Australian Derby Tips & Preview
AUSTRALIAN DERBY TIPS & PREVIEW
Looking for Australian Derby tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2022 Australian Derby at Randwick.
Tips will be available following the barrier draw. See our 2021 preview below for an example of what to expect.
The Australian Derby sees the three-year-old stayers in action and this year’s edition shapes as a competitive affair.
It is the filly, Montefilia, who heads the betting at the $3.40 quote with ladbrokes ahead of Sky Lab at $5. The New Zealander, Rocket Spade, is at the $8, while Khoehkoe and Lions Roar (both $9.50) are the others under double figure odds in the 16 horse field.
Five runners come out of the recent Rosehill Guineas (2000m) that was taken out by Mo’unga. Sky Lab, Montefilia and Lion’s Roar filled the first four that day. The winner out of that drops back in trip and will be in action in the Doncaster Mile (1600m) later on.
Sky Lab went 4.8 lengths faster than standard benchmark in that race, which are the best last start figures of any runner in the Derby. The son of Real Impact settled midfield and chased hard but was rolled by a good one.
Montefilia produced what most regard as the run of the race. The Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) winner and Kennedy Oaks (2500m) placegetter from the spring was stepping up sharply in distance from the 1400m of the Surround Stakes and was posted wide without cover for much of the race. But she kept coming and produced the fastest last 200m.
Lion’s Roar was luckless en route to finishing 4th and took out the Randwick Guineas (1600m) at his start prior, going nine lengths faster than standard benchmark in the process. Montefilia heads into this third up and the question might be if she has the fitness to run out a strong 2400m.
At her third run last time she went just 0.4 lengths faster than standard over the 1400m in a slowly run race but improved when up in trip to go 12 lengths faster than standard in the Oaks.
They are the best figures that any horse in this race has produced in their careers to date. Khoehkoe and Young Werther went 10 lengths faster than standard in a fast run Autumn Classic (1800m) at Caulfield earlier this campaign.
Khoekhoe headed to the Rosehill Guineas with the five weeks in between runs. He settled up front but faded late in to 6th position. At his third run last time he took out the Super Impose Stakes (1800m) at Flemington ahead of a luckless Young Werther.
Young Werther then started as favourite in the Victoria Derby (2500m) before running 3rd. His most recent start came in the Tulloch Stakes and he placed 3rd behind Yaletown in that race. Yaletown went just three lengths faster than standard benchmark when winning that race.
Favreau was rising from a BenchMark 64 race at Kembla Grange and acquitted himself well when running 4th, beaten just over a length, while The Frontman, overraced when dropping out of it into 8th position.
He was placed in the Group 1 New Zealand Derby (2400m) prior to that, while he is trained by the Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman combination. That team were successful in the race with Jon Snow in 2017 and Baker has picked up three of the past eight editions of this race.
12 of the 21 winners of the Australian Derby since the year 2000 have come out of the Rosehill Guineas with a further six to have come out of the Tulloch, including last year’s winner, Quick Thinker.
Is there a diamond in the rough that comes out of another lead up? Explosive Jack was thrashed by Grandslam in the Alistair Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley but did go eight lengths faster than standard in that race.
The son of Jakkalberry has since produced the best late sectionals behind Liquero when runner-up in the Bendigo St Leger Trial (2200m). He might be worth a play at the each-way odds and the Maher/Eustace team have a terrific record in races at 2000m and beyond.
Rocket Spade is the New Zealand Derby winner and has since picked up an easier race over the 1600m. We know the Kiwi stayers must be respected.
Australian Derby Tips & Verdict
The Rosehill Guineas and the Tulloch Stakes are normally the places to look for this race but I am not quite convinced about those two this year. I am inclined to have something each-way on Explosive Jack. He has attracted support at the each-way quote and wasn’t far from Young Werther two starts ago before running home well at Bendigo last time, producing the fastest last 200m to get within a length, while there was a three length gap back to Salto Angel. The 3rd placegetter out of that did finish ahead of Montefilia in last year’s Kennedy Oaks (2500m). He has attracted support in the early betting and might have scope for improvement.