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Rosehill Tips September 14 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Aaron Hamilton in Free Tips 12 Sep 2019
  • 3 to 4 best bets for Rosehill each meeting.
  • Previous results included.
Rosehill Gardens racing

Looking for tips and best bets for Saturday racing at Rosehill Gardens? 

Our form analysts give you their expert racing tips for NSW racing each weekend including Rosehill Gardens which is located approximately 23 kilometres to the west of Sydney's city centre.

See our free Rosehill tips below:

Rosehill Tips - September 14

Race 5 - 2:35PM DULCIFY STAKES (1500 METRES)
I’m willing to take a punt on CASTELVECCHIO after he showed significant improvement in his second barrier trial. I his first 1000m trial behind Redzel, he settled a distant last and stayed there throughout and didn’t want to accelerate. Four weeks later he went to Warwick Farm for a 1200m trial, and while he also settled at the rear, he picked up in the straight this time and worked home stylishly without being put under pressure. I like the fact he resumes over 1500m, and his brilliant turn of foot will take him a long way this campaign. 
Sticking with BALLER who won for us last week and is on the one-week back-up at his third run this campaign. Second-up last preparation, he was beaten four lengths in the Listed Fireball Stakes (1100m), and then third-up he was beaten five lengths in the Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m) behind Nature Strip and Pierata. I really like that third-up form, and Baller now drops 6.5kg on his last run, and he should be right at his peak. 
ALL TOO ROYAL was two from two at this track until finishing near last and going for a spell after a taxing campaign. At his first run this campaign, he broke the Kensington 1100m track record, ran he quickest final 600m and highest benchmark (BM) rating from the 600m. He’s very consistent win seven wins and three placings from 13 starts, and he looks well placed here from barrier 7. 

Previous Tips:

August 31

ADANA was a drifting favourite last start and that may have been to how he mapped from barrier 1. Kerrin McEvoy was unable to find a clear passage early in the straight and Adana went from box seat behind the leader to last of the main pack and looking to angle out wide. He hit the line strongly once clear and now faces the one-week back-up and looks set to peak third-up based on previous preparations. Two of his third-up runs have been in Group 1 events and although his other was in a maiden, he finished 3rd behind Brilliant Choice and Nakeeta Jane in that extremely strong maiden. McEvoy can atone here. 
Result (1st - $4.80)

BIVOUAC was explosive taking out the Vain Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield when first-up last start, and he’s clearly the one to beat here. He’s unbeaten in three runs over this trip, and he may have been the reason Hugh Bowman stayed in Sydney instead of going to Caulfield to partner Alizee in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes. If he holds his last start form, he’ll be winning.
Result (2nd - $1.10 to Place)
I was really impressed with the recent barrier trial of COME PLAY WITH ME who has joined the Chris Waller stable having built his career in Western Australia with Adam Durrant. He’s won his last four in a row over distances from 2000m to 2200m, and he’s also placed over 3200m which makes him quite versatile. Waller saddles up nine of the 12 runners in this and James McDonald has picked this bloke which is a push in itself. 
Result (2nd - $1.40 to Place)

Race 8 - 4:30PM TAB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained ALL TOO ROYAL broke the clock at Kensington setting a new 1100m track record while posting the quickest final 600m of the day and the best benchmark figure of the day. He went back from the wide gate but had won his previous four while leading or sitting 2nd. A positive ride from gate 1 is expected, and he can score in what is an open affair with the likes of Fasika, Haut Brion Her and Desert Lord looming as the main dangers. 
Result (scratched)

August 10

Four of my blackbookers go around in this event but I’m confident HAUT BRION HER is the one to stick with here. Taniko has recorded the best closing sectionals of her past two meetings but looks poorly weighted. Connemara has been runner-up in all three runs this time in, and interestingly, her last start time at Rosehill on a Good 4 was still slower than Haut Brion Her went on a Soft 6 at Randwick when beating Misteed who franked the form with a win at Randwick last Saturday. My Expression is first-up from a spell and gives Haut Brion Her 5kg which I don’t think she can afford to do. On that basis, I’m predicting Haut Brion Her to keep improving this preparation and make it three in a row. 
Result (1st - $1.70)

If Chris Waller can get us off to a good start with Haut Brion Her, I think he can back that up with the highly-talented LUCICELLO. She recorded the strongest benchmark (BM) performance of the day going 10.2 lengths above BM when winning at Rosehill Gardens last start, and she ran some sizzling sectionals midrace and still finished best. She’s improving with every start and is the one they have to beat. 
Result (3rd - $1.50 to Place)

I’m sticking with DRACHENFELS who is on the quick back-up which may just do the trick. Trainer Bjorn Baker applied blinkers last time in the hope they would switch him on enough to deliver as he stepped up to 1400m, but after settling in last place, could just couldn’t bridge the gap on The Party Girl who was carrying 54kg while Drachenfels lumped 60kg. He now goes from BM78 grade to a BM88, but with 4.5kg less on his back, as well as being rock-hard-fit, he should be able to sustain an earlier run and keep coming with the lighter weight. 
Result (3rd - $1.90 to Place)

July 27

I blackbooked CONNEMARA before her last start and she then finished 2nd to Notation who won at Canterbury in the previous start and then defeated Velocita next start before beating all bar Smartedge in a strong BM88 last Saturday. That form line is proven, and Connemara now heads back to the races with five weeks between runs but with a soft barrier trial under the belt to keep her up to the mark. She scored third-up last campaign and should be at peak fitness now, and after drawing barrier 3, she’ll get every chance with Jay Ford in the saddle. 
Result (2nd - $1.60 to Place)

If TANIKO backs up from last Saturday’s impressive win, she’s the one to beat again. She ran the quickest final 600m, 400m and 200m of the meeting while also going 12 lengths above all BM ratings which was a clear standout for the day. At her fifth run this campaign, she should be at peak fitness and able to absorb the quick back-up. 
Result (3rd - $1.90 to Place)

Team Hawkes can finish the day on high when the talented GREYWORM resumes from a spell. He was scratched from Randwick last Saturday and finds a near identical race here albeit it being 100m longer. He’s unbeaten in two first-up runs and his recent barrier trial was encouraging. He showed his customary early speed to lead the field over 800m at Hawkesbury, and when Bjorn Baker’s Denman gelding, Prime Candidate loomed up to go past him under riding, Greyworm kicked back under his own steam to hold on. Prime Candidate is now slouch having won four from five, and Greyworm impressed most in the trial. Brock Ryan gets the ride and claims 3kg which sees Greyworm get in with a very winnable 57kg.
Result (unplaced)

July 13

Gumshoe was an impressive first-up winner but has to carry a bit more weight here and that will test him. The Stirling Osland-trained SCARLET MISSILE has been runner-up to the in-form The Outcast in two recent runs and now drop 5.5kg heading into Saturday’s contest over 1400m. This was her best distance in Perth, and she did continue to improve deeper into her preparation, so, with four runs under her belt now, she can go to a new level with no weight to slow her down.
Result (3rd - $5.50 to Place)

Sticking with DEITY who faces the one-week back-up and should appreciate the step up to 1100m after two 1000m runs. She caught the eye first-up and Blake Shinn went aboard last Saturday which looked a positive, and Shinn Sticks with her one week later. Firmer footing should see an improved effort and she won third-up last campaign in record time (1:09.97) over 1200m at Warwick Farm which indicates she’ll improve again. 
Result (2nd - $1.50 to Place)

Race 7 - 3:10PM WINTER STAKES (1400 METRES)
CRADLE MOUNTAIN was scratched from the Ramornie Handicap on Wednesday in preference for Rosehill where he is two from two – which is an interesting move seeing he’s never been tested over 1400m before. However, at his only run over 1300m, he did run 10 lengths above BM when defeating Dyslexic and Sir Bacchus. That figure is higher than Eckstein’s last start figure of 9.4 lengths above BM when beaten 1.4 lengths in the Group 1 Tatt’s Tiara. Eckstein and Firsthand are $6 equal favourites and I’d rather take $15 for Cradle Mountain to improve back at Rosehill over the slightly longer trip. 
Result (4th)

June 29

Race 2 - 12:05PM KENSEI HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
The Chris Waller-trained SO YOU WIN looks a standout on the Rosehill card and can make it three in a row as he steps up to 2000m. The track is a Heavy 9 as of Wednesday, but with a sunny 19 degrees predicted for Friday and Saturday, we should be back in the Soft range where So You Win has three wins from six attempts. The son of So You Think peaked fourth-up last preparation when scoring an impressive 3.3-length victory over Asterius, so there’s no reason to think he won’t improve again fourth-up, especially seeing his third-up run was after a four-week break. There shouldn’t be any traffic issues in the small field of seven, and he should be finishing best to score again. 
Result (2nd - $1.50 to Place)

Race 5 - 1:50PM STAYER'S CUP (3200 METRES)
10-year-old gelding Destiny’s Kiss will be looking to well and truly turn the clock back having won this race in 2014. He was beaten nine lengths in the Sydney Cup (3200m) in 2016 and finished 3rd in this race last year behind Plot Twist and Doukhan who were carrying 8kg less which equates to a 16-length advantage over that distance. With Chris Williams’ 3kg claim, Destiny’s Kiss gets in with 59.5kg which is only 3kg more than Doukhan this year. Destiny’s Kiss also bounced back to winning form last start going 5.7 lengths above Benchmark (BM) over 2400m. This is a strong figure and he rates a top hope, however, the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained AZURO brings undeniable form to this event and is nicely weighted on 56kg. The French-import finished 4.7 lengths from Steel Prince and Surprise Baby in the Andrew Ramsden (2800m) last start, and Azuro’s figures of 13 lengths above BM are clearly the strongest in this event. Last campaign he ran 11.6 lengths above BM over 2800m at Flemington and then ran 20.4 lengths above BM in the Sandown Cup (3200m) when beaten by Yogi. His 3rd placing over 2800m at Flemington was on a Heavy 8, so track conditions won’t be an issue. If he can produce another spike performance as he steps up to two miles, I can’t see anything beating him here.
Result (1st - $5.50)

Race 7 - 3:05PM CIVIC STAKES (1350 METRES)
One last time I swear!! I’ve tipped NEW UNIVERSE at his past two starts and drawing bad gates has been the death of him as he’s run the best sectionals in the race but has missed out finishing 3rd on both occasions – at decent Place odds might I add. Again, he’s drawn poorly in gate 14, but surely, he’s due for a change of luck. Fifth-up and at peak fitness, he gets another chance to break through. 
Result (unplaced)

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Rosehill Tips September 14 - Expert tips and Saturday best bets

Our form analysts preview racing from Rosehill on Saturday and gives his best bets for the meeting.

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