Australian Oaks Tips & Preview
Looking for Australian Oaks tips for Saturday, April 11? Our form expert has previewed the fillies staying feature and given his top selection for the race.
AUSTRALIAN OAKS TIPS & PREVIEW 2020
Just two last start form lines to assess heading into Saturday’s Group 1 Australian Oaks (2400m) at Royal Randwick.
All 14 fillies come through either the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) on a Soft 7 at Rosehill on March 28, or the Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) on a Heavy 8 at Randwick on April 4.
Unfortunately, these races were run completely different and it’ hard to get a good guide on strength of form with sectional times.
Colette won the Adrian Knox in 2:07.10 and there were no other 2000m races on the day to compare this too.
However, the performance rated 12.9 lengths quicker than standard BM which is the strongest last start figure of any Oaks hopeful.
ASSESSING THE VINERY FORM
Shout The Bar won the Vinery Stud Stakes in 2:08.28 which is well below the overall time of Quick Thinker (2:05.75) who won the Tulloch Stakes before backing up a week later to win the Australian Derby (2400m).
Shout The Bar’s time was also well below Night’s Watch (2:05.57) who won the Neville Selwood.
The slow time in the Vinery can be mostly attributed to the lack of early speed as the race was run 11 lengths slower than standard to the 600m.
Shout The Bar came home 9.5 lengths quicker than standard and Probabeel recorded the slickest final 600m (34.56), 400m (22.68) and 200m (11.44) of the race which rated 10.9 lengths quicker than standard.
I have two problems with this form.
Firstly, Shout The Bar owned the race and never gave anything a chance after going so slow early.
Secondly, it was such a sit and sprint, we really have no idea if any of these fillies can actually stay a trip.
3rd placed Nudge possibly has more upside than most, and on face value, Probabeel was the most impressive being held up behind the speed before making ground in a race that favoured the leader.
But that doesn’t mean we can discount Shout The Bar if she controls it from the front again.
ASSESSING THE ADRIAN KNOX FORM
There is only one horse to talk about here as the James Cummings-trained Colette simply brained them.
There was no waiting around in this event as the race was run 11.6 lengths quicker than standard to the 600m.
Despite going so quick early, Colette was still able to come home 3.7 lengths quicker than standard from the 600m as she ran 37.18, 24.70 and 12.48 for her final 600m, 400m and 200m sectionals.
Colette’s overall time rated seven lengths quicker than shout the bar, but her final 600m was 15 lengths slower than Probabeel.
Colette can produce slick sectionals, and her quickest final 200m of 11.26 over 1600m at Kembla Grange on a Good 4 is identical to Probabeel’s best final 200m where she went 11.26 over 1400m at Randwick on a Good 4.
SO, WHO WILL WIN THE AUSTRALIAN OAKS?
Having gone quick early last start and still being strong through the line, I have no doubt Colette can stay, and she’s my Australian Oaks Tip.
She’s proven she can run quick sectionals, and her breeding (HALLOWED CROWN X LIBRETTO (IRE)) suggests she’ll excel over 2400m.
Her BM figures also indicate this as she went 1.4 lengths quicker than BM over 1885m and then went 4.4 lengths slower than BM when dropping back to 1600m.
We saw a massive spike in BM performance last start going 12.9 lengths quicker than BM over 2000m, and this trend points to another spike in performance as she gets out to 2400m.
There’s not much of her, and the quick back-up is the main concern, but as long as she handles the back-up, she’s the one to beat.
Best odds for our Australian Oaks Tips are with Sportsbet: