Australian Guineas Tips – Super effort needed
Looking for Australian Guineas Tips on Saturday February 29? Our form expert previews the Flemington feature and gives his best bet for the race.
AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS PREVIEW:
What a cracking race this has turned out to be. And despite having just eight runners, finding the winner is no sure thing.
Firstly, the only horse I think we can safely knock out is Commodus who rates 20 lengths below the rest – I just can’t see him beating a runner home.
The favourite, Alligator Blood, is a true warrior and he just knows how to win.
Catalyst nearly had his measure last time and Chenier was closing late while Dalasan and Soul Patch weren’t too far away and could improve enough to bridge that gap.
Alabama Express surprised most by winning the CF Orr Stakes, and that race rated high, but I have my doubts on him being as effective over 1600m.
The Perth galloper Super Storm also rated high winning last start, and while most may assume this is just tougher, his BM performance rating was only just below Alligator Blood and co last start, and he could have more improvement in him than most.
GUINEAS VERDICT & BEST BET
While most are split between Alligator Blood and Catalyst, and a few others are on the ‘Chenier train’ or Alabama Express, I’m looking outside the obvious and going for the Perth gelding Superstorm.
He’s the only horse to have ever broken 11 seconds (10.94) for his final furlong, and he did it over 1600m when 5th in the WA Guineas.
The son of Sebring settled near the rear and had to dive back to the inside late in the straight where he rattled home to be beaten less than a length but was in front of the field 20m past the post.
They went 10 lengths slower than BM to the 600m in the WA Guineas and Superstorm wasn’t suited coming from the rear.
First-up this time in, he posted a new personal best going 9.7 lengths quicker than BM over 1500m at Ascot.
He went 5.3 lengths quicker to the 600m mark and 4.4 lengths quicker in the final 600m.
That early speed is far superior to that we saw in the CS Hayes Stakes where Alligator Blood led at a ‘Very Slow’ tempo going below BM to the 600m.
In the past four years, the Australian Guineas has been run between 5.5 and 12 lengths above BM to the 600m.
If the race is run at its usual tempo, I can see Superstorm settling four lengths off the pace and that should give him every chance to run on and swoop over the top of them.
2020 Australian Guineas Tips:
READ: Flemington Best Bets