Australian Oaks Trends: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Australian Oaks?
AUSTRALIAN OAKS HISTORICAL TRENDS
How can the Australian Oaks (2400m) trends help us find a winner in the first of the four Group 1 races at Randwick on Saturday?
The Australian Oaks (2400m) brings together the best staying fillies and is the first of four Group 1 races on Day Two of The Championships at Royal Randwick.
Last year, the Oaks was taken out by Verry Ellegant and the honour roll features some guns of the Australian turf including Surround, who won in 1977, while Leilani (1974) and Light Fingers (1965) are other former winners.
Amazingly, the modern-day superstar of the turf, Winx, went down as a $2.75 fancy behind Gust Of Wind in 2015. She then went on to win every start for the remainder of her career, including four Cox Plates (2040m), a Doncaster (1600m) and three Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m).
In order to help you find a winner, we have gone back through the record books to take a look at the Australian Oaks trends since the year 2000 and it points to the following.
The best lead up races have been the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) and the Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) with a combined total of 15 out of the past 20 winners of the Oaks coming out of either of those two races. Nine of those were from the Vinery Stud and six from the Adrian Knox.
Interestingly, two of the last four winners, Bonneval and Sofia Rosa, came over from New Zealand after taking out the New Zealand Oaks (2400m). The past two winners came out of the Vinery Stud with Verry Elleegant completing the double last year.
This year, a number of the leading contenders come out of the Vinery Stud Stakes, but the race favourite is the last start Adrian Knox winner, Colette at $4. Probabeel, who finished runner-up in the Vinery Stud is at $4, just ahead of her conqueror from that race, Shout The Bar, at $4.50. 16 of the past 20 winners have finished in the top four at their previous start and seven were last start winners.
Probabeel is the only Kiwi galloper in the race this year. Rising Romance (2014) and Daffodil (2009) are other Kiwi gallopers to have won the Oaks since 2000. Rising Romance was trained by Donna Logan at the time and had her previous start in the Vinery Stud, while Daffodil was unplaced at Group 3 level in her homeland.
The Oaks has not been a great race for favourite backers, with just Verry Elleegant, Unforgotten, Bonneval, Streama, Serenade Rose and Wild Iris winning as favourites since 2000. The average price of the winning horses has been $8.40 and some roughies to have won the event include Absolutely at $31 in 2011, while Rena’s Lady scored at $21 in 2007.
Probabeel will have to do it the hard way after drawing barrier 12 but connections can take some confidence from the fact that 11 of the 20 winners since 2000 have drawn out in the second half of the field, including Verry Elleegant and Sofia Rosa, who both drew 11 of 14 when they won. Rose Archway drew 12 of 12 in 2001, while Serenade Rose was the widest of nine runners in 2006.
The most successful barrier since 2000 has been 5, providing three winners. This year, Quintessa has drawn that spot. Leading trainers in the race include Guy Walter, Chris Waller and Gai Waterhouse with three winners apiece. Walter passed away in 2014 and had saddled up Streama, Wild Iris and Republic Lass in previous years.
Waterhouse has enjoyed success in the race with Once Were Wild (2010), Sunday Joy (2003) and Coco Cabana (2000). This year, alongside Adrian Bott, she takes Shout The Br and Dorothy Of Oz into the race. Waller has Nudge and Toffee Tongue.
Successful hoops include Hugh Bowman, who has ridden five winners, while James McDonald, Glen Boss and Nash Rawiler have two apiece. Of that group, McDonald is booked to ride Nudge, Boss is on the favourite, Colette, while Rawiler is on Contessa.
Selections according to the Australian Oaks trends.
On trends, you could make a case for a few of these but Shout The Bar and Nudge tick the most boxes. Nudge just shades Shout The Bar at the $8