Australian Guineas Tips: Who history points to winning

Adam Cusworth in Australian Guineas 27 Feb 2020
  • C.S.Hayes Stakes is the tried and true lead up
  • Favourites have a poor record in this race
Memsie Stakes odds Mystic Journey wins the 2018 Australian Guineas

The Australian Guineas (1600m) is the leading race for the three-year-olds in the Melbourne autumn and has been won by the likes of Shamus Award, Miss Finland, Apache Cat and Mahogany.

Last year, the $1 million affair was taken out by the Tasmanian filly, Mystic Journey, and this year’s edition sees a small but select field in action. If we analyse the trends of the $1 million Group 1 since the year 2000, there are a few things to keep in mind when it comes to finding a winner.

This year’s race is highly anticipated after Alligator Blood and Catalyst went to war last time in the C.S.Hayes Stakes (1400m). Alligator Blood claimed that round but it is Catalyst that has been installed as a $2.40 favourite in early markets with sportsbet, while Alligator Blood is at $3.10.

Alabama Express and Chenier are both at $7, while Superstorm ($16), Dalasun ($17), Soul Patch ($26) and the rank outsider, Commodus ($151), are the others. For fans of Catalyst, it should be noted that only two favourite’s have won the race since 2008 and they were the 2017 winner, Hey Doc, and Mystic Journey.

Shamus Award won as a $4.50 second favourite in 2014, while in 2016, Palentino, scored at the odds of $9. Grunt started at $5.50 in 2018 and was too good for the favourite in the race, Cliff’s Edge, who ran 7th.

For those that like an each-way wager on horses that are priced at double figure odds or better, there have been a few ‘blowout’ winners since 2000 with Ferlax (2013) and Rock Classic (2009) both scoring at odds of $17, while Shamrocker won at the odds of $31 in 2011.

10 of the past 20 winners have been colts, while six have been geldings and four were fillies, including Mosheen (2012), Shamrocker (2011) and Miss Finland (2007) as well as Mystic Journey. This year, half of the field of eight are colts, while the other half are geldings. There are no fillies in action in 2020. Alligator Blood and Catalyst are among the geldings, while Alabama Express and Chenier are a couple of the colts.

The Guineas has changed complexion in recent times with capacity, or near capacity, fields accepting for the race. Smaller fields were the order of the day from 2000-2010.

In recent year’s, some runners have copped interference including Kermadec, who ran into traffic in 2015, while Tarzino was an unlucky runner in 2016. However, Grunt was able to win from gate 16 in 2018, while Mystic Journey had no problems navigating clear air from barrier 1 last year. This year, there are only eight runners but barriers can still play a very important role in this race and nine of the 20 winners since 2000 have drawn between barrier’s 1 and 4. Soul Patch, Alligator Blood, Dalasun and Catalyst occupy those spots.

The most successful trainer in the race since the year 2000 has been Mick Price, who has won the Guineas on three occasions in that time period. Gai Waterhouse and Danny O’Brien have won the Australian Guineas twice since 2000. Non of that trio have a runner. Leading hoops include Damien Oliver, Craig Newitt, Craig Williams, Danny Nikolic and Noel Callow, who have each won the race twice since the year 2000. Oliver is on board Chenier.

This year the Guineas is somewhat similar to the 2006 edition when the local horse, Apache Cat, kicked back and fought off the favoured New Zealander, Darci Brahma. Will we see a similar scenario on Saturday?
Finally, horses to have won the Australian Guineas have come out of a variety of races but the C.S Hayes Stakes (1400m) is usually the best guide.

Both races are run at Flemington a fortnight prior to the Guineas. The C S Hayes Stakes has provided four of the last five winners with three of those completing the double.

Selections based on trends:
Alligator Blood

Prediction
Alligator Blood $3.20 Bet now!