All-Star Mile Tips – can Mr Quickie draw Alligator Blood?
Looking for 2020 All-Star Mile Tips? Our form expert previews the $5 million Caulfield feature and gives his top selection for the race.
ALL-STAR MILE PREVIEW
With the exception of a few that have hardly earned a spot among this field, the 2020 All-Star Mile has attracted a stellar line-up of 15 runners and three emergencies.
Alligator Blood is the $2.70 favourite, and deservedly so considering he’s won 10 from 11 starts with his only defeat coming in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) at the hands of Super Seth.
Of the 16 runners, I could see any one of 10 taking out the rich feature, but we have to narrow it down to just one.
THE FAVOURITE & THE ROUGHIE
Obviously, Alligator Blood is at the head of this list following his dominant last start victory in the Group 1 Australia Guineas (1600m).
The only possible knock you could have on the son of All Too Hard is the fact his only defeat came at this track and distance.
He ran a personal best last start and went 12.7 lengths quicker than standard BM which is the second strongest last start figure in the race.
Surprisingly, it was the third emergency Admiral’s Joker that recorded the strongest last start BM figure when going 12.9 lengths quicker than BM as he finished 1.8 lengths from Fifty Stars in the Blamey Stakes (1600m) at Flemington.
Admiral’s Joker ran 1:34.92 which is identical to Alligator Blood’s time at the track and trip, and considering Admiral’s Joker is $91 and Alligator Blood is $2.60, I know which runner is over the odds.
However, Admiral’s Joker is unlikely to get a run, but he should be respected wherever he lines up next.
OTHER LEADING CONTENDERS
The Kiwi mare Melody Belle was impressive first-up in the Futurity Stakes (1400m) where I didn’t think she was suited, but having seen her handle Caulfield without an issue, and knowing she’ll improve second-up, she rates as a massive danger.
Black Heart Bart closed off nicely in that race, and if Caulfield was a Good 3 on Saturday, I’d have something on him.
However, with 10 to 15mm of rain predicted on Friday, I can’t see Caulfield racing on anything better than a Good 4 – and Black Heart Bart needs a Good 3 to show his absolute best.
I tipped Streets Of Avalon at $27 in the Futurity and he duly saluted for us – yay!! And while I can’t blame trainer Shane Nichols for having a throw at the stumps here, I can’t have Streets Of Avalon over a mile with what looks like being a hot tempo.
I’m a big fan of Kolding but have Melody Belle clearly ahead of him based on their last runs, and while I tipped Fierce Impact last start in the Chipping Norton and he ran a brave 3rd behind Te Akau Shark, I’m reluctantly jumping ship as I thought that was his chance.
The Grant and Alana Williams pair rate highly and it’s interesting to note William Pike takes the ride on Regal Power over Superstorm who was runner-up to Alligator Blood in the Guineas.
So Si Bon always seems to put in a big run when you least expect it and I wouldn’t be leaving him out of multiples, while Flit has the class to surprise if the race is run to suit.
There is one more galloper among my leading chances, and it’s the Phillip Stokes-trained Mr Quickie that I’ve settled on as my top pick.
But we’ll have a closer look at him after some speed map analysis.
HOT EARLY SPEED PREDICTED
Many underestimate the importance of the speed map and peak BM figures, but this is exactly how we landed Streets Of Avalon in the Futurity – he mapped to control the race and had a peak pattern and high figure to suggest he was a top chance.
The speed map here looks fairly hot.
Alligator Blood and Streets Of Avalon will be looking to come across from gates 10 and 11 while Black Heart Bart and Spanish Reef look like settling behind that pair.
Aristia sat just off the speed in the Empire Rose, and being second-up, I think she’ll be right on the pace too keeping them honest.
My map has Mr Quickie and Melody Belle three pairs back, and this is where I think the challengers to Alligator Blood will launch from.
ALL-STAR MILE TIPS & VERDICT
When we look at peak BM figures, Fierce Impact and Streets Of Avalon have produced two of the four strongest figures in this race when going 15.2 and 15.1 lengths above BM.
Mr Quickie holds the second strongest BM figure in the race when going 15.9 lengths quicker than BM when finishing 3rd in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m).
He was first-up on that occasion and was severely held up in the straight, and I have no doubt he would have gone close to winning with a clear run, and he would have posted a much stronger BM figure.
Stokes has given him two barrier trials in preparation for Saturday, and he also had two similar trials leading into the Makybe Diva.
Big race jockey Damien Oliver has been aboard in both trials and gets the ride on Saturday from barrier 4.
With any luck getting clear at the right time, I think Mr Quickie should have the right run and the powerful turn of foot needed to claim victory in this race.
For the record, So Si Bon holds the strongest BM figure in the race when going 17.6 lengths above BM when runner-up to Scales Of Justice in the Memsie Stakes.
As I said before, he can bob up when you least expect it, and considering he’s at his peak, he’s worth an each-way bet and comes up as my best roughie in the race.
All-Star Mile Tips: