Australian Derby Tips: Who history points to winning

Adam Cusworth in Australian Derby 2 Apr 2020
  • Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Australian Derby?
Angel Of Truth won the Australian Derby in 2019 Angel Of Truth won the Australian Derby in 2019

How can history help us sort out our Australian Derby (2400m) tips at Randwick on Saturday?

One of the oldest races in Australia is the Australian Derby and the classic race for the three-year-olds has been won by the likes of Phar Lap and Kingston Town, while recent winners include Levendi, Mongolian Khan, Criterion and It’s A Dundeel.

In taking a look at the recent trends of this race, there are a few things for you to consider when it comes to sorting out your Australian Derby tips. The ideal lead up form has generally been the Rosehill Guineas (2000m), run at Rosehill the fortnight prior to the Derby. 12 of the past 20 winners have come out of that race and three have completed the double. That trio are Criterion in 2014, Eremein in 2005 and Starcraft in 2004.

This year, Castlevecchio claimed the Rosehill Guineas. Other Derby contenders to come out of that race are Shadow Hero (4th), Warning (5th), Sherwood Forest (7th), Chains Of Honour (8th) and Get The Idea (10th).

Of the remaining eight winners since 2000, five have come out of the Tulloch Stakes (2000m), including Jon Snow last year, while Ethiopia won the Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) prior to his win in 2012. The other two were New Zealand gallopers that had their previous run in their homeland, including, Tavago, who claimed the NZ Derby (2400m) prior to his win in this race in 2016, while Nom Du Jeu also raced in NZ before winning the Derby in 2008. The 2017 winner, Jon Snow, ran 3rd in the NZ Derby before claiming the Tulloch Stakes.

Interestingly, the past three winners of the Derby claimed the Tulloch Stakes a week prior. This year, Quick Thinker claimed that lead up from Zebrowski and Diasonic. With the exception of Fairway in 2000, every horse that has gone on to win the Derby has finished inside the top five at their previous start. This year, Castlevecchio is a $3.30 favourite in early markets with Sportsbet ahead of Shadow Hero at $3.60 and Warning at $5. Quick Thinker is at $8.50, while Zebrowski heads the rest at $12.

It should be noted that it hasn’t all been one-way traffic for favourites in this race. Only four of the last 20 leading fancies have saluted including Criterion and It’s A Dundeel, the latter of whom won at $1.25 in 2013. Horses to miss out over the years as the popular elect include Gingernuts in 2017 as well as Jimmy Choux in 2011, Carnegie Express in 2002 and Blackfriars in 2000.

The average starting price of the winners has been $9.20. Seven winners since 2000 have paid more than $10, including Angel Of Truth last year, as well as Ethiopia, Roman Emperor and Nom Du Jeu. Warning and Sherwood Forest have drawn barriers 10 and 12 respectively. Only three winners since 2000 have drawn in double digits.

Eight of the 20 winners have drawn between barrier’s 1 and 3. This year, Diasonic, Skiddaw and Sacramento have drawn those spots. The most successful trainer in the race since 2000 has been Murray Baker with four winners and the Kiwi horseman saddles up Quick Thinker this year.

Horses from across the ditch have won the race seven times since 2000 and are also represented by Sherwood Forest this year.

Australian Derby tips based on trends.

Long term trends suggest to go with the Rosehill Guineas but in recent times it is the Tulloch Stakes. Quick Thinker ticks boxes as he is also a Kiwi contender and is close to the long term odds that the winners have paid in this race.

Prediction
Quick Thinker $8.50 Bet now!