All Aged Stakes Trends: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the All Aged Stakes?
ALL AGED STAKES HISTORICAL TRENDS
How can the All Aged Stakes (1400m) trends help us find a winner in the second of the two Group 1 races at Randwick on Saturday?
The All Aged Stakes (1400m) has a rich history and despite the fact that it is not a part of The Championships at Randwick, it is one of the better races going around on the Australian Calendar, as it always attracts the top gallopers.
Recent winners include Pierata and Trapeze Artist, while in 2014 Dissident defeated Chautauqua. All Too Hard (2013), Atlantic Jewel (2012) and Hay List (2011) are other recent winners. Sunline took out the All Aged Stakes in 2000 and 2002, while other famous names to feature on the honour roll include the three-time winner, Ajax, as well as Tulloch, Tobin Bronze and Wakeful.
This year’s edition has attracted a classy field of gallopers and if we look at the trends of the race since 2004, when the distance of the All Aged Stakes was reduced from 1600m to 1400m, there are a few things to consider when it comes to picking a winner.
The 1400m feature has been a reasonably good one for favourite backers with eight of the past 16 winners scoring as the popular elect, including Trapeze Artist in 2018 as well as All Too Hard, Atlantic Jewel and Hay List. English won as a $6 chance in 2016. Last year, Osborne Bulls had to settle for runner-up at $2.80 as the $4.20 pop, Pierata, held on. Tivaci caused an upset by winning at $31 in 2017, while Dissident and Hana’s Goal (2014) won at the odds of $10.
But generally, it has been shorter priced contenders that have come to the fore. The average price of the winning horses since 2004 has been just $4.70. This year, the recent T.J.Smith Stakes (1200m) runners are favoured in early markets with Sportsbet with Santa Ana Lane at the $4.40 quote ahead of Pierata at $4.60 and Bivouac at $4.80. That trio ran 4th, 2nd and 6th respectively in the T.J.Smith.
The All Aged Stakes has always been at the tail end of the Sydney carnival and has attracted a tantalising mix of sprinters and milers from races such as the T.J.Smith Stakes, the Doncaster (1600m) and the George Ryder Stakes (1500m).
Eight of the winners since 2004 have had their previous run in the T.J.Smith, including Pierata last year and Trapeze Artist in 2018. The $11 chance, Tofane, ran a handy 5th in the T.J and is another to come out of that race this year.
Ahead of that horse is Dreamforce at the $9 quote. Dreamforce claimed the recent George Ryder Stakes ahead of The Bostonian and Te Akau Shark. Racing To Win (2008) and Paratroopers (2006) came out of the George Ryder when they won the All Aged Stakes. Both were runner-up in the Ryder.
The Doncaster Mile and the Futurity Stakes (1400m) have provided two winners each since 2004. Star Of The Seas was runner-up in the recent Doncaster, while Brandenburg (3rd) and Super Seth (8th) all come out of the Randwick mile.
Pierata is one of three horses aged five this year. The others are Olmedo and Star Of The Seas. The five-year-olds are one of the most successful age groups in the time period since 2004, accounting for five of the winners.
This years edition sees five three-year-olds in action, including the second emergency, Cosmic Force. The youngsters have also won on five occasions since 04.
Successful trainers in the All Aged Stakes include Gai Waterhouse, who has won three times since 2004 but is without a runner this year. Chris Waller had won once with Danleigh and has Mister Sea Wolf.
Gregory Hickman will be going for back to back wins with Pierata. Gerald Ryan trained Trapeze Artist in 2018 and has Standout. For fans of Pierata, no horse has won this race twice since 2004. Sunline won in 2000 and 2002.
Finally, it is interesting to note that in this race, it has been a slight advantage to draw out, as 11 of the 16 winners since 2004 have drawn in the outer five barriers. This year, Fasika, Olmedo, White Moss, Star Of The Seas and Cosmic Force have drawn out.
Selection according to the All Aged Stakes trends.
On trends, it is hard to split the top three in the market as favourites do well here, while the T.J.Smith is the more proven of the form. While no horse has won back to back All Aged Stakes, Pierata does tick enough boxes to suggest that he can achieve that feat this year.