Black Caviar Lightning Tips – Is an upset on the cards?
2020 Black Caviar Lightning Tips:
Nature Strip has been installed the $1.50 favourite for Saturday’s Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) at Flemington, and the fact is, he is under the odds.
Most punters, like myself, will automatically assume that Nature Strip will be too speedy for this lot as he aims for five from five down the Flemington straight.
He’s trialled sensationally twice in Sydney and has impressed Flemington trackwork watchers during the week with his effortless work.
However, on figures, he’s far from over the line yet, and Redzel is the one to beat him.
I remember watching Nature Strip’s barrier trials last campaign and thinking he was a moral heading into the Concorde Stakes (1000m) first-up at Randwick.
His trial looked far superior to Redzel and there was no way I could see the aging Redzel getting the better of the imposing Nature Strip.
As it turns out, Nature Strip overraced and cost himself a chance of winning, and Redzel led all the way to defeat Pierata and Graff while Nature Strip was a further 2.7 lengths back in 4th place.
Despite racing as a seven-years-old last spring and as a six-year-old the season before, Redzel’s last three first-up performances, have rated 16.8, 15.5 and 17.6 lengths quicker than standard BM – so he’s ultra-consistent.
Compare that to Nature Strip who has gone 15.9, 16.2 and 14.4 lengths quicker than BM, and there is little between them – but Redzel still has the slightly stronger performances.
It wouldn’t surprise to see Nature Strip win on Saturday, but after looking at the facts and figures, it wouldn’t surprise to see Redzel win either.
And at $7.50 compared to $1.50, I know which one I’d rather have a bet on.
I have a lot of respect for Gytrash who is an emerging talent, but Craig Williams has ridden him in his last two runs and opted to go with Loving Gabby who must also be respected.
Tactics will play a big part on Saturday, as will Nature Strip’s manners, and the one true consistent in this event is Redzel first-up over 1000m.