Australian Oaks Tips & Preview
AUSTRALIAN OAKS TIPS & PREVIEW
Looking for Australian Oaks tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2022 Australian Oaks at Randwick.
Tips will be available following the barrier draw. See our 2021 preview below for an example of what to expect.
A field of 10 fillies will be going around for their shot at Group 1 glory and it is Harmony Rose that has been installed as a $3.40 favourite with ladbrokes after the barrier draw on Tuesday, just ahead of Montefilia at $3.80.
The last start Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) winner, Hungry Heart, is at $5, while the Kiwi galloper, Amarelinha, is at $5. Duais heads the rest at the $12 quote.
The Vinery Stud Stakes is always on of the key lead up races to the Oaks and has provided nine of the past 20 winners. Verry Elleegant claimed the double in 2019.
In this year’s edition, Hungry Heart settled last and enjoyed a nice cart into the race with Harmony Rose setting a very solid tempo in front, going more than 15 lengths faster that standard benchmark up until the last 600m of the race.
Harmony Rose did well to stick on to land in the runner-up slot but it was Hungry Heart that produced the best late splits. Those two cleared out by nearly three lengths from Impecunious with the winner going 9.8 lengths faster than standard benchmark.
They are the best last start figures of any runner. Only Montefilia has produced better career figures when going more than 12 lengths faster than standard when 3rd to Personal in last year’s Kennedy Oaks (2500m).
She went 9.9 lengths faster than standard when claiming the Flight Stakes (1600m) and 9.6 lengths faster when on the one week backup after that race when successful in the Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick.
She went just 4.6 lengths faster than standard benchmark when 4th in last weekend’s Australian Derby (2400m). While she has been able to back up in the past, that performance is a slight concern for mine.
Four runners come out of the Adrian Knox Quality (2000m), a race that Colette used as her platform when winning the Oaks last year. Six winners since 2000 have come out of that race.
I wouldn’t write off the fillies from the Adrian Knox and Duais went 8.7 lengths faster than standard when taking out that race on Day One of The Championships. The daughter of Shamus Award was stepping up from a BenchMark 72 win at Warwick Farm over the 1600m and improved five lengths on her previous best figures.
Bargain produced a real eye-catcher in that race and produced the fastest last 400m and fastest last 200m, coming from last to get within half a length of the winner.
The X-factor in the race is the Kiwi filly, Amarelinha. She has won her past three in fine style for trainer Jamie Richards, including the New Zealand Oaks (2400m). Two of the past five winners have come out of the NZ Oaks with Bonneval completing the double in 2017.
Finally, it will be interesting to see what the pace is like come Saturday. Harmony Rose and Sassyav are the only two in the race that shape as the speed influence, while Duais might not be far away. Montefilia might look to settle handy this time around and did just that in the Oaks last year when sticking on. Any pace in the race will suit Hungry Heart and Bargain, provided that pair can stay the trip.
Australian Oaks Tips & Verdict
This is a wide-open Oaks and I will be having something on Amarelinha, who is proven over the 2400m, while the Kiwi’s always race well when coming over here. The best roughie in the race is Bargain, who comes into the equation after finishing off nicely in the Adrian Knox last weekend.