Australian Guineas Tips & Preview
Our expert Australian Guineas Tips and Predictions provides an in-depth analysis of the three-year-old Flemington. feature.
Our Australian Guineas tips for 2022 will be available following the barrier draw. Below is our 2021 preview:
Australian Guineas Tips & Preview
10 runners in the final field come through the CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) which has rated highest of the lead-ups, and out of that race, four runners stand out.
The winner, Tagaloa, and runner-up, Aysar, made their own luck on speed and battled bravely.
Tagaloa recorded a personal best (PB) going 14.3 lengths quicker than standard benchmark (BM) and he must be considered on that effort.
However, his only run over 1600m is a concern as he finished 18 lengths last behind Ole Kirk and Aysar in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas.
Aysar on the other hand is proven at the trip and has drawn ideally in barrier 2 for Damian Lane.
Cherry Tortoni travelled wide in the CS Hayes, was held up for 100m down the straight and went past Mo’unga before peaking on his run with 125m to go as Mo’unga gained the upper hand again.
This was Cherry Tortoni’s first run since finishing 4th in the Victoria Derby (2500m) and he’s sure to come on from that.
Dom To Shoot was slow to begin but did enjoy a soft run along the inside before angling out wide and getting a clear crack at them as he ground home and also appeared to peak late.
That was his first run for two months so he should take plenty of improvement into Saturday’s event.
Outside of the CS Hayes, three other runners rate highly and should be considered.
Zou Dancer has won three from four this campaign and comes off a strong last start win in the Vanity Stakes (1400m) where she defeated Personal by 4.75 lengths and ran 1:22.32 which rated 10.4 lengths quicker than standard.
Both her overall time and BM performance rate four lengths below Tagaloa, and her final 600m, 400m and 200m were also below the colts and geldings after going at a similar tempo to the 600m mark.
However, this was her first run in six weeks, and she can improve off that with 2kg less on Saturday.
Poland also comes off a first-up win where he won the Autumn Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield and ran 1:23.00 in a performance that rated 10 lengths quicker than standard.
Overall time and sectionals where slower than Tagaloa and Zou Dancer in their respective events but he did go quicker in the early stages.
His previous 1400m time at Flemington was much slower and he failed over 1600m so I’m inclined to shuffle him toward the bottom of the list.
Ole Kirk is the other that rates highly, and I’m not sure if I can forgive his last start effort in the Futurity Stakes (1400m) where he finished last and had every chance to run on.
Tagaloa ran quicker time than the Futurity winner Probabeel, and Ole Kirk finished 6.5 lengths from her.
With limited opportunities, fillies have a great record in this race, and previous winners include Mystic Journey (2019), Mosheen (2012), Shamrocker (2011) and Miss Finland (2007).
Zou Dancer is likely to take up the running here and that could also leave her a sitting duck for those running on.
I think the CS Hayes form is the right form to follow, and with question marks over Tagaloa third-up at this trip and Cherry Torntoni being fit enough yet, I’m leaning toward Aysar and Dom To Shoot.
I think Dom To Shoot has more room for improvement out of that pair, and you can’t argue with jockey’s form having finished runner-up in two Group 1s last Saturday as well as dead heating for 1st in the other.
William Pike should give him every opportunity from gate 7, and the way he stormed home over a mile and 1800m in G2 and G1 events in Perth suggests the Flemington mile will be right up his alley.
A tough race as it should be, but my Australian Guineas Tips for 2021 have Dom To Shoot on top.