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Racing Bet of the Day August 12 - $151 chance slightly over the odds

Aaron Hamilton in Free Tips 12 Aug 2019
  • Confidence rating: Indiscretion to Win 92%, Princess Jude to Place 70%
  • Suggested stake: Indiscretion (3 units to Win), Princess Jude (1 unit to Place)

We head to the synthetic track at Pakenham on Monday where our best bet comes up in Race 3, the Polytrack F&M Maiden Plate (1200m).

Racing Bet of the Day Results

Last 12 resultsOutlay on all 2019 SelectionsReturn (based on $10 Win bets2018 Results
WWLLLLLLLWLL$3820$4213+36% ROI

Firstly, I think the Phillip Stokes-trained Indiscretion is a standout in this, but I’m also keen to play a massive outside for the Place. 

Indiscretion let down nicely to win a 1000m barrier trial on this surface before being narrowly beaten at Sandown on debut. 

She disappointed next time at Sandown but may have been a bit flat after the testing debut run on a Heavy track. 

Stokes sent her to Morphettville for the Listed Oaklands Plate (1400m) last start, and after settling last and coming widest on the bend, she failed to run down Westport who made it three in a row. 

With just over three weeks between runs, the drop back to 1200m looks ideal, and after scratchings, she’s drawn nicely in gate 5 with Ben Allen aboard. 

Now onto the $151 chance.

The Aaron Laing-prepared Princess Jude finished 2nd to another Stokes runner, Punsky, in a 1000m barrier trial at this track where they went identical time to Indiscretion in her trial here. 

Punksy won impressively on debut and ran the best closing sectionals of the meeting, and he goes around in the last race at Pakenham today.

Princess Jude debuted at Mildura on Saturday, and after missing the start and being hunted up along the inside, she started to overrace and wasted too much energy. 

Despite this, she peeled out behind the leaders in the straight and loomed as a winning chance but then peaked with 150m to go and finished 5.7 lengths last. 

I think the 1300m trip was a bit too much on debut, while overracing certainly contributed to inability to finish the race off strong. 

With second-up improvement, Noel Callow going aboard, and the drop back to 1200m, I think she can run a much-improved race and looks over the odds at $21 for the Place. 



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Racing Bet of the Day August 12 - $151 chance slightly over the odds

We head to the synthetic track at Pakenham on Monday where our best bet comes up in Race 3, the Polytrack F&M Maiden Plate (1200m).

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