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Racing Bet of the Day July 12 - 2 best bets for a Heavy Geelong surface

Aaron Hamilton in Free Tips 11 Jul 2019
  • Confidence rating: Credible Witness 80%, Campobasso 90%
  • Suggested stake: Credible Witness (1 unit to Win), Campobasso (2 units to Win)

Geelong Racecourse was rated a Heavy 10 at 2pm on Thursday, and with more rain predicted for Friday, it’s hard to see the track racing any better than its current rating.

Racing Bet of the Day Results

Last 10 resultsOutlay on all 2019 SelectionsReturn (based on $10 Win bets2018 Results
LLWWWLLLLL$4640$4731+36% ROI

I’ve found two supreme wet-trackers that are both primed for victory and have strong form lines heading into Friday’s assignment. 

Here are my best bets for Geelong today: 

Race 7 - 4:00PM JAI RODERICK MEMORIAL BM64 HANDICAP (1112 METRES)
Admittedly, this is an open race with half a dozen good chances, but the form around CREDIBLE WITNESS is impossible to ignore, his  benchmark (BM) rating on Heavy ground is better than his opposition, and he looks set to peak third-up with Jamie Mott in the saddle from barrier 2. He was nailed near the line first-up over 1110m on a Heavy track where he went 0.8 of length above BM. He dropped back to 1000m second-up and was charging out of the pack late but failed to pick up Elite Legacy who has since won a BM70. I like that form line, and with fitness on his side now, Credible Witness looks hard to beat. 
Race 8 - 4:30PM VEHICLE MODIFICATION SPECIALISTS BM64 HANDICAP (1512 METRES)
I tipped CAMPOBASSO last start when he finished 5th, and I’d be the first to admit that I got one wrong, but I don’t think I did on this occasion. I tipped him on a Heavy track which ended up drying out and being rated a Soft 5 – so be mindful of this on Friday and only back Campobasso on a Heavy track. Secondly, jockey Josh Cartwright went for an inside run when all horses were swooping wide in better going and it obviously didn’t pay off. Everything on the inside went backward, but Campobasso’s effort to stick with them was encouraging. He’s been transferred from Michael Hickmott to his older brother Robert Hickmott, and Robert is now backing the horse up a week later and has booked Billy Egan as a late jockey alteration. I much prefer the switch to Egan who went to Geelong for one ride on June 14 and booted home a winner on the Heavy track. On BM ratings, Campobasso’s effort to go 2.8 lengths above BM on a Heavy 10 two starts back is clearly the best BM rating of any horse on a Heavy track in Friday’s event. He’s rock-hard-fit, maps perfectly one or two pairs back on the outside, and with a clear preference for Heavy ground, he’ll prove hard to hold out.


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Racing Bet of the Day July 12 - 2 best bets for a Heavy Geelong surface

Geelong Racecourse was rated a Heavy 10 at 2pm on Thursday, and with more rain predicted for Friday, it’s hard to see the track racing any better than its current rating.

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