Black Caviar Lightning Tips & Preview
Looking for Black Caviar Lightning tips and predictions? Our form analyst previews the 1000m Flemington sprint and gives his best bets.
Our 2022 Black Caviar Lightning tips will be available following the barrier draw. Below is our 2021 preview:
Black Caviar Lightning Tips & Preview
Nature Strip flopped as the $1.45 favourite last year when finishing 4th of seven behind $21 chance Gytrash.
Nature Strip was runner-up to a rampant Bivouac in the VRC Classic (1200m) before going for a break, and Bivouac also returns here and has been installed the $2.70 favourite.
There should be plenty of speed early with Nature Strip jumping from barrier 2 while Pippie jumps from gate 4 and will be looking to make it five from five first-up.
Fabergino, Bivouac and Swats That will also be up there vying for prime position, and early tactics may decide the outcome of this race.
Which Horses Excel Down The Flemington Straight?
Nature Strip has won four from six at Flemington and Bivouac has won two from three with his only defeat being behind Exceedance in the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) on a Soft 7.
Chris Waller’s filly, September Run, has won three from three at the track but is yet to be tested over the short 1000m trip at Headquarters.
Six-year-old, grey mare, Fabergino is the only horse to have won over 1000m at Flemington and is undefeated in three attempts at the track and distance.
Who Has The Raw Speed?
Nature Strip has recorded the quickest 1000m time when running 00:56.00 behind Gytrash who went 00:55.81 in the Concorde Stakes at Randwick.
The only horse to have recorded anything near that time over 1000m is Fabergino who ran 00:56.57 and 00:56.55 at her two most recent runs at the track and trip.
And the latest of those runs was with 61.5kg on her back.
As far as closing speed goes, nothing compares with the exciting September Run whose final sectionals are those of an extremely gifted athlete.
She is the only horse in the race to have gone under 11 seconds for her final 200m when running 10.94 for her final 200m in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes (1100m) at Flemington.
The following start, she clocked 32.04 for her final 600m in the Poseidon Stakes (1100m) at Flemington, and that is the quickest any of these horses have gone over their final 600m.
Even over 1000m nothing has come close to September Run’s late sectional times.
Who Will Win The 2021 Black Caviar Lightning?
Originally, I was looking for September Run in this event as the hot early pace should set it up for something to swoop, and she clearly has the best turn of foot.
She also gets in with just 53.5kg on her back and Craig Williams retains the ride after steering her to victory at her last three at the track.
However, she simply looked outclassed by Bivouac in a 900m barrier trial at Rosehill on January 27.
Both horses just strode down the straight under a hold, but Bivouac effortlessly put a gap on September Run and I wonder if she may have a lot of improvement to come.
Pippie has won four from four first-up including two Group 1s at her most recent fresh runs, but I’m not sure she’ll be as effective at Flemington over this trip.
Her two Group 1 wins were at Caulfield and Moonee Valley where she was able to kick off the bend and sustain that speed to the line to just hold on.
I think the challengers will come thick and fast down the Flemington straight and I think that leaves Pippie vulnerable.
I like the switch to Jamie Kah for Nature Strip.
Much similar to Kah recently picking up rides on Sirius Suspect who can also race keenly, he relaxed beautifully for Kah and went to another level winning consecutive races.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nature Strip bounce back to his brilliant best with the balanced Kah aboard.
Initially, I thought Fabergino was outclassed here, but on times, figures and weights, she’s right in the mix.
She just keeps finding in her races and she only needs to find another length or so at this weight to match Nature Strip’s best effort over this trip.
However, Bivouac had her covered at the 300m mark in the VRC Classic (1200m), and if he brings that form, he’ll destroy her again.
While there are a couple of small detractors about Bivouac, and the price is one of them, his last start form and his recent barrier trial suggest he’s clearly the one to beat.
It’s a pity when the bookmaker get it right but I think they have the market spot on with Bivouac favourite ahead of Nature Strip while September Run, Fabergino and Pippie are the only others under double figures.
Black Caviar Lightning Tips:
Despite being favourite, I think Bivouac represents good value at $2.70. His recent best is much better than anything else here and he just needs to bring that to win comfortably.
He looked awesome in his recent barrier trial and was about to give Nature Strip windburn with one shake of the reigns.