up fourth in a Group race here at The Valley only a few weeks ago. J.Toeroak to J.Kah is a positive jockey change and I think Kah will roll forward from barrier nine in a race without much early speed. He looks a good bet at $6.50.
Result (1st - $7)

Race 6 - 9:00pm Ranvet Abell Stakes (1200m)
If the track is playing fair, the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained KEMONO looks an outstanding bet. I was happy to be against him last start at Flemington but I did think his fourth-placed effort was full of merit. I was happy to be against the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Kemono on Saturday but I did think his run was outstanding. He was scratched from the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) the week before with blinkers on and ran down the straight at Flemington over 1000m with no blinkers on. I’m convinced that was just a fitness run and the market indicated he wasn’t ready to win ($4.60 out to $6.00). The leader Moonlover went 2.4 lengths slower than class benchmark to the 600m and Kemono really had no chance from back in the field. I loved the style of his last 200m, as he ripped home his final furlong in 11.04s which was the fastest of the entire meeting. He gets the blinkers back on here, steps up to 1200m and faces a weaker field. 
Result (unplaced)

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Moonee Valley Tips September 7 – Expert best bets for The Valley

Jackson Oldham previews racing at Moonee Valley on Friday night and gives his best bets for the meeting.

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