All-Star Mile Tips & Preview
ALL-STAR MILE TIPS & PREVIEW
Looking for All-Star Mile tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2022 All-Star Mile at Moonee Valley.
Tips will be available following the barrier draw. See our 2021 preview below for an example of what to expect.
It is a couple of mares in Arcadia Queen ($3.40) and Probabeel ($4.40) that head the market after the barrier draw but alot will depend on what happens with the weather, with 10-15mm of rain forecast for Saturday.
The school of thought is that those two are better on top of the ground and any rain might bring the likes of Russian Camelot ($8.50) and the Cox Plate (2040m) winner, Sir Dragonet ($15) into the equation.
That quartet clashed over the 2040m last year and Sir Dragonet had the answers, going 13 lengths faster than standard when taking out the weight-for-age championship, while Russian Camelot fought on for 3rd. Arcadia Queen (5th) and Probabeel (7th) were among the beaten brigade.
The 1600m is a different dynamic and Probabeel is unbeaten this preparation, picking up the Futurity Stakes (1400m) at her most recent run. She went 14.2 lengths faster than standard in that race and left four other All Star Mile rivals in her wake, including Arcadia Queen, who worked home from the tail to finish half a length away.
Does the latter have the improvement in her? At her last campaign, Arcadia Queen didn’t quite hit her straps until later on and finished runner-up at her second start of that campaign behind Pretty Brazen over the 1400m in a mares. I’m not writing her off and we can expect her to be more forward this time in.
But it is Probabeel that improved a whopping 10.6 lengths on benchmark figures at her third run last time when stepping out from the 1400m to the 1600m to claim the Epsom Handicap before missing out in the Cox Plate.
Others that come into consideration on benchmark figures are Mr Quickie, who went 12 lengths faster than standard when working home solidly in the Futurity first up last time. He normally holds his rating second up and races well at at the trip.
Last year’s Toorak is a perfect case study as he went 15.4 lengths faster than standard when winning that Group 1 with a big weight when third up last spring.
Russian Camelot heads into this first up and went eight lengths faster than standard when caught wide en route to finishing runner-up in the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) last spring. He then went 14 lengths faster than standard when winning the Underwood Stakes (1800m).
It is hard to make a case for a number of the others on figures. Lunar Fox represents a bit of X-factor and set a personal best of going 10 lengths faster in his Australian Guineas (1600m) triumph but I am willing to bypass him, while it is hard to get a gauge on Sir Dragonet as he was second up in a Melbourne Cup (3200m) in the spring, while he went just 4.2 lengths faster when 7th in the Orr Stakes over the unsuitable trip when resuming recently.
Then there is the question of who will settle in the first few. The rail will be in the True, which will give most horses a chance but it is always preferable to be in the first half of the field at the Valley over the 1600m.
Greysful Glamour will roll forward, while Streets Of Avalon and Shout The Bar won’t be far away. A number of the others like to get back. I wouldn’t mind seeing Damian Lane settling handy with Probabeel and if she can slot in from barrier 10 it could be game over.
The tempo doesn’t look to be too exerting and that should play into her hands. Russian Camelot is one that will settle in the first half and has drawn perfectly in barrier 2 and might be the forgotten horse with Damien Oliver on board. Any rain brings him into the equation.
All-Star Mile Tips & Verdict
With luck in running, I think Probabeel can get the job done, while I will also be having something on Russian Camelot, regardless of what the weather does.